Relationship between 500 hPa ridge axis positions over the indian and the west Pacific regions and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

500 hPa ridge positions over the Indian and the West Pacific regions during April are related with the summer monsoon rainfall over India. The ridge position over the Indian region shows better relation with monsoon rainfall than that shown by the ridge over the Pacific region. The multiple correlation of these ridge positions with monsoon rainfall exceeds 0.7. These predictive relationships are better than those shown by other parameters, viz. (1) Northern Hemispheric surface temperature; (2) East-Pacific sea surface tempera-ture; (3) El-Nino events and (4) Tahiti-Darwin pressure difference, and index of southern oscillation, over the 30-year samples analysed.     

Variability and teleconnections of South and East Asian summer monsoons in present and future projections of CMIP5 climate models

Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs of the South and East Asian summer monsoon variability and their tele-connections are investigated using historical simulations (1861-2005) and future projections under the RCP4.5 scenario (2006-2100). Detailed analyses are performed using nine models having better representation of the recent monsoon teleconnections for the interactive Asian monsoon sub-systems. However, these models underestimate rainfall mainly over South Asia and Korea-Japan sector, the regions of heavy rainfall, along with a bias in location of rainfall maxima. Indeed, the simulation biases, underestimations of monsoon variability and teleconnections suggest further improvements for better representation of Asian monsoon in the climate models. Interestingly, the performance of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1.0 (ACCESS1.0) in simulating the annual cycle, spatial pattern of rainfall and multi-decadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall over South and East Asia appears to more realistic. In spite of large spread among the CMIP5 models, historical simulations as well as future projections of summer monsoon rainfall indicate multi-decadal variability. These rainfall variations, displaying certain epochs of more rainfall over South Asia than over East Asia and vice versa, suggest an oscillatory behaviour. Teleconnections between South and East Asian monsoon rainfall also exhibit a multi-decadal variation with alternate epochs of strengthening and weakening relationship. Furthermore, large-scale circulation features such as South Asian monsoon trough and north Pacific subtropical high depict zonal oscillatory behaviour with east-west-east shifts. Periods with eastward or westward extension of the Mascarene High, intensification and expansion of the upper tropospheric South Asian High are also projected by the CMIP5 models.     

Possible linkage between East Asian summer drought and North Pacific Oscillation

The May North Pacific Oscillation Index and the summer (May and June?CJuly?CAugust??JJA) Effective Drought Index have a strong negative correlation in the East Asian region, particularly in northern China, Korea, and the southwestern regions of Japan (here termed ??Northeast Asia??); this signifies an intensification of the summer drought during positive North Pacific Index (NPI) phase in this region, and the presence of such a phenomenon has been observed in this study. The low-south/high-north anomalous pressure pattern forming in all layers of the troposphere in Northeast Asian region has been a cause of drought. This unusual pressure pattern gives rise to a cold northeasterly and intensifies downward flow and reduces relative humidity. In addition, this cold northeasterly hinders the northward movement of the western North Pacific high and reduces the frequency of tropical cyclones passing through this region, thereby further intensifying drought.     

Role of intra-seasonal oscillations in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The day-to-day behavior of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (IMR) is associated with a hierarchy of quasi-periods, namely 3?C7, 10?C20 and the 30?C60?days. These two periods, the 10?C20?days and the 30?C60?days have been related with the active and break cycles of the monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent. The seasonal strength of Indian summer monsoon rainfall may depend on the frequency and duration of spells of break and active periods associated with the fluctuations of the above intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs). Thus the predictability of the seasonal (June through September) mean Indian monsoon depends on the extent to which the intra-seasonal oscillations could be predicted. The primary objective of this study is to bring out the dynamic circulation features during the pre-monsoon/monsoon season associated with the extreme phases of these oscillations The intense (weak) phase of the 10?C20 (30?C60) days oscillation is associated with anti-cyclonic circulation over the Indian Ocean, easterly flow over the equatorial Pacific Ocean resembling the normal or cold phase (La Nina) of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and weakening of the north Pacific Sub-tropical High. On the other hand the weak phase of 10?C20?days mode and the intense phase of 30?C60?days mode shows remarkable opposite flow patterns. The circulation features during pre-monsoon months show that there is a tendency for the flow patterns observed in pre-monsoon months to persist during the monsoon months. Hence some indications of the behavior of these modes during the monsoon season could be foreshadowed from the spring season patterns. The relationship between the intensity of these modes and some of the long-range forecasting parameters used operationally by the India Meteorological Department has also been examined.     

