Subsurface Water Masses in the Central North Pacific Transition Region: The Repeat Section along the 18° Meridian

A repeat hydrographic section has been maintained over two decades along the 180° meridian across the subarctic-subtropical transition region. The section is naturally divided into at least three distinct zones. In the Subarctic Zone north of 46°N, the permanent halocline dominates the density stratification, supporting a subsurface temperature minimum (STM). The Subarctic Frontal Zone (SFZ) between 42°–46°N is the region where the subarctic halocline outcrops. To the south is the Subtropical Zone, where the permanent thermocline dominates the density stratification, containing a pycnostad of North Pacific Central Mode Water (CMW). The STM water colder than 4°C in the Subarctic Zone is originated in the winter mixed layer of the Bering Sea. The temporal variation of its core temperature lags 12–16 months behind the variations of both the winter sea surface temperature (SST) and the summer STM temperature in the Bering Sea, suggesting that the thermal anomalies imposed on the STM water by wintertime air-sea interaction in the Bering Sea spread over the western subarctic gyre, reaching the 180° meridian within a year or so. The CMW in this section originates in the winter mixed layer near the northern edge of the Subtropical Zone between 160°E and 180°. The CMW properties changed abruptly from 1988 to 1989; its temperature and salinity increased and its potential density decreased. It is argued that these changes were caused by the climate regime shift in 1988/1989 characterized by weakening of the Aleutian Low and the westerlies and increase in the SST in the subarctic-subtropical transition region. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of climate change on coastal fresh groundwater resources

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on fresh groundwater resources specifically salinity intrusion in water resources stressed coastal aquifers. Our assessment used the Hadley Centre climate model, HadCM3 with high and low emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2) for years 2000–2099. In both scenarios, the annual fresh groundwater resources losses indicate an increasing long-term trend in all stressed areas, except in the northern Africa/Sahara region. We also found that precipitation and temperature individually did not show good correlations with fresh groundwater loss. However, the relationship between the aridity index and fresh groundwater loss exhibited a strong negative correlation. We also discuss the impacts of loss of fresh groundwater resources on socio-economic activities, mainly population growth and per capita fresh groundwater resources.     

Indian Ocean dipole interpreted in terms of recharge oscillator theory

In this paper we use sea surface height (SSH) derived from satellite altimetry and an analytical linear equatorial wave model to interpret the evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the framework of recharge oscillator theory. The specific question we address is whether heat content in the equatorial band, for which SSH is a proxy, is a predictor of IOD development as it is for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific. We find that, as in the Pacific, there are zonally coherent changes in heat content along the equator prior to the onset of IOD events. These changes in heat content are modulated by wind-forced westward propagating Rossby waves in the latitude band 5°–10°S, which at the western boundary reflect into Kelvin waves trapped to the equator. The biennial character of the IOD is affected by this cycling of wave energy between 5° and 10°S and the equator. Heat content changes are a weaker leading indicator of IOD sea surface temperature anomaly development than is the case for ENSO in the Pacific though because other factors are at work in generating IOD variability, one of which is ENSO forcing itself through changes in the Walker Circulation.     

Climate change and adaptation: an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects in poorly-gauged regions

Various frameworks related to climate change and adaptations that have been developed to date have notable benefits as well as significant limitations. It is not always practical to implement advanced climate change frameworks in situations with limited data availability. Social aspects, such as people’s experience and perception, are often under-prioritized. Therefore, this study introduces an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects of climate change to assess its impacts on water resources and to evaluate differing adaptation options in poorly gauged basins. A case study of the Kali Gandaki River Basin (KGRB) in western Nepal is presented to demonstrate the applicability of this framework. Results of the study show that people of the mountainous Mustang district in the KGRB have perceived climate change or climate variability, its impacts on water resources, as well as other water-related issues and potential adaptations or responses. Furthermore, evaluation of people’s perception using available physical data confirms the increase in temperature and average annual discharge in the Kali Gandaki River as well as poor water use, as a major problem at all levels in the basin. Despite increasing water availability, a concurrent increase in water use is difficult due to topographic constraints on irrigation development. However, the impacts of climate change are particularly severe in Mustang, owing to the fact that a large proportion of the population depends on a climate-sensitive livelihood like agriculture. Therefore, various adaptation options are identified in the agricultural sector, and one relevant option is further evaluated. The framework developed in this study has the potential to be further applied to other poorly gauged basins.     

