Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

On the breakdown of zircon upon “dry” thermal annealing

Zircon samples without and with secondary chemical alteration from diverse sources were subjected to heat treatment at 1400 °C for 96 h. Resulting new phases and textures suggest that decomposition of zircon into component oxides occurred in all experiments to various degrees. The crucible material was found to have a strong influence on the extent of breakdown, especially in the case of altered starting materials. In this study the progressive stages of the breakdown of zircon grains are described. The factors that may govern the decomposition are discussed, including radiation damage, secondary alteration and external reaction conditions (sample container, atmosphere). Alumina crucibles should generally be avoided in dry annealing of zircon, to minimise uncontrolled breakdown into oxides.     

S?o Francisco-Congo Craton break-up delimited by U-Pb-Hf isotopes and trace-elements of zircon from metasediments of the Ara?uaí Belt

Detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology combined with Hf isotopic and trace element data from metasedimentary rocks of the Aracuai Belt in southeastern Brazil provide evidence for break-up of the Congo-Sao Francisco Craton. The U-Pb age spectra of detrital zircons from metasediments of the Rio Doce Group(RDG) range from 900-650 Ma and define a maximum depositional age of ca. 650 Ma. Zircon trace element and whole rock data constrain an oceanic island arc as source for the deposition setting of the protoliths to the metasediments. Zircon ε_(Hf)(t) values from these rocks are positive between +1 and +15, supporting previous evidence of a Neoproterozoic extensional phase and oceanic crust formation in a precursor basin to the Aracuai Belt. Recrystallization of detrital zircon at ca. 630 Ma is compatible with a regional metamorphic event associated with terrane accretion to the Paleoproterozoic basement after transition from an extensional to a convergent regime. The juvenile nature, age spectra and trace element composition recorded in detrital zircons of metasediments from the Aracuai Belt correspond with zircons from metasedimentary rocks and oceanic crust remnants of other orogenic belts to its south. This suggests that rifting and oceanic crust formation of the entire orogenic system, the so-called Mantiqueira Province, was contemporaneous, most likely related to the opening of a large ocean. It further indicates that the cratonic blocks involved in the orogenic evolution of the Mantiqueira Province were spatially connected as early as 900 Ma.     

Correction to: New insights into the rainfall variability in the tropical Andes on seasonal and interannual time scales

Climate Dynamics - The original version of the article contained errors in Fig.     

Well placement optimization subject to realistic field development constraints

This work considers the well placement problem in reservoir management and field development optimization. In particular, it emphasizes embedding realistic and practical constraints into a mathematical optimization formulation. Such constraints are a prerequisite for the wider use of mathematical optimization techniques in well placement problems, since constraints are a way to incorporate reservoir engineering knowledge into the problem formulation. There are important design limitations that are used by the field development team when treating the well placement problem, and these limitations need to be articulated and eventually formalized within the problem before conducting the search for optimal well placements. In addition, these design limitations may be explicit or implicit. In this work, various design limitations pertaining to well locations have been developed in close collaboration with a field operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Moreover, this work focuses on developing constraint-handling capability to enforce these various considerations during optimization. In particular, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to optimize for the well locations, and various practical well placement constraints are incorporated into the PSO algorithm using two different constraint-handling techniques: a decoder procedure and the penalty method. The decoder procedure maps the feasible search space onto a cube and has the advantage of not requiring parameter tuning. The penalty method converts the constrained optimization problem into an unconstrained one by introducing an additional term, which is called a penalty function, to the objective function. In contrast to the penalty method, only feasible solutions are evaluated in the decoder method. Through numerical simulations, a comparison between the penalty method and the decoder technique is performed for two cases. We show that the decoder technique can easily be implemented for the well placement problem, and furthermore, that it performs better than the penalty method in most of the cases.     

Estimating urban above ground biomass with multi-scale LiDAR

Background

Urban trees have long been valued for providing ecosystem services (mitigation of the “heat island” effect, suppression of air pollution, etc.); more recently the potential of urban forests to store significant above ground biomass (AGB) has also be recognised. However, urban areas pose particular challenges when assessing AGB due to plasticity of tree form, high species diversity as well as heterogeneous and complex land cover. Remote sensing, in particular light detection and ranging (LiDAR), provide a unique opportunity to assess urban AGB by directly measuring tree structure. In this study, terrestrial LiDAR measurements were used to derive new allometry for the London Borough of Camden, that incorporates the wide range of tree structures typical of an urban setting. Using a wall-to-wall airborne LiDAR dataset, individual trees were then identified across the Borough with a new individual tree detection (ITD) method. The new allometry was subsequently applied to the identified trees, generating a Borough-wide estimate of AGB.

Results

Camden has an estimated median AGB density of 51.6 Mg ha^–1 where maximum AGB density is found in pockets of woodland; terrestrial LiDAR-derived AGB estimates suggest these areas are comparable to temperate and tropical forest. Multiple linear regression of terrestrial LiDAR-derived maximum height and projected crown area explained 93% of variance in tree volume, highlighting the utility of these metrics to characterise diverse tree structure. Locally derived allometry provided accurate estimates of tree volume whereas a Borough-wide allometry tended to overestimate AGB in woodland areas. The new ITD method successfully identified individual trees; however, AGB was underestimated by ≤?25% when compared to terrestrial LiDAR, owing to the inability of ITD to resolve crown overlap. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis identified assigning wood density values as the largest source of uncertainty when estimating AGB.

Conclusion

Over the coming century global populations are predicted to become increasingly urbanised, leading to an unprecedented expansion of urban land cover. Urban areas will become more important as carbon sinks and effective tools to assess carbon densities in these areas are therefore required. Using multi-scale LiDAR presents an opportunity to achieve this, providing a spatially explicit map of urban forest structure and AGB.