Is robustness really robust? How different definitions of robustness impact decision-making under climate change

Robust decision-making is being increasingly used to support environmental resources decisions and policy analysis under changing climate and society. In this context, a robust decision is a decision that is as much as possible insensitive to a large degree of uncertainty and ensures certain performance across multiple plausible futures. Yet, the concept of robustness is neither unique nor static. Multiple robustness metrics, such as maximin, optimism-pessimism, max regret, have been proposed in the literature, reflecting diverse optimistic/pessimistic attitudes by the decision maker. Further, these attitudes can evolve in time as a response to sequences of favorable (or adverse) events, inducing possible dynamic changes in the robustness metrics. In this paper, we explore the impact of alternative definitions of robustness and their evolution in time for a case of water resources system management under changing climate. We study the decisions of the Lake Como operator, who is called to regulate the lake by balancing irrigation supply and flood control, under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Results show a considerable variability in the system performance across multiple robustness metrics. In fact, the mis-definition of the actual decision maker’s attitude biases the simulation of its future decisions and produces a general underestimation of the system performance. The analysis of the dynamic evolution of the decision maker’s preferences further confirms the potentially strong impact of changing robustness definition on the decision-making outcomes. Climate change impact assessment studies should therefore include the definition of robustness among the uncertain parameters of the problem in order to analyze future human decisions under uncertainty.     

The particle background of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">X-IFU</Emphasis> instrument

In this paper we are going to review the latest estimates for the particle background expected on the X-IFU instrument onboard of the ATHENA mission. The particle background is induced by two different particle populations: the so called “soft protons” and the Cosmic rays. The first component is composed of low energy particles (< 100s keV) that get funnelled by the mirrors towards the focal plane, losing part of their energy inside the filters and inducing background counts inside the instrument sensitivity band. The latter component is induced by high energy particles (> 100 MeV) that possess enough energy to cross the spacecraft and reach the detector from any direction, depositing a small fraction of their energy inside the instrument. Both these components are estimated using Monte Carlo simulations and the latest results are presented here.     

A low temperature X-ray single-crystal diffraction and polarised infra-red study of epidote

The effects of low-temperature on the crystal structure of a natural epidote [Ca_1.925Fe_0.745Al_2.265Ti_0.004Si_3.037O₁₂(OH), a = 8.8924(7), b = 5.6214(3), c = 10.1547(6)? and β = 115.396(8)° at room conditions, Sp. Gr. P2₁ /m] have been investigated with a series of structure refinements down to 100 K on the basis of X-ray single-crystal diffraction data. The reflection conditions confirm that the space group is maintained within the T-range investigated. Structural refinements at all temperatures show the presence of Fe³⁺ at the octahedral M(3) site only [%Fe(M3) = 70.6(4)% at 295 K]. Only one independent proton site was located and two possible H-bonds occur, with O(10) as donor and O(4) and O(2) as acceptors. The H-bonding scheme is maintained down to 100 K and is supported by single crystal room-T polarised FTIR data. FTIR Spectra over the region 4,000–2,500 cm⁻¹ are dominated by the presence of a strongly pleochroic absorption feature which can be assigned to protonation of O(10)–O(4). Previously unobserved splitting of this absorption features is consistent with a NNN influence due to the presence of Al and Fe³⁺ on the nearby M(3) site. An additional relatively minor absorption feature in FTIR spectra can be tentatively assigned to protonation of O(10)–O(2). Low-T does not affect significantly the tetrahedral and octahedral bond distances and angles, even when distances are corrected for “rigid body motions”. A more significant effect is observed for the bond distances of the distorted Ca(1)- and Ca(2)-polyhedra, especially when corrected for “non-correlated motion”. The main low-T effect is observed on the vibrational regime of the atomic sites, and in particular for the two Ca-sites. A significant reduction of the magnitude of the thermal displacement ellipsoids, with a variation of U _eq (defined as one-third of the trace of the orthogonalised U _ij tensor) by ~40% is observed for the Ca-sites between 295 and 100 K. Within the same T-range, the U _eq of the octahedral and oxygen sites decrease similarly by ~35%, whereas those of the tetrahedral cations by ~22%.     