Large scale aspects of India-China summer monsoon rainfall

This study investigates the dominant modes of variability in monthly and seasonal rainfall over the India-China region mainly through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The EOFs have shown that whereas the rain-fall over India varies as one coherent zone, that over China varies in east-west oriented bands. The influence of this banded structure extends well into India.Relationship of rainfall with large scale parameters such as the subtropical ridge over the Indian and the western Pacific regions, Southern Oscillation, the Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature and stratospheric winds have also been investigated. These results show that the rainfall over the area around 40oN, 110oE over China is highly related with rainfall over India. The subtropical ridge over the Indian region is an important predictor over India as well as over the northern China legion.     

Global structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillations during two recent contrasting summer monsoon seasons over India

Summary The global nature of the Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs) have been investigated by applying a frequency filter to daily data for the summer monsoon months (June to September) during two contrasting years—1987, a deficient monsoon year and 1988, an excess monsoon year. Several meteorological parameters at five levels in the troposphere have been examined. Regions with large amplitude of these oscillations are isolated for each year. The results indicate that the global spatial distribution of these oscillations is more in a deficient year than in an excess year, in particular over the Indian subcontinent and the EI Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions. The principal modes of variability during these two years have been investigated through Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The first two eigenmodes of 850 hPa zonal wind explain nearly 50% of the variance. The dipole type of structure between the Indian and the Pacific region is more apparent in 1987 than in 1988. Time-longitude cross sections of the filtered zonal wind over the equatorial regions clearly show that eastward propagation is detected in 1987, but is virtually absent in 1988. It is also seen that the 30–60 day filtered winds are stronger during the monsoon of 1987 than in 1988.     

Summer monsoon rainfall patterns over South Korea and associated circulation features

Summary Seasonal summer monsoon (June through August) rainfall patterns over South Korea are classified by an objective method using data for a 40-year period (1961–2000). The rainfall patterns are represented by the percentage departures from the normal rainfall of 12 stations spread uniformly over South Korea. The statistical technique employed is the k-means (KM) clustering method. The Euclidean distance has been used as a measure of similarity between the patterns. Four dominant types are obtained by this method. Intercorrelations among the types suggest that the dominant patterns are distinct. The summer monsoon rainfall shows an increasing trend. Investigation of the physical processes associated with these patterns using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data clearly reveals contrasting circulation features associated with the dominant types during the summer monsoon period. In particular, contrasting circulation features are related to the position, shape and strength of the North Pacific Subtropical High. Received October 30, 2000 Revised November 12, 2001     

Teleconnections: Northern hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian monsoon rainfall

Summary In this study a search for teleconnection is made between the Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) through the correlation analysis approach. Monthly grid-point 50 hPa geopotential height data and the June to September IMR are used for the period 1958–1990.Analysis reveal that there are domains over the Northern Hemisphere where the variation of the geopotential heights during the preceding months of the monsoon period are related with the interannual behaviour of the IMR. During January and February significant positive correlations are seen along the lower latitudes (10°–20° N). However, the maximum relationship is seen during March, with high positive correlations over the Canadian sector and negative correlations over the east Asian sector. The correlation configuration weakens considerably, once the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cases are excluded, suggesting that the correlation pattern obtained may be a manifestation of the ENSO cycle. Implications of these results in the long range forecasting of IMR are also discussed.With 5 Figures     

Climatology and variability of historical Soviet snow depth data: some new perspectives in snow – Indian monsoon teleconnections

 This study presents the monthly climatology and variability of the historical soviet snow depth data. This data set was developed under the bilateral data exchange agreement between United States of America and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The original data is for 284 stations for periods varying from 1881 upto 1985. The seasonal cycle of the mean snow depth has been presented both as spatial maps and as averages over key locations. The deepest snow (=80 cms/day) areas are found over Siberia (in Particular over 80′–100 ′E, 55′–70 ′N) during March. Over the course of the annual cycle average snow depth over this region changes dramatically from about 10 cms in October to about 80 cms in March. The variability is presented in the form of spatial maps of standard deviation. To investigate the interaction of snow depth with Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR), lag and lead correlation coefficients are computed. Results reveal that the winter-time snow depth over western Eurasia surrounding Moscow (eastern Eurasia in central Siberia) shows significant negative (positive) relationship with subsequent IMR. Following the monsoon the signs of relationship reverse over both the regions. This correlation structure is indicative of a midlatitude longwave pattern with an anomalous ridge (trough) over Asia during the winter prior to a strong (weak) monsoon. As the time progresses from winter to spring, the coherent areas of significant relationship show southeastward propagation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the snow depth reveal that the first mode describes a dipole-type structure with one centre around Moscow and the other over central Siberia, depicting similar pattern as the spatial correlation structure. The decadal-scale IMR variations seem to be more associated with the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude snow depth variations rather than with the tropical ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability. Received: 16 March 1998 / Accepted: 24 December 1998