On the feasibility of using a lake water balance model to infer rainfall: an example from Lake Victoria

Abstract

A water balance model of Lake Victoria that can be used to assess rainfall from lake level, is derived. The model utilizes satellite estimates of rainfall directly over the lake. The model, initially derived and calibrated for the period 1956–1978, is reformulated here in such a way that all water balance terms except evaporation can be calculated from a combination of catchment rainfall and level of the lake. The reformulated model is validated and used to predict lake level fluctuations during the period 1931–1994. An error analysis is also performed. The model is then “inverted” to solve for mean rainfall conditions during various intervals of changing lake levels. For modern periods with known rainfall conditions, the error in model estimates is of the order of 1%.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FRESHWATERS OF ARCTIC AND SUBARCTIC NORTH AMERICA

Region 2 comprises arctic and subarctic North America and is underlain by continuous or discontinuous permafrost. Its freshwater systems are dominated by a low energy environment and cold region processes. Central northern areas are almost totally influenced by arctic air masses while Pacific air becomes more prominent in the west, Atlantic air in the east and southern air masses at the lower latitudes. Air mass changes will play an important role in precipitation changes associated with climate warming. The snow season in the region is prolonged resulting in long-term storage of water so that the spring flood is often the major hydrological event of the year, even though, annual rainfall usually exceeds annual snowfall. The unique character of ponds and lakes is a result of the long frozen period, which affects nutrient status and gas exchange during the cold season and during thaw. GCM models are in close agreement for this region and predict temperature increases as large as 4°C in summer and 9°C in winter for a 2 × CO₂ scenario. Palaeoclimate indicators support the probability that substantial temperature increases have occurred previously during the Holocene. The historical record indicates a temperature increase of > 1°C in parts of the region during the last century. GCM predictions of precipitation change indicate an increase, but there is little agreement amongst the various models on regional disposition or magnitude. Precipitation change is as important as temperature change in determining the water balance. The water balance is critical to every aspect of hydrology and limnology in the far north. Permafrost close to the surface plays a major role in freshwater systems because it often maintains lakes and wetlands above an impermeable frost table, which limits the water storage capabilities of the subsurface. Thawing associated with climate change would, particularly in areas of massive ice, stimulate landscape changes, which can affect every aspect of the environment. The normal spring flooding of ice-jammed north-flowing rivers, such as the Mackenzie, is a major event, which renews the water supply of lakes in delta regions and which determines the availability of habitat for aquatic organisms. Climate warming or river damming and diversion would probably lead to the complete drying of many delta lakes. Climate warming would also change the characteristics of ponds that presently freeze to the bottom and result in fundamental changes in their limnological characteristics. At present, the food chain is rather simple usually culminating in lake trout or arctic char. A lengthening of the growing season and warmer water temperature would affect the chemical, mineral and nutrient status of lakes and most likely have deleterious effects on the food chain. Peatlands are extensive in region 2. They would move northwards at their southern boundaries, and, with sustained drying, many would change form or become inactive. Extensive wetlands and peatlands are an important component of the global carbon budget, and warmer and drier conditions would most likely change them from a sink to a source for atmospheric carbon. There is some evidence that this may be occurring already. Region 2 is very vulnerable to global warming. Its freshwater systems are probably the least studied and most poorly understood in North America. There are clear needs to improve our current knowledge of temperature and precipitation patterns; to model the thermal behaviour of wetlands, lakes and rivers; to understand better the interrelationships of cold region rivers with their basins; to begin studies on the very large lakes in the region; to obtain a firm grasp of the role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle; and to link the terrestrial water balance to the thermal and hydrological regime of the polar sea. Overall, there is a strong need for basic research and long-term monitoring. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE ATMOSPHERES OF SATURN AND TITAN IN THE NEAR-INFRARED: FIRST RESULTS OF CASSINI/VIMS

The wide spectral coverage and extensive spatial, temporal, and phase-angle mapping capabilities of the Visual Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) onboard the Cassini-Huygens Orbiter are producing fundamental new insights into the nature of the atmospheres of Saturn and Titan. For both bodies, VIMS maps over time and solar phase angles provide information for a multitude of atmospheric constituents and aerosol layers, providing new insights into atmospheric structure and dynamical and chemical processes. For Saturn, salient early results include evidence for phosphine depletion in relatively dark and less cloudy belts at temperate and mid-latitudes compared to the relatively bright and cloudier Equatorial Region, consistent with traditional theories of belts being regions of relative downwelling. Additional Saturn results include (1) the mapping of enhanced trace gas absorptions at the south pole, and (2) the first high phase-angle, high-spatial-resolution imagery of CH₄ fluorescence. An additional fundamental new result is the first nighttime near-infrared mapping of Saturn, clearly showing discrete meteorological features relatively deep in the atmosphere beneath the planet’s sunlit haze and cloud layers, thus revealing a new dynamical regime at depth where vertical dynamics is relatively more important than zonal dynamics in determining cloud morphology. Zonal wind measurements at deeper levels than previously available are achieved by tracking these features over multiple days, thereby providing measurements of zonal wind shears within Saturn’s troposphere when compared to cloudtop movements measured in reflected sunlight. For Titan, initial results include (1) the first detection and mapping of thermal emission spectra of CO, CO₂, and CH₃D on Titan’s nightside limb, (2) the mapping of CH₄ fluorescence over the dayside bright limb, extending to ∼ ∼750 km altitude, (3) wind measurements of ∼ ∼0.5 ms⁻¹, favoring prograde, from the movement of a persistent (multiple months) south polar cloud near 88° S latitude, and (4) the imaging of two transient mid-southern-latitude cloud features.     

