Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff

Particular attention is given to the reliability of hydrological modelling results. The accuracy of river runoff projection depends on the selected set of hydrological model parameters, emission scenario and global climate model. The aim of this article is to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters, to perform sensitivity analysis of the runoff projections, as well as the contribution analysis of uncertainty sources (model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models) in forecasting Lithuanian river runoff. The impact of model parameters on the runoff modelling results was estimated using a sensitivity analysis for the selected hydrological periods (spring flood, winter and autumn flash floods, and low water). During spring flood the results of runoff modelling depended on the calibration parameters that describe snowmelt and soil moisture storage, while during the low water period—the parameter that determines river underground feeding was the most important. The estimation of climate change impact on hydrological processes in the Merkys and Neris river basins was accomplished through the combination of results from A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios and global climate models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). The runoff projections of the thirty-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) were conducted applying the HBV software. The uncertainties introduced by hydrological model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models were presented according to the magnitude of the expected changes in Lithuanian rivers runoff. The emission scenarios had much greater influence on the runoff projection than the global climate models. The hydrological model parameters had less impact on the reliability of the modelling results.     

Habitat requirements for submerged aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay: Water quality, light regime, and physical-chemical factors

We developed an algorithm for calculating habitat suitability for seagrasses and related submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) at coastal sites where monitoring data are available for five water quality variables that govern light availability at the leaf surface. We developed independent estimates of the minimum light required for SAV survival both as a percentage of surface light passing though the water column to the depth of SAV growth (PLW _min) and as a percentage of light reaching reaching leaves through the epiphyte layer (PLL _min). Value were computed by applying, as inputs to this algorithm, statistically dervived values for water quality variables that correspond to thresholds for SAV presence in Chesapeake Bay. These estimates ofPLW _min andPLL _min compared well with the values established from a literature review. Calcultations account for tidal range, and total light attenuation is partitioned into water column and epiphyte contributions. Water column attenuation is further partitioned into effects of chlorophylla (chla), total suspended solids (TSS) and other substances. We used this algorithm to predict potential SAV presence throughout the Bay where calculated light available at plant leaves exceededPLL _min. Predictions closely matched results of aerial photographic monitoring surveys of SAV distribution. Correspondence between predictions and observations was particularly strong in the mesohaline and polythaline regions, which contain 75–80% of all potential SAV sites in this estuary. The method also allows for independent assessment of effects of physical and chemical factors other than light in limiting SAV growth and survival. Although this algorithm was developed with data from Chesapeake Bay, its general structure allows it to be calibrated and used as a quantitative tool for applying water quality data to define suitability of specific sites as habitats for SAV survival in diverse coastal environments worldwide.     

Spatial,seasonal, and source variability in the stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of tap waters throughout the USA

To assess spatial, seasonal, and source variability in stable isotopic composition of human drinking waters throughout the entire USA, we have constructed a database of δ¹⁸O and δ²H of US tap waters. An additional purpose was to create a publicly available dataset useful for evaluating the forensic applicability of these isotopes for human tissue source geolocation. Samples were obtained at 349 sites, from diverse population centres, grouped by surface hydrologic units for regional comparisons. Samples were taken concurrently during two contrasting seasons, summer and winter. Source supply (surface, groundwater, mixed, and cistern) and system (public and private) types were noted. The isotopic composition of tap waters exhibits large spatial and regional variation within each season as well as significant at‐site differences between seasons at many locations, consistent with patterns found in environmental (river and precipitation) waters deriving from hydrologic processes influenced by geographic factors. However, anthropogenic factors, such as the population of a tap's surrounding community and local availability from diverse sources, also influence the isotopic composition of tap waters. Even within a locale as small as a single metropolitan area, tap waters with greatly differing isotopic compositions can be found, so that tap water within a region may not exhibit the spatial or temporal coherence predicted for environmental water. Such heterogeneities can be confounding factors when attempting forensic inference of source water location, and they underscore the necessity of measurements, not just predictions, with which to characterize the isotopic composition of regional tap waters. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Spatial variability of topsoil contamination with trace elements in preschools in Vilnius,Lithuania

