Stability Analysis of the Climate-Vegetation System in the Northern High Latitudes

The stability of the climate-vegetation system in the northern high latitudesis analysed with three climate system models of different complexity: A comprehensive 3-dimensional model of the climate system, GENESIS-IBIS, and two Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), CLIMBER-2 andMoBidiC. The biogeophysical feedback in the latitudinal belt 60–70° N, although positive, is not strong enough to support multiple steady states: A unique equilibriumin the climate-vegetation system is simulated by all the models on a zonal scale for present-day climate and doubled CO₂ climate.EMIC simulations with decreased insolation also reveal a unique steady state. However, the climate sensitivity to tree cover, T_F, exhibits non-linear behaviour within the models. For GENESIS-IBIS and CLIMBER-2, T_F islower for doubled CO₂ climate than for present-day climate due to a shorter snow season and increased relative significance ofthe hydrological effect of forest cover. For the EMICs, T_F is higher for low tree fraction than for high treefraction, mainly due to a time shift in spring snow melt in response to changes in tree cover. The climate sensitivity to tree coveris reduced when thermohaline circulation feedbacks are accounted for in the EMIC simulations. Simpler parameterizations of oceanic processes have opposite effects on T_F: T_F is lower in simulations with fixed SSTs and higher in simulations with mixed layer oceans. Experiments with transient CO₂ forcing show climate and vegetation not in equilibrium in the northern high latitudes at the end of the 20thcentury. The delayed response of vegetation and accelerated global warming lead to rather abrupt changes in northern vegetation cover in the first halfof the 21st century, when vegetation cover changes at double the present day rate.     

Multi-technique monitoring of ocean tide loading in northern France

We have organised afield study of ocean tide loading in the northwestern part of France, where tidal amplitudes are known to be among the highest in the world. GPS and gravimetric techniques have already proved their capability to measure such weak and high-frequency signals. In this study, these classical observations are complemented with less usual techniques, such as tiltmeter and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements. We present here the preliminary results for a common period of observations spanning from 12–19 May 2004. Additional measurements from the French Transportable Laser Ranging Station (FTLRS) were available during September and October 2004. Observation residuals are computed as the difference between the observed and the predicted time signals. We obtain small RMS residuals for GPS measurements (2.5/3.1/4.5 mm for the eastward, northward and upward components), for absolute and relative gravimetry (9 nm/s² and 13 nm/s²) and for tiltmeters (0.05 μrad for EW component). We also fit the amplitude of the main M2 tidal constituent to FTLRS observations and we find a value of 3.731 cm, which is comparable to the theoretical value.     

An incentive mechanism for reducing emissions from conversion of intact and non-intact forests

This paper presents a new accounting mechanism in the context of the UNFCCC issue on reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries, including technical options for determining baselines of forest conversions. This proposal builds on the recent scientific achievements related to the estimation of tropical deforestation rates and to the assessment of ‘intact’ forest areas. The distinction between ‘intact’ and ‘non intact’ forests used here arises from experience with satellite-based deforestation measurements and allows accounting for carbon losses from forest degradation. The proposed accounting system would use forest area conversion rates as input data. An optimal technical solution to set baselines would be to use historical average figures during the time period from 1990 to 2005. The system introduces two different schemes to account for preserved carbon: one for countries with high forest conversion rates where the desired outcome would be a reduction in their rates, and another for countries with low rates. A ‘global’ baseline rate would be used to discriminate between these two country categories (high and low rates). For the hypothetical accounting period 2013–2017 and considering 72% of the total tropical forest domain for which data are available, the scenario of a 10% reduction of the high rates and of the preservation of low rates would result in approximately 1.6 billion tCO₂ of avoided emissions. The resulting benefits of this reduction would be shared between those high-rate countries which reduced deforestation and those low-rate countries which did not increase their deforestation over an agreed threshold (e.g., half of “global” baseline rate).     

Spatio-temporal variation of suspended and sedimentary organic matter quality in the Bay of Marseilles (NW Mediterranean) assessed by biochemical and isotopic analyses

Isotopic and biochemical features of suspended particulate organic matter (POM) in the water column and of sedimentary organic matter (SOM) were investigated seasonally in the Bay of Marseilles. Biochemical compounds (carbohydrates, lipids and proteins) were consistently more concentrated in POM than in SOM, with SOM mainly composed of insoluble carbohydrates. POM displayed lower δ(13)C and higher δ(15)N values than SOM. Phytoplanktonic production represented the major contributor of POM year-round with spatial and seasonal variations. Climatic parameters and wind-induced currents created differences in POM contributions, with more important inputs of terrestrial OM at one sampling site. Spatial and seasonal variations were lower for SOM. The composition of this pool appeared to be linked with the permanent inputs of phytoplankton and Posidonia oceanica detritus. The combined use of biochemical and isotopic analyses was a useful tool to characterize OM pools and would help understanding the trophic functioning of this coastal environment.     