On the diurnal cycle of cloudiness over Lake Victoria and its influence on evaporation from the lake

Abstract

The diurnal cycle of convective activity and cloudiness over Lake Victoria, is examined using infrared satellite data. The results indicate that geographically distinct patterns of convection occur. Maximum convective activity occurs over the northwestern quadrant of the lake and tends to occur during the night time. There is a similar pattern in the southwest but the convection is relatively infrequent. In the eastern quadrants convective activity is somewhat weaker than in the northwest, but considerably stronger than in the surrounding catchment. There maximum convection occurs during late afternoon and early evening hours during most months, as over the surrounding land. The influence of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness on evaporation is also assessed, using both two simplistic scenarios and using realistic estimates. The calculations indicate that the actual diurnal cycles have a significant impact on evaporation, such that it ranges from 1527 mm year^?1 in the northwest to 1164 mm year^?1 in the southeast.     

Geochemical and Isotopic Evidence for Crustal Assimilation Beneath Krafla, Iceland

The Krafla volcanic system consists of a central volcano andassociated fissure swarm in the NE axial rift zone of Iceland.Lavas spanning the whole of Krafla's exposed volcanic history(estimated to be 0-> 300 ka) have been analysed and rangein composition from olivine tholeiite to rhyolite. Major-elementcompositions suggest that fractional crystallization exertsthe main control over the differentiation process. However,K₂O and the very incompatible trace elements, Rb, Th, and U,are all enriched beyond the extent expected by closed-systemfractional crystallization. Fractionation coupled with periodicreplenishment and tapping of the reservoir is unlikely to beresponsible for this enrichment, despite the geophysical evidencesuggesting a large number of inflations and deflations of ashallow magma reservoir (Tryggvason, 1986). Th- and O-isotope results confirm the work of previous authorsthat crustal assimilation is operating on a local scale beneathKrafla. A model is suggested, fitting both the Th- and O-isotopicdata, which involves the partial melting and incorporation ofa hydrothermally altered wall-rock contaminant during fractionalcrystallization (i. e., AFC processes). This process of partialmelting is likely to enhance the most highly incompatible elementconcentrations (e. g., increasing Rb/Zr) more than expectedby closed-system fractional crystallization.     

Olivine Tholeiites from Krafla, Iceland: Evidence for Variations in Melt Fraction within a Plume

Olivine tholeiites (8–10 wt. % MgO) from Krafla show significantcorrelations between major elements (notably Fe) and incompatibletrace elements. In particular, the samples with the highestFe contents are the most enriched in elements such as K, Ti,and light rare earth elements (LREE_s). The observed trends cannotbe explained by fractional crystallization of olivine, plagioclase,or clinopyrox-ene from a single primary magma, nor are theylikely to result from crustal contamination. The simplest explanationfor the compositional variations is that they result from imperfectmixing of primary melts, produced at different levels in theupwelling asthenosphere, which later underwent olivine fractionation.Nd and Sr isotopic data hint at the possibility that some mixingbetween two (plume and non-plume) mantle sources may also berequired. The average olivine tholeiite composition is comparedwith the average compositions of melts, predicted from parameterizationsof melting experiments, produced from mantle with differentpotential temperatures. The predicted compositions were correctedfor fractional crystallization before the comparison was made.The data compare well with the predicted average compositionof melt from mantle with a potential temperature of {small tilde}1580C. Differences between the observed and predicted compositions(notably higher Fe and lower Na in the Krafla basalts) are ascribedeither to errors related to the modelling or to the effect oftemperature- and velocity-structure of the mantle plume beneathIceland. The average REE composition of the olivine tholeiiteswas then inverted to obtain the variation of melt fraction withdepth. The predicted melt fraction rises from 00 at a depthof {small tilde} 140 km (consistent with a potential temperatureclose to 1580 C) to a maximum value of {small tilde} 03 atthe surface. The predicted melt thickness ({small tilde}22 kmwhen corrected for fractional crystallization) is consistentwith geophysical estimates of crustal thickness.