Delamerian‐aged metamorphism in the southern Curnamona Province,Australia: implications for the evolution of the Mesoproterozoic Olarian Orogeny

Monazite electron microprobe U–Th–Pb and garnet Sm–Nd isotopic data from metapelitic assemblages in the Willyama Supergroup in the southern Curnamona Province, south‐central Australia, indicate that the terrain underwent regional greenschist to amphibolite‐grade metamorphism during the c. 500 Ma Delamerian Orogeny. The Delamerian‐aged mineral assemblages include prograde garnet–staurolite and kyanite‐bearing associations that overprint andalusite‐ and sillimanite‐bearing assemblages that are interpreted to have developed during the c. 1600 Ma Olarian Orogeny. Importantly, the development of secondary kyanite‐bearing assemblages in the southern Curnamona Province has been used previously to suggest that the Olarian Orogeny followed an anticlockwise P–T evolution. If such assemblages are the product of c. 500 Ma metamorphism, then the anticlockwise P–T path is an apparent path, due to the overprint of a distinct metamorphic cycle c. 1100 Ma later. Making such distinctions is therefore extremely important when using the textural and metamorphic evolution of polycyclic terrains to model the thermal behaviour of the crust during orogeny. This study highlights the utility of in situ geochronology, linking age data to petrologically important phases and assemblages.     

The contribution of atmospheric acid deposition to ocean acidification in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean

The absorption of anthropogenic CO₂ and atmospheric deposition of acidity can both contribute to the acidification of the global ocean. Rainfall pH measurements and chemical compositions monitored on the island of Bermuda since 1980, and a long-term seawater CO₂ time-series (1983–2005) in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda were used to evaluate the influence of acidic deposition on the acidification of oligotrophic waters of the North Atlantic Ocean and coastal waters of the coral reef ecosystem of Bermuda. Since the early 1980's, the average annual wet deposition of acidity at Bermuda was 15 ± 14 mmol m^− 2 year^− 1, while surface seawater pH decreased by 0.0017 ± 0.0001 pH units each year. The gradual acidification of subtropical gyre waters was primarily due to uptake of anthropogenic CO₂. We estimate that direct atmospheric acid deposition contributed 2% to the acidification of surface waters in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, although this value likely represents an upper limit. Acidifying deposition had negligible influence on seawater CO₂ chemistry of the Bermuda coral reef, with no evident impact on hard coral calcification.     

Wavelet analysis of bathymetric sidescan sonar data for the classification of seafloor sediments in Hopvågen Bay - Norway

In this paper we examine the use of bathymetric sidescan sonar for automatic classification of seabed sediments. Bathymetric sidescan sonar, here implemented through a small receiver array, retains the advantage of sidescan in speed through illuminating large swaths, but also enables the data gathered to be located spatially. The spatial location allows the image intensity to be corrected for depth and insonification angle, thus improving the use of the sonar for identifying changes in seafloor sediment. In this paper we investigate automatic tools for seabed recognition, using wavelets to analyse the image of Hopvågen Bay in Norway. We use the back-propagation elimination algorithm to determine the most significant wavelet features for discrimination. We show that the features selected present good agreement with the grab sample results in the survey under study and can be used in a classifier to discriminate between different seabed sediments.     

Ionic activity coefficients in aqueous mixtures of NaCl and MgCl2

Methods developed earlier, based on hydration numbers for individual ionic species, have been extended to the calculation of ionic activity coefficients in aqueous systems of two electrolytes MX and NX₂ with a common unhydrated anion (X⁻). The data required include the mean activity coefficients of MX and NX₂ in the mixtures, together with the osmotic coefficient. The procedure is illustrated by a calculation of γ_Na, γ_Mg, and γ_Cl in a mixture of NaCl and MgCl₂ closely approximating the composition of seawater with salinity of 35‰.     

Palaeomagnetic results from the ca. 1130 Ma Borgmassivet intrusions in the Ahlmannryggen region of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and tectonic implications

Detailed palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic analyses provide improved palaeomagnetic results from 23 sites in the Borgmassivet intrusions in the Ahlmannryggen region of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. These intrusions are of similar age to their host, the ca. 1130 Ma Ritscherflya Supergroup (RSG). A mean direction of D=235.4°, I=−7.6° with k=45.9 and α₉₅=4.5° was obtained from this study. When combined with previously reported results from 11 sites in the same region, including sites from the Ritscherflya Supergroup, it gives an overall mean direction for 34 sites from the igneous suite with D=236.5°, I=−3.6°, k=27.9 and α₉₅=4.8°. Isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) experiments on several specimens suggest magnetite or titanomagnetite as the primary remanence carrier, while high temperature magnetic susceptibility experiments indicate the presence of single domain particles. These observations, together with field evidence and the high coercivities and unblocking temperatures, support a primary origin for the observed characteristic remanence. The Borgmassivet palaeomagnetic pole lies at 54.5°E, 8.3°N with A₉₅=3.3°. If Antarctica is moved to its Gondwanan position adjacent to southeast Africa, the Borgmassivet pole (BM) coincides with that of the African well-established, well-dated (1100 Ma) Umkondo Large Igneous Province pole, supporting the hypothesis that the Grunehogna craton of Dronning Maud Land was part of the Kalahari craton of southern Africa at ca. 1100 Ma.     

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.