A cross-border regional earthquake early warning system: PRESTo@CE3RN

Since 2002 the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS) in Udine (Italy), the Agencija Republike Slovenije za Okolje (ARSO) in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) in Vienna (Austria), are collecting, analyzing, archiving and exchanging seismic data in real time, initially in the framework of the EU Interreg IIIa Italia-Austria project “Trans-national seismological networks in the South-Eastern Alps”. As outcome of the successful cooperation, in the 2013 OGS, ARSO and ZAMG decided to officially merge their seismic monitoring efforts into the “Central and Eastern European Earthquake Research Network—CE³RN”. This work reports the results of a nine-month real-time test of the earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm probabilistic and evolutionary early warning system carried out at the CE³RN. The study allowed identifying the actions to be implemented in order to let the CE³RN become in the next future an efficient cross-border EEW system.

     

The double solid reactant method: II. An application to the shallow groundwaters of the Porto Plain,Vulcano Island (Italy)

This paper presents an example of application of the double solid reactant method (DSRM) of Accornero and Marini (Environmental Geology, 2007a), an effective way for modeling the fate of several dissolved trace elements during water–rock interaction. The EQ3/6 software package was used for simulating the irreversible water–rock mass transfer accompanying the generation of the groundwaters of the Porto Plain shallow aquifer, starting from a degassed diluted crateric steam condensate. Reaction path modeling was performed in reaction progress mode and under closed-system conditions. The simulations assumed: (1) bulk dissolution (i.e., without any constraint on the kinetics of dissolution/precipitation reactions) of a single solid phase, a leucite-latitic glass, and (2) precipitation of amorphous silica, barite, alunite, jarosite, anhydrite, kaolinite, a solid mixture of smectites, fluorite, a solid mixture of hydroxides, illite-K, a solid mixture of saponites, a solid mixture of trigonal carbonates and a solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates. Analytical concentrations of major chemical elements and several trace elements (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Sr and Ba) in groundwaters were satisfactorily reproduced. In addition to these simulations, similar runs for a rhyolite, a latite and a trachyte permitted to calculate major oxide contents for the authigenic paragenesis which are comparable, to a first approximation, with the corresponding data measured for local altered rocks belonging to the silicic, advanced argillic and intermediate argillic alteration facies. The important role played by both the solid mixture of trigonal carbonates as sequestrator of Mn, Zn, Cu and Ni and the solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates as scavenger of Sr and Ba is emphasized.

Thermal expansion and high-temperature P21/c–C2/c phase transition in clinopyroxene-type LiFeGe2O6 and comparison to NaFe(Si,Ge)2O6

