Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area (Findikli,NE of Turkey) by likelihood-frequency ratio and weighted linear combination models

Landslides are very common natural problems in the Black Sea Region of Turkey due to the steep topography, improper use of land cover and adverse climatic conditions for landslides. In the western part of region, many studies have been carried out especially in the last decade for landslide susceptibility mapping using different evaluation methods such as deterministic approach, landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses. The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Findikli district, Rize) located at the eastern part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey by likelihood frequency ratio (LRM) model and weighted linear combination (WLC) model and to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, landslide inventory map of the area were prepared for the years of 1983 and 1995 by detailed field surveys and aerial-photography studies. Slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from drainage lines, distance from roads and the land-cover of the study area are considered as the landslide-conditioning parameters. The differences between the susceptibility maps derived by the LRM and the WLC models are relatively minor when broad-based classifications are taken into account. However, the WLC map showed more details but the other map produced by LRM model produced weak results. The reason for this result is considered to be the fact that the majority of pixels in the LRM map have high values than the WLC-derived susceptibility map. In order to validate the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with the landslide inventory map. Although the landslides do not exist in the very high susceptibility class of the both maps, 79% of the landslides fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the WLC map while this is 49% for the LRM map. This shows that the WLC model exhibited higher performance than the LRM model.     

A study of microearthquake seismicity and focal mechanisms within the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey) using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs)

We have carried out seismological observations within the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey) in order to investigate the seismicity induced after Gölcük–İzmit (Kocaeli) earthquake (M_w 7.4) of August 17, 1999, using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs). High-resolution hypocenters and focal mechanisms of microearthquakes have been investigated during this Marmara Sea OBS project involving deployment of 10 OBSs within the Çınarcık (eastern Marmara Sea) and Central-Tekirdağ (western Marmara Sea) basins during April–July 2000. Little was known about microearthquake activity and their source mechanisms in the Marmara Sea. We have detected numerous microearthquakes within the main basins of the Sea of Marmara along the imaged strands of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). We obtained more than 350 well-constrained hypocenters and nine composite focal mechanisms during 70 days of observation. Microseismicity mainly occurred along the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) in the Marmara Sea. There are a few events along the Southern Shelf. Seismic activity along the Main Marmara Fault is quite high, and focal depth distribution was shallower than 20 km along the western part of this fault, and shallower than 15 km along its eastern part. From high-resolution relative relocation studies of some of the microearthquake clusters, we suggest that the western Main Marmara Fault is subvertical and the eastern Main Marmara Fault dips to south at 45°. Composite focal mechanisms show a strike-slip regime on the western Main Marmara Fault and complex faulting (strike-slip and normal faulting) on the eastern Main Marmara Fault.     

Petrogenesis of plio-quaternary intra-plate continental alkaline lavas from the İskenderun Gulf (Southern Turkey): Evidence for metasomatized lithospheric mantle

The Quaternary alkaline volcanic field of Southern Turkey is characterized by intra-continental plate-type magmatic products, exposed to the north of the ?skenderun Gulf along a NE-SW trending East Anatolian Fault, to the west of its intersection with the N–S trending Dead Sea Fault zone. The ?skenderun Gulf alkaline rocks are mostly silica-undersaturated with normative nepheline and olivine and are mostly classified as basanites and alkaline basalts with their low-silica contents ranging between 43 and 48?wt.% SiO₂. They display Ocean Island Basalt (OIB)–type trace element patterns characterized by enrichments in large-ion-lithophile elements (LILE) and light rare earth element (LREE), and have (La/Yb)_N?=?8.8–17.7 and (Hf/Sm)_N?=?0.9–1.6 similar to those of basaltic rocks found in intraplate suites. The basanitic rocks have limited variations Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.70307–0.70324, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.512918–0.521947), whereas the alkali basalts display more evolved Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.70346-0.70365, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.512887–0.521896). The ?skenderun Gulf alkaline rocks also display limited Pb isotopic variations with ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb?=?18.75–19.09 ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb?=?15.61–15.66 and²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb?=?38.65–39.02, indicating that they originated from an enriched lithospheric mantle source. Calculated fractionation vectors indicate that clinopyroxene and olivine are the main fractionating mineral phases. Similarly, based on Sr-Nd isotopic ratios, the assimilation and fractional crystallization (AFC) modeling shows that the alkali basalts were affected by AFC processes (r?=?0.2) and were slightly contaminated by the upper crustal material.The high TiO₂ contents, enrichments in Ba and Nb, and depletions in Rb can likely be explained by the existence of amphibole in the mantle source, which might, in turn, indicate that the source mantle has been affected by metasomatic processes. The modeling based on relative abundances of trace elements suggests involvement of amphibole-bearing peridotite as the source material. ?skenderun Gulf alkaline rocks can thus be interpreted as the products of variable extent of mixing between melts from both amphibole-bearing peridotite and dry peridotite.     