An investigation of the spatial variability of topsoil contamination level was performed in 49 preschool playgrounds located in Vilnius city and correlated with urban (height and age of the preschools and height of surrounding buildings) and natural (altitude) factors. Composite samples, consisting of 20–30 sub-samples, were collected from 10 cm topsoil layer with a 3–5 m distance from each other. Sieved fraction (< 0.63 mm) was ashed at 400 °C, ground to < 1.0 μm and analysed for the real total concentrations of 22 trace elements (Ag, B, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Ga, Li, Mn, Mo, Nb, Ni, Pb, Sc, Sn, Sr, Ti, V, Y, Yb, Zn and Zr) using optical atomic emission spectrophotometry. Information on construction year and height (number of building stories) of preschool and surrounding buildings was acquired from the Centre of Registers of Lithuania. Out of 22 analysed elements, 13 to a greater extent exceeded the background values in several areas and were used to calculate the total contamination index (Z_s13). Out of 49 analysed areas, 21 had moderately hazardous to hazardous levels of contamination as indicated by Z_s13. The main contaminating elements, exceeding the permissible concentrations were Ag, Cu, Mo, Pb, Sn and Zn, the origins of which coincide with city industry and traffic. Topsoil around the newer preschool buildings, despite their location, contained lower concentrations of contaminants, while areas at higher altitudes were more contaminated than those located at lower altitudes. The latter causality is biased, as the city industry, and hence the highest contamination, is in districts located higher above sea level than the remaining studied sites.     

Devils Hole, Nevada, δO record extended to the mid-Holocene

The mid-to-late Pleistocene Devils Hole δ¹⁸O record has been extended from 60,000 to 4500 yr ago. The new δ¹⁸O time series, in conjunction with the one previously published, is shown to be a proxy of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) off the coast of California. During marine oxygen isotope stages (MIS) 2 and 6, the Devil Hole and SST time series exhibit a steady warming that began 5000 to > 10,000 yr prior to the last and penultimate deglaciations. Several possible proximate causes for this early warming are evaluated. The magnitude of the peak δ¹⁸O or SST during the last interglacial (LIG) is significantly greater (1 per mill and 2 to 3°C, respectively) than the peak value of these parameters for the Holocene; in contrast, benthic δ¹⁸O records of ice volume show only a few tenths per mill difference in the peak value for these interglacials. Statistical analysis provides an estimate of the large shared information (variation) between the Devils Hole and Eastern Pacific SST time series from ∼ 41 to ∼ 2°N and enforces the concept of a common forcing among all of these records. The extended Devils Hole record adds to evidence of the importance of uplands bordering the eastern Pacific as a source of archives for reconstructing Pacific climate variability.     

Role of weather and water quality in population dynamics of submersed macrophytes in the tidal Potomac River

Weather and water-quality data from 1980 to 1989 were correlated with fluctuations in submersed macrophyte populations in the tidal Potomac River near Washington, D.C., to elucidate causal relationships and explain population dynamics. Both reaches were unvegetated in 1980 when mean growing-season Secchi depths were <0.60 m. Macrophyte resurgence in the upper tidal river in 1983 was associated with a growing-season Secchi depth of 0.86 m, total suspended solids (TSS) of 17.7 mg l^?1, chlorophyll a concentrations of 15.2 μg l^?1, significantly higher than average percent available sunshine, and significantly lower than average wind speed. From 1983 to 1989, mean seasonal Secchi depths <0.65 m were associated with decrease in plant coverage and mean seasonal Secchi depths >0.65 were associated with increases in plant coverage. Changes in mean seasonal Secchi depth were related to changes in mean seasonal TSS and chlorophyll a concentration; mean Secchi depths >0.65 generally occur when seasonal mean TSS is <19 mg l^?1 and seasonal mean chlorophyll a concentration is ≤15 μg l^?1. Secchi depth is highly correlated with plant growth in the upper tidal river and chlorophyll a and TSS with plant growth in the lower tidal river. Wind speed is an important influence on plant growth in both reaches.