Prediction of pile response to lateral spreading by 3-D soil–water coupled dynamic analysis: Shaking in the direction perpendicular to ground flow

The 1995 Kobe earthquake seriously damaged numerous buildings with pile foundations adjacent to quay walls. The seismic behavior of a pile group is affected by movement of quay walls, pile foundations, and liquefied backfill soil. For such cases, a three-dimensional (3-D) soil–water coupled dynamic analysis is a promising tool to predict overall behavior. We report predictions of large shake table test results to validate 3-D soil–water coupled dynamic analyses, and we discuss liquefaction-induced earth pressure on a pile group during the shaking in the direction perpendicular to ground flow. Numerical analyses predicted the peak displacement of footing and peak bending moment of the group pile. The earth pressure on the pile in the crustal layer is most important for the evaluation of the peak bending moment along the piles. In addition, the larger curvatures in the bending moment distribution along the piles at the water side in the liquefied ground were measured and predicted.     

Large kinetic power in FRII radio jets

We investigate the total kinetic powers (L _j) and ages (t _age) of powerful jets of four FR II radio sources (Cygnus A, 3C 223, 3C 284, and 3C 219) by the detail comparison of the dynamical model of expanding cocoons with observed ones. It is found that these sources have quite large kinetic powers with the ratio of L _j to the Eddington luminosity (L _Edd) resides in 0.02<L _j/L _Edd<10. Reflecting the large kinetic powers, we also find that the total energy stored in the cocoon (E _c) exceed the energy derived from the minimum energy condition (E _min): 2<E _c/E _min<160. This implies that a large amount of kinetic power is carried by invisible components such as thermal leptons (electron and positron) and/or protons.     

Thin layer element method for dynamic soil-structure interaction analysis of axi-symmetric structure in submerged soil

The three-dimensional thin layer element method is formulated for the dynamic response analysis of an axi-symmetric structure in submerged soil. Biot's wave equation for fluid-filled porous medium is used in the formulation. The three-dimensional thin layer element method computes the wave numbers and their associated mode shapes, for both Rayleigh waves and Love waves in submerged soil, which define the characteristics of the waves. The submerged condition affects the characteristics of the Rayleigh waves in soil. As a result, it alters substantially the soil-structure interaction stresses if the permeability of the soil is relatively large and, to less extent, the response of the structure. The thin layer element method is far more efficient than the finite element method for analyzing the fluid-filled porous medium, yet capable of taking into account a multi-layered inhomogeneous soil.     

Image‐based modelling and analysis of microstructures for two‐scale problems in geomechanics

This paper focuses on the geometry modelling and numerical analysis of microstructures of geomaterials employing the concept of image‐based engineering. The novel modelling and analysis techniques with digital images are incorporated with the mathematical homogenization method to study the interaction between individual phases, each of whose shape and spatial distribution are irregular. Owing to the distinctive features of these computational techniques, the evaluation of homogenized properties for geomaterials provides the reliable information about the micro‐ or macroscopic mechanical behaviours for engineering practice. It is, naturally, inevitable that engineers' demands on safety and efficient design place emphasis on quantitative estimates for these values. Thus, calibration accompanied with actual measurements comes within the scope of this study so that these properties would be realistic and practical from the engineering viewpoints. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fifteen years progress of the TRITON array in the Western Pacific and Eastern Indian Oceans

The Triangle Trans‐Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) project by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology began with deployment in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in 1998 and has shifted to steady, long-term observations since 1999. After on-site inter-comparison with the Autonomous Temperature Line Acquisition System mooring system of the Tropical Atmosphere and Ocean (TAO) array by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the TRITON array became the international TAO/TRITON array in 2000 as a key component of the Global Ocean and Climate Observing Systems. The TAO/TRITON array took over from the TAO array, which was developed during the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere program (1985–1994), and replaced the western part of TAO with new additional real-time measurements of salinity and ocean currents. In 2001, two TRITON moorings were deployed in the eastern Indian Ocean for capturing the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole. From this initiative, the Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS) was designed, and the Indian Ocean mooring array (Research Moored Array for Africa–Asian–Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction) was developed as a key component of IndOOS. In this paper, 15 years of progress in the TRITON project in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans is reviewed with regards to scientific outcomes, technological development, and collaborations with international and domestic partners. Future directions for sustainable observation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are also discussed.