A synthetic clinopyroxene with composition LiFe³⁺Ge₂O₆, monoclinic s.g. P2₁/c, a = 9.8792(7), b = 8.8095(5), c = 5.3754(3) Å, β = 108.844(6)°, V = 442.75(16) ų, has been studied by in situ low- and high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The variation of lattice parameters and the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, only present in the P-symmetry) with increasing temperature showed a displacive phase transition from space group P2₁/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T _tr = 789 K, first order in character, with a sudden volume increase of 1.6% and a decrease of β by 1° at the transition. This spontaneous dilatation is reversible, shows a limited hysteresis of ±10°C, and corresponds to the vanishing of the b-type reflections, thus indicating a symmetry increase to space group C2/c. Below T _tr an expansion is observed for all the cell parameters, while the β angle remained almost constant; at T > T _tr the thermal volume expansion is due to dilatation of the structure in the $(\bar{1}\,0\,1) A synthetic clinopyroxene with composition LiFe³⁺Ge₂O₆, monoclinic s.g. P2₁/c, a = 9.8792(7), b = 8.8095(5), c = 5.3754(3) ?, β = 108.844(6)°, V = 442.75(16) ?³, has been studied by in situ low- and high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The variation of lattice parameters and the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, only present in the P-symmetry) with increasing temperature showed a displacive phase transition from space group P2₁/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T _tr = 789 K, first order in character, with a sudden volume increase of 1.6% and a decrease of β by 1° at the transition. This spontaneous dilatation is reversible, shows a limited hysteresis of ±10°C, and corresponds to the vanishing of the b-type reflections, thus indicating a symmetry increase to space group C2/c. Below T _tr an expansion is observed for all the cell parameters, while the β angle remained almost constant; at T > T _tr the thermal volume expansion is due to dilatation of the structure in the ([`1] 0 1)(\bar{1}\,0\,1) plane, mostly along [0 1 0], and pure shear in the (0 1 0) plane due to the decrease of β. From comparison with silicate analogues, the germanate clinopyroxenes are more expansible, while the P2₁/c expands more than the C2/c phase. The evolution of Q ² (calculated as the normalized intensity of b-type reflections) with T in the framework of the Landau theory has been done using a standard expression for a first order phase transition. We observe a jump of Q ₀² = 0.538(2) at T _tr, with T _c of 481(7) K, b/a = −2,290 K, and c/a = 3,192 K, and thus far from being tri-critical point. A closely related composition (LiFe³⁺Si₂O₆) shows an equivalent phase transition at 228 K, which is very close to the tri-critical point and 561 K cooler. This result indicates that a change in the composition of tetrahedral sites can have dramatic effects on the P2₁/c ↔ C2/c displacive phase transition in clinopyroxenes. The major changes observed in the evolution of the crystal structure with T are observed in the M2 polyhedron, with a volume decrease by ca. 13.3%, compared to ca. 1.3% observed in the M1 polyhedron. The tetrahedra behave as rigid units with neither a significant change of volume at T > T _tr (<1‰), nor a change of tilting of the basal plane. No change in coordination is observed at T > T _tr in the M2 polyhedron, which remains sixfold coordinated although a strong deformation of this polyhedron is observed. This deformation is related to a strong change by 51.4° at T _tr of the kinking angle (O3–O3–O3 angle) of the B-chain of tetrahedra, which switches from O-rotated to S-rotated [from 143.3(5)° to 194.7(6)°]. The A-chain is S-rotated at T < T _tr [206.8(5)° at 703 K] and extends by 12° at the transition.     

Response spectrum analysis for floor acceleration

The peak floor acceleration (PFA) is a critical parameter influencing the performance of non‐structural elements in buildings. This paper develops a response spectrum analysis method based on the complete quadratic combination (CQC) rule to estimate the PFA. The method accounts for the rigid contribution of truncated higher modes and the cross‐correlations between all pairs of modes. The approximation is introduced in the time domain and then formulated in the frequency domain by CQC. Application of the method to a continuous cantilever beam idealizing a building with shear walls is presented and compared with alternative formulations. The proposed method is able to provide a consistent estimation of the PFA along the entire structure, not only where the PFA is principally influenced by the first few flexible modes but also where the PFA is mainly related to the rigid response of the structure, for example, near its base. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Fundamental Plane of Black Hole Activity: Pushing Forward the Unification Scheme

We examine the disc-jet connection in stellar mass and supermassive black holes by investigating the properties of their compact emission in the hard X-ray and radio bands. We compile a sample of ∼100 active galactic nuclei with measured mass, 5 GHz core emission, and 2–10 keV luminosity, together with eight galactic black holes with a total of ∼50 simultaneous observations in the radio and X-ray bands. Using this sample, we study the correlations between the radio (L_R) and the X-ray (L_X) luminosity and the black hole mass (M). We find that the radio luminosity is correlated with both M and L_X, at a highly significant level. We show how this result can be used to extend the standard unification by orientation scheme to encompass unification by mass and accretion rate.     

Effects of limestone petrography and calcite microstructure on OPC clinker raw meals burnability

Mineralogy and Petrology - Limestone represents the main raw material for ordinary Portland cement clinker production. In this study eight natural limestones from different geological environments...