Comparison of univariate and multivariate geographically weighted regression for estimating air temperature over Iran

Station recording air temperature (T_a) has limited spatial coverage, especially in unpopulated areas. Since temperature can change greatly both spatially and temporally, stations data are often inadequate for meteorology and subsequently climatology studies. Time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (T_s) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products, combined with digital elevation model (DEM), albedo from Era-Interim and meteorological data from 2006 to 2015, were used to estimate daily mean air temperature over Iran. Geographically weighted regression was applied to compare univariate and multivariate model accuracy. In the first model, which only interfered with land surface temperature (LST), the results indicate a weak performance with coefficient of determination up to 91% and RMSE of 1.08 to 2.9 °C. The mean accuracy of a four-variable model (which used LST, elevation, slope, NDVI) slightly increased (6.6% of the univariate model accuracy) when compared to univariate model. RMSE dropped by 19% of the first model. By addition albedo in the third model, the coefficient of determination increased significantly. This increase was 32% of the univariate model and 23.75% of the 4-variable model accuracy. The statistical comparison between the three models revealed that there is significant improvement in air estimation by applying the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method with interfering LST, NDVI, elevation, slope, and albedo with mean absolute RMSE of 0.62 °C and mean absolute R² of 0.99. In order to better illustrate the third model, t values were spatially mapped at 0.05 level.     

Precipitation rate climatology related to different cloud types using satellite imagery over Iran

Cloud types have a substantial influence on precipitation. This paper presents a study of the monthly variations of daytime different cloud types over Iran using data collected from Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra during 2001–2015, MODIS aboard Aqua during 2002–2015, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) H-series cloud type data during 2001–2009 and precipitation rate associated with different cloud types using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite products during 2001–2009. Different cloud types were determined using MODIS cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure data based on ISCCP algorithm. The results showed that stratocumulus and cumulus clouds have maximum occurrence frequency over marine areas especially southern seas. The maximum frequency of nimbostratus and deep convective occurrence occurred over mountainous regions particularly at the time of Aqua overpass and cirrus and cirrostratus are observed over southeast of Iran during warm months due to monsoon system. Altostratus cloud is extended in each month except January, at the time of Terra overpass while nimbostratus is seen at the time of Aqua overpass during warm months in the study area. Cumulus and altocumulus clouds have shown remarkable frequency in all months especially over marine regions during warm and fall months. The higher value of precipitation rate is related to altostratus with a rate approximately 7 mm/h at the time of Terra overpass during April. Altostratus has the maximum recorded precipitation rate except in Nov., Dec., Sep., and Jan. at the time of Terra overpass, whereas the maximum precipitation rate is linked to nimbostratus cloud activity (up to 5 mm/h) except for March, April, and Sep. at the time of Aqua overpass. Deep convective (up to 1.32 mm/h), cirrostratus (up to 1.11 mm/h), and cirrus (0.02 mm/h) are observed only in warm months. The results were compared with ISCCP cloud types so that precipitation rate classified from low to high and Spearman rank correlation was calculated. The results showed good agreement between these two cloud type data; however, there were few notable difference between them.     

First evidence for large earthquakes on the Deshir Fault,Central Iran Plateau

Although sliced by several strike slip faults, a large part of Central Iran remained aseismic during the period of time covered by the instrumental and historical seismic records. Stating the existence of earthquakes in the Holocene is therefore important for the assessment of the regional seismic hazard. A palaeoseismic study of the Deshir fault demonstrates that Central Iran hosted large earthquakes during latest Pleistocene and Holocene. The last event corresponds to 1 m‐deep fissures, which sandy infilling yielded an optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) age of 2.8 ± 1.4 ka. At least two previous events, outlined by older fissures and/or colluvial wedges, have been recorded over the last 10–30 ka. The magnitudes are difficult to assess because the actual slips per event are unknown. The size of the fissures and the significant vertical displacement associated with a colluvial wedge are nevertheless compatible with M ≈ 7 events along a primary strike‐slip surface break.     

Structural Characteristics,Paleoseismology and Slip Rate of the Qoshadagh Fault,Northwest of Iran

Geotectonics - Geometric and seismic parameters of the Qoshadagh Fault (QDF) were investigated to evaluate seismic hazard along this fault, which consists of three segments. The central E–W...     

A recent faulting episode in the Iranian Makran

The identification of a twofold chronology for the Quaternary alluvial deposits of Iranian Makran makes it possible to give limiting ages to some of the recent movements that have affected parts of the Zendan fault belt. One such faulting episode has been dated by this method to the period 7000-1250 yr BP. As the two alluvial units can be readily traced on air photographs, it should prove possible to extend the analysis to other parts of Iran.     

Active tectonics and strain partitioning along dextral fault system in Central Iran: Analysis of geomorphological observations and geophysical data in the Kashan region

This paper uses high-resolution images and field investigations, in conjunction with seismic reflection data, to constrain active structural deformation in the Kashan region of Central Iran. Offset stream beds and Qanats indicate right-lateral strike slip motion at a rate of about 2 mm/yr along the NW–SE trending Qom-Zefreh fault zone which has long been recognized as one of the major faults in Central Iran. However, the pattern of drainage systems across the active growing folds including deep incision of stream beds and deflected streams indicate uplift at depth on thrust faults dipping SW beneath the anticlines. Therefore, our studies in the Kashan region indicate that deformation occurs within Central Iran which is often considered to behave as a non-deforming block within the Arabia–Eurasia collision zone. The fact that the active Qom-Zefreh strike-slip fault runs parallel to the active folds, which overlie blind thrust faults, suggests that oblique motion of Arabia with respect to Eurasia is partitioned in this part of Central Iran.     

Refining the OSL age of the last earthquake on the Dheshir fault,Central Iran

In Central Iran there are several cities along the Dehshir fault, which have similar geological conditions to that of the city of Bam prior to the 2003 earthquake (Mw 6.5), during which more than 30,000 lives were lost. Optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) samples were collected from the Dehshir fault in order to place constraints on its seismic history. The single aliquot regenerative (SAR) dose measurement protocol on coarse grained quartz extracts was used for this study. This SAR protocol had to be optimized for the low OSL sensitivity by varying both the preheat temperatures and test doses used. Dose recovery tests showed that given laboratory dose could be successfully recovered. However, replicate palaeodose (D_e) data were scattered and consequently ages based on mean D_e's had large uncertainties. As this is thought to largely reflect poor bleaching conditions prior to sediment burial at the site, various statistical procedures were employed in conjunction with the stratigraphic knowledge of the site to try and extract more refined burial ages from the samples. From this the timing of the last earthquake was estimated around 2.0 ± 0.2 kyr. This refined age suggests that the earthquake catalogue of Iran is incomplete and more paleoseismological investigation is required to recognize and date the previous events of Dheshir fault.