Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

Reproductive Biology of Liocarcinus puber and L holsatus (Decapoda, Brachyura, Portunidae) from the Gower Peninsula, South Wales

Abstract. Routine monthly samples of the commercially important portunid crab Liocarcimtx puber and the sympatric but ecologically separated L. holsatus were collected from the waters and shores around the Gowcr Peninsula, South Wales, between November 1983 and September 1985.
The pubertal moult in L. puber occurred at 38 mm CW (carapace width) (females) and 42 mm CW (males). In L. holsatus this occurred at 17 mm (females) and 18.5 mm CW (males). The median size of ovigcrous females was 49.2 ± 6.7 mm CW in L. puber and 26.5 ± 2.0 mm CW in L. holsatus.
Moulting and copulation occurred between spring and autumn, the moulting period of males being earlier than that of the females. Ovigcrous L. holsatus were recorded throughout the year, with highest proportions between February and April. L. puber were ovigcrous mainly between January and March; none was recorded between September and November. The number of eggs of the wild brood (range: 39,000–280,000 for L. holsatus and 40.000–262.000 for L. puber ) was related to female body size as y = 3.099.51 c^0.1126x, r = 0.90, n = 21 and y = 6,335.98 c^0.051x, r = 0.88, n = 23, respectively, where y = number of eggs and x = carapace width (mm).
Following successful copulation, females of both species were able to spawn more than once during an intcrmoult period.     

培矮64S冷灌繁种技术研究

通过对低温敏核不育系培矮６４Ｓ育性敏感期间冷水处理后温度场分布特征和自交结实率的资料分析，得出培矮６４Ｓ的灌水始期是冷灌后的见穗期往前推１８天，终止期为见穗期往前推３天，灌水深度前１０天为１５ｃｍ，，后５天为２０ｃｍ，，为“冷繁”技术在生产上应用提供了理论依据。     

Genetic stock identification of immature chum salmon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus keta</Emphasis>) in the western Bering Sea, 2004

Genetic stock identification studies have been widely applied to Pacific salmon species to estimate stock composition of complex mixed-stock fisheries. In a September-October 2004 survey, 739 chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) specimens were collected from 23 stations in the western Bering Sea. We determined the genetic stock composition of immature chum salmon based on the previous mitochondria DNA baseline. Each regional estimate was computed based on the conditional maximum likelihood method using 1,000 bootstrap resampling and then pooled to the major regional groups: Korea - Japan - Primorie (KJP) / Russia (RU) / Northwest Alaska (NWA) / Alaska Peninsula - Southcentral Alaska - Southeast Alaska - British Columbia - Washington (ONA). The stock composition of immature chum salmon in the western Bering Sea was a mix of 0.424 KJP, 0.421 RU, 0.116 NWA, and 0.039 ONA stocks. During the study period, the contribution of Asian chum salmon stocks gradually changed from RU to KJP stock. In addition, North American populations from NWA and ONA were small but present near the vicinity of the Russian coast and the Commander Islands, suggesting that the study areas in the western Bering Sea were an important migration route for Pacific chum salmon originating both from Asia and North America during the months of September and October. These results make it possible to better understand the chum salmon stock composition of the mixed-stock fisheries in the western Bering Sea and the stock-specific distribution pattern of chum salmon on the high-seas.     

Reliability analysis of circular tunnel under hydrostatic stress field

The first-order reliability method (FORM) is used to calculate the reliability index of a circular tunnel subjected to a hydrostatic stress field. The random variables are first assumed to follow the normal distribution. Comparison between analysis using negatively correlated and uncorrelated friction angle and cohesion indicates that the results of reliability analysis are conservative if negative correlation among strength parameters is not modeled. The reliability analysis involving correlated non-normal distributions is also investigated. The probability density functions are obtained from reliability indices and compared to those generated from Monte Carlo simulations. Reliability-based design of tunnel support pressure is also illustrated.     

Geotechnical properties of a chemically stabilized soil from Malaysia with rice husk ash as an additive

Summary The stabilization of Malaysian soil by mixing with rice husk ash, a locally available waste material, to improve its engineering properties is described. Stabilizing agents, i.e. cement and lime, were added to produce the reaction products which are responsible for the enhancement of the engineering properties. Based on the strength development, it seems that lime is the more effective stabilizing agent. However, the cheap waste material can be used as partial replacement for the more expensive cement in the cement-treatment of the soil. A durability study was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this stabilization method.     

Seismic Subduction of the Nazca Ridge as Shown by the 1996–97 Peru Earthquakes

—By rupturing more than half of the shallow subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge, the great November 12, 1996 Peruvian earthquake contradicts the hypothesis that oceanic ridges subduct aseismically. The mainshock’s rupture has a length of about 200 km and has an average slip of about 1.4 m. Its moment is 1.5 × 10²⁸ dyne-cm and the corresponding M _w is 8.0. The mainshock registered three major episodes of moment release as shown by a finite fault inversion of teleseismically recorded broadband body waves. About 55% of the mainshock’s total moment release occurred south of the Nazca Ridge, and the remaining moment release occurred at the southern half of the subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge. The rupture south of the Nazca Ridge was elongated parallel to the ridge axis and extended from a shallow depth to about 65 km depth. Because the axis of the Nazca Ridge is at a high angle to the plate convergence direction, the subducting Nazca Ridge has a large southwards component of motion, 5 cm/yr parallel to the coast. The 900–1200 m relief of the southwards sweeping Nazca Ridge is interpreted to act as a "rigid indenter," causing the greatest coupling south of the ridge’s leading edge and leading to the large observed slip. The mainshock and aftershock hypocenters were relocated using a new procedure that simultaneously inverts local and teleseismic data. Most aftershocks were within the outline of the Nazca Ridge. A three-month delayed aftershock cluster occurred at the northern part of the subducting Nazca Ridge. Aftershocks were notably lacking at the zone of greatest moment release, to the south of the Nazca Ridge. However, a lone foreshock at the southern end of this zone, some 140 km downstrike of the mainshock’s epicenter, implies that conditions existed for rupture into that zone. The 1996 earthquake ruptured much of the inferred source zone of the M _w 7.9–8.2 earthquake of 1942, although the latter was a slightly larger earthquake. The rupture zone of the 1996 earthquake is immediately north of the seismic gap left by the great earthquakes (M _w ～8.8–9.1) of 1868 and 1877. The M _w 8.0 Antofagasta earthquake of 1995 occurred at the southern end of this great seismic gap. The M _w 8.2 deep-focus Bolivian earthquake of 1994 occurred directly downdip of the 1868 portion of that gap. The recent occurrence of three significant earthquakes on the periphery of the great seismic gap of the 1868 and 1877 events, among other factors, may signal an increased seismic potential for that zone.