Apparent and real bias in numerical transfer functions in palaeolimnology

We present an evaluation of the procedure by which model prediction bias is examined in palaeolimnological transfer function inference models. We argue that most of the prediction biases commonly reported in the literature are, in fact, fallacious, and are the artificial consequence of the inappropriate manner in which residuals are traditionally examined. We show that the extent of the specious model bias is entirely predictable from first principles and is essentially determined by the strength of the predictive model. We suggest that the analysis of residuals should always be examined as a function of the model's predictions and we discuss the implications of the old and new approaches.     

Mid‐Weichselian interstadial in Kolari,western Finnish Lapland

Finnish Lapland is known as an area where numerous sites with sediments from Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods occur. Recent sedimentological observations and dating call for reinterpretation of the record, which shows a complicated Mid‐Weichselian ice‐sheet evolution within the ice‐divide zone. Here, a large, previously unstudied section from a former Hannukainen iron mine was investigated sedimentologically and dated with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). Ten sedimentary units were identified displaying a variety of depositional environments (glacial, glaciolacustrine, fluvial and aeolian). They are all – except for the lowermost, deeply weathered till – interpreted to be of Mid‐ or Late Weichselian/Holocene age. Five OSL samples from fluvial sediments give ages ranging from 55 to 35 ka, indicating two MIS 3 ice‐free intervals of unknown duration. The Mid‐Weichselian interstadial was interrupted by a re‐advance event, which occurred later than 35 ka and caused glaciotectonic deformation, folding and stacking of older sediments. This new evidence emphasizes the importance of the Kolari area when unravelling the complex Late Pleistocene glacial history of northern Finland and adjacent regions.     

Segmentation and kinematics of the North America‐Caribbean plate boundary offshore Hispaniola

We explored the submarine portions of the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden Fault zone (EPGFZ) and the Septentrional–Oriente Fault zone (SOFZ) along the Northern Caribbean plate boundary using high‐resolution multibeam echo‐sounding and shallow seismic reflection. The bathymetric data shed light on poorly documented or previously unknown submarine fault zones running over 200 km between Haiti and Jamaica (EPGFZ) and 300 km between the Dominican Republic and Cuba (SOFZ). The primary plate‐boundary structures are a series of strike‐slip fault segments associated with pressure ridges, restraining bends, step overs and dogleg offsets indicating very active tectonics. Several distinct segments 50–100 km long cut across pre‐existing structures inherited from former tectonic regimes or bypass recent morphologies formed under the current strike‐slip regime. Along the most recent trace of the SOFZ, we measured a strike‐slip offset of 16.5 km, which indicates steady activity for the past ~1.8 Ma if its current GPS‐derived motion of 9.8 ± 2 mm a^?1 has remained stable during the entire Quaternary.