Global warming trend without the contributions from decadal variability of the Arctic Oscillation

Climate change associated with recent global warming is most prominent in the Arctic and subarctic. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a dominant atmospheric phenomenon in the Northern Hemisphere. Decadal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) associated with the AO index shows high correlation with recent global warming trend. In this study, the SAT variability in the Northern Hemisphere is separated in contributions from decadal variability by the AO and remaining components.The results indicate that the decadal variability of the AO index shows high correlation with the SAT variation until 1990. The AO index and SAT variabilities show a negative trend during 1949–1969, while the trend is positive during 1969–1989. In addition, the spatial distribution pattern of the SAT linear trend during each period shows the same pattern as AO. However, while the AO index indicates a negative trend, the SAT trend is continuously positive also after 1990. This warming pattern appearing after 1990 is caused by the Arctic amplification.Although the AO has a large amplitude on local scale, the AO is almost dynamically orthogonal to the hemispheric warming component. However, the AO can be related to the decadal variability of the Arctic and subarctic temperature change through the feedbacks by climate sub-systems.     

Damage evaluation models of reinforced concrete buildings based on the damage statistics and simulated strong motions during the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu earthquake

We have tried to estimate the yield shear strengths of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings based on the damage statistics in Kobe surveyed after the Hyogo‐ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake of 1995 and the non‐linear response analyses for synthetic waveforms calculated from a complex seismic source and a three‐dimensional basin structure. First, a set of building models that represented the RC building stock in Kobe was constructed and plausible non‐linear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom models with four different numbers of stories were created based on the current seismic code and construction practice. For response analysis the damage criterion and the strength distribution should be assumed a priori. When the damage ratios for these standard models were calculated it was found that the damage ratios were so high that we had to increase the average yield strengths in order to match the calculated damage ratios to those observed. After searching the best models it was found that the estimated average yield strengths should be much higher than those based on the code, especially for low‐rise buildings. Using this set of building models we succeeded in reproducing the belt‐shaped area with high damage ratios in Kobe. One can apply the proposed methodology to different countries if there is enough damage data, strong motion records, and building statistics. If there is sparse damage data at several locations only, then our models can be adjusted to reproduce observed damage data and used for damage prediction as a first‐order approximation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.