The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

南极威德尔海冬季冰脊形拖曳力

利用2006年南极威德尔海冬季科学考察期间由机载激光高度计测得的海冰上表面形态数据,以拖曳分割理论为基础研究了冰脊形拖曳力及其对冰-气总拖曳力的贡献以及中性条件下对应10 m高度处风速的冰-气拖曳系数C_dn(10)。结果显示,在密集冰区,冰脊形拖曳力及其对总拖曳力的贡献随冰脊强度(脊高/脊距)的增大呈递增趋势,而随粗糙长度的增大而减小,对应于威德尔海冬季典型冰脊强度和粗糙长度,占总拖曳力的35%,说明了冰脊形拖曳力在冰-气界面动量交换中的重要作用。C_dn(10)随冰脊强度的增大而增大,但冰脊强度较小时,C_dn(10)随粗糙长度增大而增大;而对较大的冰脊强度,C_dn(10)则随粗糙长度增大而减小。     

Numerical determination of pressure-dependent effective thermal conductivity in Berea sandstone

In this paper, the methods of digital rock physics are applied to determine pressure-dependent effective thermal conductivity in rock samples. Simulations are performed with an in-house three-dimensional finite volume code. In the first step, four numerical models are derived from a given tomographic scan of Berea sandstone. Consequently, simulations of the thermal conductivity at ambient conditions are performed and validated with experimental data. In a second step, a new workflow for the determination of the pressure-dependent thermal conductivity in rock samples is elaborated, tested and calibrated. Results originating from the derived workflow show very good agreement with experimental data.     

Resonant behaviour of MHD waves on magnetic flux tubes

Resonant absorption of MHD waves on a nonuniform flux tube is investigated as a driven problem for a 1D cylindrical equilibrium. The variation of the fractional absorption is studied as a function of the frequency and its relation to the eigenvalue problem of the MHD radiating eigenmodes of the nonuniform flux tube is established. The optimal frequencies producing maximal fractional absorption are determined and the condition for total absorption is obtained. This condition defines an impedance matching and is fulfilled for an equilibrium that is fine tuned with respect to the incoming wave. The variation of the spatial wave solutions with respect to the frequency is explained as due to the variation of the real and imaginary parts of the dispersion relation of the MHD radiating eigenmodes with respect to the real driving frequency.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Uncertainty in the application of the parabolic bay shape equation: Part 2

This paper attempts to highlight issues that are relevant in the application of the Parabolic Bay Shape Equation (PBSE) to a non-equilibrium bay. For this case, the bay of Imbituba in southern Brazil was chosen. The construction of a breakwater to shelter the port of Imbituba in the south of the bay was accompanied by an increase in sedimentation to the port area from an eroding downdrift beach. Superimposed plots of the coastline of the Bay of Imbituba from different years confirm a general trend of accretion of the southern part of the bay accompanied with a retreat of the coastline in the northern part. After the application of the PBSE it became clear that the breakwater caused a change in the equilibrium state of the bay. Between 1947 and 2001 the Bay of Imbituba has changed from a dynamic equilibrium to a natural beach reshaping or self-reshaping. The tendency of the sedimentation of the southern part of the bay can be explained by the SEP associated with the new updrift diffraction point (tip of the breakwater): The seaward position of the SEP predicts a need for additional sediment in order to achieve a stable plan form.     

Nonlinear excitation of small-scale Alfvén waves by fast waves and plasma heating in the solar atmosphere

We study a nonlinear mechanism for the excitation of kinetic Alfvén waves (KAWs) by fast magneto-acoustic waves (FWs) in the solar atmosphere. Our focus is on the excitation of KAWs that have very small wavelengths in the direction perpendicular to the background magnetic field. Because of their small perpendicular length scales, these waves are very efficient in the energy exchange with plasmas and other waves. We show that the nonlinear coupling of the energy of the finite-amplitude FWs to the small-scale KAWs can be much faster than other dissipation mechanisms for fast wave, such as electron viscous damping, Landau damping, and modulational instability. The nonlinear damping of the FWs due to decay FW = KAW + KAW places a limit on the amplitude of the magnetic field in the fast waves in the solar corona and solar-wind at the level B/B ₀∼10⁻². In turn, the nonlinearly excited small-scale KAWs undergo strong dissipation due to resistive or Landau damping and can provide coronal and solar-wind heating. The transient coronal heating observed by Yohkoh and SOHO may be produced by the kinetic Alfvén waves that are excited by parametric decay of fast waves propagating from the reconnection sites.