GIS-based assessment of landslide susceptibility on the base of the Weights-of-Evidence model

The major scope of the study is the assessment of landslide susceptibility of Flysch areas including the Penninic Klippen in the Vienna Forest (Lower Austria) by means of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based modelling. A statistical/probabilistic method, referred to as Weights-of-Evidence (WofE), is applied in a GIS environment in order to derive quantitative spatial information on the predisposition to landslides. While previous research in this area concentrated on local geomorphological, pedological and slope stability analyses, the present study is carried out at a regional level. The results of the modelling emphasise the relevance of clay shale zones within the Flysch formations for the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the distribution of mass movements is closely connected to the fault system and nappe boundaries. An increased frequency of landslides is observed in the proximity to drainage lines, which can change to torrential conditions after heavy rainfall. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility is enhanced on N-W facing slopes, which are exposed to the prevailing direction of wind and rainfall. Both of the latter geofactors indirectly show the major importance of the hydrological conditions, in particular, of precipitation and surface runoff, for the occurrence of mass movements in the study area. Model performance was checked with an independent validation set of landslides, which are not used in the model. An area of 15% of the susceptibility map, classified as highly susceptible, “predicted” 40% of the landslides.     

Cosmic-ray-induced fission of heavy nuclides: Possible influence on apparent U-fission track ages of extraterrestrial samples

The rates of cosmic-ray-induced fission of U, Th, Bi, Pb, and Au in mineral samples as a function of burial depth in the lunar surface layer are calculated using the available experimental particle flux and cross section data. Theoretical correction factors are given for apparent fission track ages of extraterrestrial samples of different burial depths which were exposed to cosmic rays for various time fractions of their solidification age. Samples having typical lunar heavy element contents can yield apparent fission track ages which are too high by a factor of up to 13 due to cosmic-ray-induced fission. The interference may be neglected, if the ratio of exposure age to solidification age remains 5 × 10⁻³. The calculations show, that the induced fission of Bi, Pb, and Au which are known to have high meteoritic abundances may dominate spontaneous ²³⁸U-fission in long-time exposed meteorites of low U and Th contents.     

210Pb in GEOSECS water profiles from the North Pacific

Ten GEOSECS profiles from the North Pacific have been analyzed for²¹⁰Pb. GEOSECS²²⁶Ra data on the same profiles are used to calculate²¹⁰Pb excess or deficiency relative to secular equilibrium. The resultant profiles are divisible into a thermocline zone (<2000m) showing an expected decrease with depth, a mid-water zone of about 2000 m showing small constant deficiencies with a zone of increasing deficiency to a bottom zone of about 1000 m having the highest deficiency virtually invariant with depth. The exponentially decreasing portion in the thermocline yields a “diffusion” coefficient of 3 cm²/s. The mid-water deficiencies yield ? model residence times of 400 years northeast of Hawaii decreasing to 100 years at the most marginal stations.     

Excess of bottom-released methane in an Arctic shelf sea polynya in winter

Latent heat polynyas are regions generating strong ice formation, convection and extensive water mass formation. Here we report on the effects of these processes on resuspension of sediments and subsequent methane release from the seafloor and on the resulting excess methane concentration in surface water on a polar shelf during winter. The study is based on measurements of concentration and δ¹³C values of methane, water temperature, salinity, light transmission and sea ice data collected in March 2003 in Storfjorden, southern Svalbard. In winter, strong and persistent northeasterly winds create polynyas in eastern Storfjorden and cause ice formation. The resulting brine-enriched water cascades from the Storfjordbanken into the central depression thereby enhancing the turbulence near the seafloor. A distinct benthic nepheloid layer was observed reflecting the resuspension of sediments by the cascading dense bottom water. High concentrations of ¹³C-depleted methane suggest submarine discharge of methane with the resuspended sediments. As the source of the submarine methane, we propose recent bacterial methanogenesis near the sediment surface because of extremely high accumulation rates of organic carbon in Storfjorden. Convective mixing transports newly released methane from the bottom to the sea surface. This eventually results in an excess concentration in surface water with respect to the atmospheric equilibrium, and a sea-air flux of methane during periods of open water. When a new ice cover is formed, methane becomes trapped in the water column and subsequently oxidized. Thus, the residual methane is strongly enriched in ¹³C in relation to the δ¹³_CCH4${\delta }^{13}{\mathrm{C}}_{{\mathrm{CH}}_4}$ signature of atmospheric methane. Our results show that latent heat polynyas may induce a direct pathway for biogases like methane from sediments to the atmosphere through coupling of biogeochemical and oceanographic processes. Extrapolating these processes to all Arctic ocean polynyas, we estimate a transfer of CH₄ between 0.005 and 0.02 Tg yr⁻¹. This is not a large contribution but the fluxes from the polynyas are 20–200 times larger than the ocean average and the methane evasion process in polynyas is certainly one that can be altered under climate change.     

