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排序方式: 共有1127条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Erik Rüttener Juan José Egozcue Dieter Mayer-Rosa Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178
Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law. 相似文献
2.
Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear. 相似文献
3.
Groundwater-flow modeling in the Yucatan karstic aquifer, Mexico 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Roger González-Herrera Ismael Sánchez-y-Pinto José Gamboa-Vargas 《Hydrogeology Journal》2002,10(5):539-552
The current conceptual model of the unconfined karstic aquifer in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, is that a fresh-water lens
floats above denser saline water that penetrates more than 40 km inland. The transmissivity of the aquifer is very high so
the hydraulic gradient is very low, ranging from 7–10 mm/km through most of the northern part of the peninsula. The computer
modeling program AQUIFER was used to investigate the regional groundwater flow in the aquifer. The karstified zone was modeled
using the assumption that it acts hydraulically similar to a granular, porous medium. As part of the calibration, the following
hypotheses were tested: (1) karstic features play an important role in the groundwater-flow system; (2) a ring or belt of
sinkholes in the area is a manifestation of a zone of high transmissivity that facilitates the channeling of groundwater toward
the Gulf of Mexico; and (3) the geologic features in the southern part of Yucatan influence the groundwater-flow system. The
model shows that the Sierrita de Ticul fault, in the southwestern part of the study area, acts as a flow barrier and head
values decline toward the northeast. The modeling also shows that the regional flow-system dynamics have not been altered
despite the large number of pumping wells because the volume of water pumped is small compared with the volume of recharge,
and the well-developed karst system of the region has a very high hydraulic conductivity.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
4.
José F. Noguera Lluís Rivero Xavier Font Andrés Navarro Francisco Martínez 《Environmental Geology》2002,41(8):898-905
5.
Pilar Drake Alberto M. Arias Francisco Baldó José A. Cuesta Antonio Rodríguez Alfonso Silva-Garcia Ignacio Sobrino Diego García-González Carlos Fernández-Delgado 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(3):451-468
The aquatic macrofauna of the Guadalquivir estuary were sampled (1 mm mesh persiana net) at 5 sampling sites located along the entire (except the tidal freshwater region) estuarine gradient of salinity (outer 50 km). A total of 134 fish and macroinvertebrate species was collected but only 62 were considered common or regularly present in the estuary. Univariate measures of the community structure showed statistically significant differences among sampling sites: species richness, abundance, and biomass decreased in the upstream direction, being positively correlated with the salinity. Temporal differences of these three variables were also statistically significant. While a clear seasonal pattern (minimum densities in winter and maximum in spring-summer) was observed for abundance and biomass, no such pattern existed for the number of species. Mysids was the most dominant group throughout the estuary (96% to 99% of abundance; 49% to 85% of biomass), although fish biomass was also important at the outer estuary (36% to 38%). Multivariate analyses indicated highly significant spatial variation in the macrofaunal communities observed along the salinity gradient. These analyses suggest that the underlying structure was a continuum with more or less overlapping distributions of the species dependent on their ability to tolerate different physicochemical conditions. There were also significant temporal (intermonthly + interannual) variation of the estuarine community; the relative multivariate dispersion indicated that monthly variation was more considerable (relative multivariate dispersion >1) at the outer part of the estuary during the wet year (last 20 km) and was higher in the inner stations during the dry year (32 to 50 km from the river mouth). Since a clear negative exponential relationship was observed between the freshwater input (from a dam located 110 km upstream) and water salinity at all sampling stations, it is concluded that the human freshwater management is probably affecting the studied estuarine communities. While the higher seasonal (long-term) stability of the salinity gradient, due to the human control of the freshwater input, may facilitate the recruitment of marine species juveniles during the meteorologically unstable early-spring, the additional (short-term) salinity fluctuations during the warm period may negatively affect species that complete their lifecycle within the estuary. 相似文献
6.
The same mathematical theory can be used to describe physical phenomena of different nature. For instance, the wave equation and the related mathematical developments can be used to describe elastic and electromagnetic wave propagation, and it is also extensively used in quantum mechanics. Fresnel's equations are a classical example of the analogy between shear waves and light waves. George Green in the nineteenth century, used analogies to obtain the reflection coefficients for sound waves and light waves, before the advent of the electromagnetic theory of light.In this work, we investigate the mathematical analogy between elastic waves and electromagentic waves. We obtain a complete parallelism for the reflection and refraction problem, considering the most general situation, that is, the presence of anisotropy and attenuation—viscosity in the elastic case and conductivity in the electromagnetic case. The analogy is illustrated with Fresnel's equations, the Brewster and critical angles, the concept of reflectivity and transmissivity, and the corresponding duals fields. The analysis of the elastic-solid theory of reflection applied by Green to light waves, and a brief historical review of wave propagation through the ether, further illustrate the analogy. 相似文献
7.
8.
Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain 总被引:9,自引:3,他引:9
Remondo Juan González Alberto De Terán José Ramón Díaz Cendrero Antonio Fabbri Andrea Chung Chang-Jo F. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):437-449
A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps. 相似文献
9.
The impact of hydrological changes on travertine deposits related to thermal springs in the Pamukkale area (SW Turkey) 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Dilsiz Cüneyt Marques José Manuel Carreira Paula Maria Mimo 《Environmental Geology》2004,45(6):808-817
Pamukkale thermal waters (35 °C), exhibiting calcium-bicarbonate-sulfate composition and high carbon dioxide concentration, are of a predominantly meteoric origin. The meteoric fluid, circulating through faults and fractures, is heated by magmatic intrusions at great depth, and ascends from deep reservoirs to the surface. Mixing with relatively cold groundwater in the near surface zone promotes different saturation conditions with respect to calcium carbonate that later precipitates at depth and/or the surface. Dissolution-deposition processes of calcium carbonate both at surface and depth environments may help to reconstruct past climate direction in the field. During wet climate conditions a high-rate of calcium carbonate accumulation would be expected to occur at the surface because thermal fluid would be under-saturated with respect to calcium carbonate at depth because of a relatively higher mixing ratio with cold groundwater. During dry climate conditions the thermal fluid would be super-saturated at depth because of the highly acidic environment. Hydrometeorological studies reveal that the annual precipitation at the Pamukkale hydrothermal field tends to decrease with time. This climatic change in the area was also detected from geological records. While humid climate conditions prevailed during the late Quaternary, the area has recently been affected by arid/semi-arid climate conditions, followed by some episodic transitions. This study has shown how the system has possibly reacted to different climate conditions since antiquity. 相似文献
10.
Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain) 总被引:2,自引:5,他引:2
In active landslides, the prediction of acceleration of movement is a crucial issue for the design and performance of warning systems. The landslide of Vallcebre in the Eastern Pyreenes, Spain, has been monitored since 1996 and data on rainfall, groundwater levels and ground displacements are measured on a regular basis. Displacements observed in borehole wire extensometers have shown an immediate response of the landslide to rainfall episodes. This rapid response is likely due to the presence of preferential drainage ways. The occurrence of nearly constant rates of displacement in coincidence with steady groundwater levels suggests the presence of viscous forces developed during the movement. An attempt to predict both landslide displacements and velocities was performed at Vallcebre by solving the momentum equation in which a viscous term (Bingham and power law) was added. Results show that, using similar rheological parameters for the entire landslide, computed displacements reproduce quite accurately the displacements observed at three selected wire extensometers. These results indicate that prediction of displacements from groundwater level changes is feasible. 相似文献