The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950–1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.     

Effect of N content and soil texture on the decomposition of organic matter in forest soils as revealed by solid-state CPMAS NMR spectroscopy

N has a controlling effect on litter biodegradation in the forest floor, while stabilization of organic matter in the mineral soil may be influenced by physical parameters related to soil texture. In this study, in order to understand the processes involved in soil organic matter (SOM) formation, the chemical composition of SOM was followed and evaluated with regards to N contents and soil texture. Samples were taken on sites covered with Norway spruce and displaying contrasting values of C/N ratios in the forest floor. The chemical structure of OM was characterized using solid-state CPMAS ¹³C and ¹⁵N nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, along with Proton Spin Relaxation Editing (PSRE) sequences. Four groups of sampling sites were defined based on the NMR spectra of Oh and A horizons. In each group displaying similar NMR characteristics, N content and soil texture could be highly different among sites. Some Oh horizons with similar NMR spectra had very different N contents. Highly humified OM in Oh horizons were observed mainly on sites with low N contents. Some A horizons with different soil texture displayed similar OM chemical structure. High contents of O-alkyl C in some A horizons could originate from higher fresh root material input.     

Amorce de la Sédimentation Synorogénique dans les PyrénéesVarisques. Données Chronologiques; Implications Paléogéographiques

Conodont associations and recent macrofaunal discoveries, allow us to date the beginning of detrital deposits going with the Variscan uplift in the Pyrenean marine basins during the Lower Carboniferous. Thus, the establishing of synorogenic conditions seems to have progressed from the East to the West; there appears the picture of a kind of north-Pyrenean axis already individualized in the wide Cantabrico-Pyrenean foreland.     

Monitoring forest areas from continental to territorial levels using a sample of medium spatial resolution satellite imagery

A global systematic sampling scheme has been developed by the UN FAO and the EC TREES project to estimate rates of deforestation at global or continental levels at intervals of 5 to 10 years. This global scheme can be intensified to produce results at the national level. In this paper, using surrogate observations, we compare the deforestation estimates derived from these two levels of sampling intensities (one, the global, for the Brazilian Amazon the other, national, for French Guiana) to estimates derived from the official inventories. We also report the precisions that are achieved due to sampling errors and, in the case of French Guiana, compare such precision with the official inventory precision.We extract nine sample data sets from the official wall-to-wall deforestation map derived from satellite interpretations produced for the Brazilian Amazon for the year 2002 to 2003. This global sampling scheme estimate gives 2.81 million ha of deforestation (mean from nine simulated replicates) with a standard error of 0.10 million ha. This compares with the full population estimate from the wall-to-wall interpretations of 2.73 million ha deforested, which is within one standard error of our sampling test estimate. The relative difference between the mean estimate from sampling approach and the full population estimate is 3.1%, and the standard error represents 4.0% of the full population estimate.This global sampling is then intensified to a territorial level with a case study over French Guiana to estimate deforestation between the years 1990 and 2006. For the historical reference period, 1990, Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data were used. A coverage of SPOT-HRV imagery at 20 m × 20 m resolution acquired at the Cayenne receiving station in French Guiana was used for year 2006.Our estimates from the intensified global sampling scheme over French Guiana are compared with those produced by the national authority to report on deforestation rates under the Kyoto protocol rules for its overseas department. The latter estimates come from a sample of nearly 17,000 plots analyzed from same spatial imagery acquired between year 1990 and year 2006. This sampling scheme is derived from the traditional forest inventory methods carried out by IFN (Inventaire Forestier National). Our intensified global sampling scheme leads to an estimate of 96,650 ha deforested between 1990 and 2006, which is within the 95% confidence interval of the IFN sampling scheme, which gives an estimate of 91,722 ha, representing a relative difference from the IFN of 5.4%.These results demonstrate that the intensification of the global sampling scheme can provide forest area change estimates close to those achieved by official forest inventories (<6%), with precisions of between 4% and 7%, although we only estimate errors from sampling, not from the use of surrogate data.Such methods could be used by developing countries to demonstrate that they are fulfilling requirements for reducing emissions from deforestation in the framework of an REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries) mechanism under discussion within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Monitoring systems at national levels in tropical countries can also benefit from pan-tropical and regional observations, to ensure consistency between different national monitoring systems.