A landslide inventory system as a base for automated process and risk analyses

Landslide research requires consistent and widespread data. Many countries within the European Union have national landslide inventories to fulfill these demands for their respective research. However, those inventories were usually not intended to provide the technical basis for automated process and risk analyses during their design phase. The ongoing development of Germany’s national landslide database offers the opportunity to do this differently. This paper introduces a landslide inventory system called WISL suitable for data handling as well as for novel automated process and risk analyses on a national scale. WISL is designated to form the technical infrastructure for a German national database. Its core consists of an open source relational database management system (PostgreSQL), standardized input and registration methods as well as integrated analyses modules, which avoid large data movement and allow for rapid risk analyses. We present proof-of-concept results of endangered infrastructure related to automated risk mappings based on topography and proximity of active landslides. The use of open source software and the application of a standardized input and data acquisition system for experts, coupled with custom analysis modules, constitutes a step toward automated risk maps by a mere ‘button-press’. Future developments for the inventory lie in the field of refining and inventing analysis modules and collecting data, for which WISL provides a firm technical base.     

Perception of landslides risk and responsibility: a case study in eastern Styria, Austria

This paper presents a case study about the perception of landslide risk. Following a major set of landslides in the eastern part of Austria in June 2009, we surveyed local experts, residents who had suffered losses from the landslides, and others living in the affected communities. Overall, the risk perception was significantly higher among those who had been personally affected by a landslide, had knowledge of the geology in the study region, had been affected by another natural hazard, or spent a lot of time outdoors and in touch with nature. Non-experts viewed natural factors as the main causes for the occurrence of landslides, while experts viewed anthropogenic factors as more important. Likewise, non-experts placed a greater emphasis on hard measures (such as retaining walls) to reduce the risk, whereas the experts tended to focus on better information and land-use planning. In terms of responsibility for mitigative actions, a majority of inhabitants believed that public authorities should undertake most of the costs, whereby those who had personal experience with landslides were more likely to favor the government paying for it.     

The structure of the lower crust at the Argentine continental margin, South Atlantic at 44°S

It is well established that the Argentine passive margin is of the rifted volcanic margin type. This classification is based primarily on the presence of a buried volcanic wedge beneath the continental slope, manifested by seismic data as a seaward dipping reflector sequence (SDRS). Here, we investigate the deep structure of the Argentine volcanic margin at 44°S over 200 km from the shelf to the deep oceanic Argentine Basin. We use wide-angle reflection/refraction seismic data to perform a joint travel time inversion for refracted and reflected travel times. The resulting P-wave velocity-depth model confirms the typical volcanic margin structure. An underplated body is resolved as distinctive high seismic velocity (v_p up to 7.5 km/s) feature in the lower crust in the prolongation of a seaward dipping reflector sequence. A remarkable result is that a second, isolated body of high seismic velocity (v_p up to 7.3 km/s) exists landward of the first high-velocity feature. The centres of both bodies are 60 km apart. The high-velocity lower-crustal bodies likely were emplaced during transient magmatic–volcanic events accompanying the late rifting and initial drifting stages. The lateral variability of the lower crust may be an expression of a multiple rifting process in the sense that the South Atlantic rift evolved by instantaneous breakup of longer continental margin segments. These segments are confined by transfer zones that acted as rift propagation barriers. A lower-crustal reflector was detected at 3 to 5 km above the modern Moho and probably represents the lower boundary of stretched continental crust. With this finding we suggest that the continent–ocean boundary is situated 70 km more seaward than in previous interpretations.