Forward Modeling with Forced Neural Networks for Gravity Anomaly Profıle

In this paper, we introduce a new method called Forced Neural Network (FNN) to find the parameters of the object in geophysical section respect to gravity anomaly assuming the prismatic model. The aim of the geological modeling is to find the shape and location of underground structure, which cause the anomalies, in 2D cross section. At the first stage, we use one neuron to model the system and apply back propagation algorithm to find out the density difference. At the second level, quantization is applied to the density differences and mean square error of the system is computed. This process goes on until the mean square error of the system is small enough. First, we use FNN to two synthetic data, and then the Sivas–Gürün basin map in Turkey is chosen as a real data application. Anomaly values of the cross section, which is taken from the gravity anomaly map of Sivas–Gürün basin, are very close to those obtained from the proposed method.     

A rapid seismic safety assessment method for mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings

The majority of existing buildings are not safe against earthquakes in most of the developing countries. Existing building stocks should be assessed with a seismic safety assessment method before a devastating earthquake. Cheaper and quicker rapid seismic safety assessment methods can be used instead of code-based assessment methods to determine the seismic performance of existing buildings. In this study, an approach was introduced to determine the seismic performance of existing mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings with fewer parameters and process steps than code-based detailed assessment procedures. Calibration and regulation of the introduced method were conducted on the 39 collapsed buildings’ projects in 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake. Finally, 55 existing buildings located in Eskisehir, Turkey, assessed with this calibrated method and the results were compared with the results of a code-based detailed assessment method; the results showed a very good agreement of about 83%. This study shows that the proposed method can be applied for the determination of the seismic performance of existing mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings quickly and without compromising reliability.     

Sea level variability at Antalya and Mente? tide gauges in Turkey: atmospheric, steric and land motion contributions

Sea level trends and interannual variability at Antalya and Menteş tide gauges are investigated during the 1985–2001 period, quantifying the roles of atmospheric, steric and local land motion contributions. Tide gauge sea level measurements, temperature/salinity climatologies and GPS data are used in the analyses and the results are compared with the output of a barotropic model forced by atmospheric pressure and wind. The overall sea level trends at two tide gauges collocated with GPS are in the range of 5.5 to 7.9 mm/yr during the study period, but showing different behaviour in the sub-periods 1985–1993 and 1993–2001 due to variations in the contributing factors both in space and time. After the removal of the atmospheric forcing and steric contribution from sea level records, the resulting trends vary between 1.9 to 4.5 mm/yr in Antalya and −1.2 to −11.6 mm/yr in Menteş depending on the period considered. Vertical land movement estimated from GPS data seems to explain the high positive residual trend in Antalya during the whole period. On the other hand, the source of the highly negative sea level trend of about −14 mm/yr in Menteş during 1985–1993 could not be resolved with the available datasets. Interannual variability of wind and atmospheric pressure appear to dominate the sea level at both tide gauges during the study period. Atmospheric and steric contributions together account for ∼50% of the total sea level variance at interannual time scales. Mass induced sea level variations which were not considered in this study may help to close the sea level trend budgets as well as to better explain the interannual sea level variance.     

An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.     

A comparison of landslide susceptibility maps produced by logistic regression, multi-criteria decision, and likelihood ratio methods: a case study at ?zmir, Turkey

The main purpose of this study is to compare the use of logistic regression, multi-criteria decision analysis, and a likelihood ratio model to map landslide susceptibility in and around the city of İzmir in western Turkey. Parameters, such as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, faults, drainage lines, and roads, were considered. Landslide susceptibility maps were produced using each of the three methods and then compared and validated. Before the modeling and validation, the observed landslides were separated into two groups. The first group was for training, and the other group was for validation steps. The accuracy of models was measured by fitting them to a validation set of observed landslides. For validation process, the area under curvature (AUC) approach was applied. According to the AUC values of 0.810, 0.764, and 0.710 for logistic regression, likelihood ratio, and multi-criteria decision analysis, respectively, logistic regression was determined to be the most accurate method among the other used landslide susceptibility mapping methods. Based on these results, logistic regression and likelihood ratio models can be used to mitigate hazards related to landslides and to aid in land-use planning.     

Earthquake shaking probabilities for communities on Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Comprehensive risk assessments are fundamental to effective emergency management. These assessments need to identify the range of hazards (or perils) an entity is exposed to and quantify the specific threats associated with each of those hazards. While hazard identification is commonly, if not formally, conducted in most circumstances, specific threat analysis is often overlooked for a variety of reasons, one of which is poor communication with subject matter experts. This poor communication is often attributable to an adherence to scientific jargon and missed opportunities to simplify information. In Canada, for example, earthquake hazard calculations have been readily available to engineers and scientists for decades. This hazard information, however, is expressed in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) or spectral accelerations (SA) that are foreign concepts to most emergency managers, community decision-makers and the public-at-large. There is, therefore, a need to more clearly, simply and effectively express seismic hazard information to the non-scientific community. This paper provides crustal, sub-crustal and subduction interface earthquake shaking probabilities, expressed as simple percentages for each of 57 locations across Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Calculations present the likelihood of earthquake shaking on Vancouver Island as the probabilities of exceeding each of three shaking intensity thresholds (“widely felt”; onset of “non-structurally damaging” shaking; and onset of “structurally damaging” shaking) over four timeframes (10, 25, 50 and 100 years). Results are based on the latest Geological Survey of Canada hazard models used for the 2010 national building code and are presented in both tabular and graphic formats. This simplified earthquake hazard information is offered to aid local residents, organizations and governments in understanding and assessing their risk and to encourage and facilitate sound earthquake preparedness funding decisions.