Sources and sinks for atmospheric H2: A current analysis with projections for the influence of anthropogenic activity

Oxidation of CH₄ provides the major source for atmospheric H₂ which is removed mainly by reaction with OH. Biological activity at the Earth's surface appears to represent at most a minor sink for H₂. Anthropogenic activity is a significant source for both H₂ and CO in the present atmosphere and may be expected to exert a growing influence in the future. Models are presented which suggest a rise in the mixing ratio of H₂ from its present value of 5.6 × 10^?7 to about 1.8 × 10^?6 by the year 2100. The mixing ratio of CO should grow from 9.7 × 10^?8 to 2.3 × 10^?7 over the same time period and there should be a rise in CH₄ by about a factor of 1.5 associated with anthropogenically induced reductions in tropospheric OH.     

Temporal fluctuations in weather disasters: 1950–1989

A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. These weather disasters (WDs) caused $66.2 billion in losses, 76% of the nation's insured losses in this period. Disasters were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rockies. The incidence of WDs was high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and peaked in the 1980s. Losses due to WDs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, and with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) had poor agreement, and agreed only when they peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of WDs showed marked north-south differences with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, whereas southern regions had a relatively flat trend until achieving a peak in the 1980s. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused disasters differed regionally, with the distributions in the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S. each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm-produced disasters were regionally more uniform. The national 5-year WD frequencies correlated moderately well with annual mean temperatures which explained 40% of the variability found in WDs during 1950–89. Weather disasters peaked in the relatively warm-dry 1950s and again in the warm-wet 1980s, and were least in the cool-wet 1960s and 1970s. The distribution of WDs during 1950–89 appears positively related to the temporal fluctuations in cyclonic activity.     

Geochemical stratigraphy of the Huronian continental volcanics at Thessalon,Ontario: contributions of two-stage crustal fusion

The 1500 m thick sequence of Huronian continental volcanics at Thessalon, Ontario is subdivided into 4 volcanic cycles, each of which includes abundant early mafic end-members, central intermediate flows, and late rhyolite units. Major and trace element concentrations are dominated by extensive gabbroic fractionation trends that ultimately produced two types of felsic flows: (1) rhyolites with high light rare earth element (LREE) and relatively low large-ion lithophile element (LILE) concentrations (high-LREE, low-LILE rhyolites), and (2) following late separation of REE-rich accessory phases, rhyolites depleted in LREE (low-LREE, high-LILE rhyolites). Mafic end-members of individual volcanic cycle are progressively less siliceous and less enriched in LILE and LREE with height in the stratigraphic section. Ti/Zr ratios gradually rise from 35 in early mafic flows to stabilize at about 85 in late units, while average SiO₂ contents decrease from 56 to about 50% and Mg# rises from about 48 to 52. -Nd values are consistently negative, indicating variable degrees of pre-fractionation crustal contamination of the end-member magmas during their uprise through the crust. Mixing models are consistent with up to 50% contamination by crustal material of tonalitic hornblende-gneiss composition. A progressive increase in -Nd, from about-5.0 to-0.5 upward in the volcanic succession, reflects a decreasing degree of crustal contamination due to development of insulating layers along margins of the feeder system. Detailed stratigraphic variations suggest that successive magmas batches were intercepted by a progressively fractionating, periodically replenished magma source, giving rise to open-system magmatism. Despite the prevalence of crustal assimilation in the Huronian lavas, (La/Sr)N ratios are too low in least contaminated end-members to be explained by contamination of tholeiitic magmas. The late basalts resemble instead modern island are basalts, and it is suggested that the subcontinental mantle source was enriched by subduction-related processes during crustal formation. Within individual volcanic cycles gabbroic fractionation trends systematically deviate from calculated factors toward compositions characteristic of hornblende-gneiss. Such relations suggest that further crustal contamination of the magmas occurred simultaneous with crystal fractionation. probably within undulating sills at upper crustal levels. Quantitative analysis suggests assimilation/fractional crystallization (A/FC) ratios of about 0.45. As a result of extensive two-stage contamination, rhyolites from the initial volcanic cycle incorporate a total of over 60% of crust.     

Recycling in the Puerto Rican mantle wedge, Greater Antilles Island Arc

Abstract The initial volcanic phase of Cretaceous island arc strata in central Puerto Rico, at the eastern end of the extinct Greater Antilles Arc, comprises a 6‐km thick pile of lava and volcanic breccia (Río Majada Group). Preserved within the sequence is a conspicuous shift in absolute abundances of the more incompatible elements, including Th, Nb, and the light rare earth elements (LREE: La, Ce, Pr and Nd). The compositional shift is marked by a decrease in La/Sm from averages of 2.11 in the lowest third of the pile (Formation A) to 1.48 at the top (Formation C), and by a distinctive flattening of LREE segments of chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. i⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ?_Nd average about 0.7035 and 8.2, respectively, in early Formation A basalts. These ranges normally overlap samples from later Formations B and C. Isotope compositions of the latter group are more variable, however, and several samples are considerably more radiogenic than Formation A basalts, such that i⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr averages almost 0.7042 while ?_Nd‐values decrease to 7.5 in Formation B and C basalts. Theoretical models of non‐modal melting processes in both amphibole peridotite and spinel lherzolite sources provide insight into the origin of depleted Th, Nb, and LREE abundances in Puerto Rican basalts. Low Nb concentrations less than normal mid‐oceanic ridge basalts in Formation A basalts indicate the wedge was slightly depleted by low‐volume decompression fusion due to induced convection in the back‐arc region prior to entry of the source into the arc melting zone. However, depleted patterns in Formation C basalts cannot be generated by relatively greater degrees of decompression fusion in the back‐arc, because addition of the La‐enriched slab‐derived component to more depleted source material invariably produces elevated rather than decreased La/Sm. Refluxing of Formation A harzburgitic residua is similarly precluded. In contrast, the observed patterns are readily reproduced by multistage melting models involving hybridized sources containing normal Formation A lherzolite source material blended with recycled, unrefluxed harzburgite residua. Successful models require hybrid sources containing large volumes of recycled harzburgite (up to 50%) during generation of Formation C basalts. Slightly elevated radiometric Sr and Nd isotopes in a few flows from Formation C are attributed to partial refluxing of the hybrid sources within the wedge.     

Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.     

Primary aragonite and high‐Mg calcite in the late Cambrian (Furongian). Potential evidence from marine carbonates in Oman

Transient aragonite seas occurred in the early Cambrian but several models suggest the late Cambrian was a time of calcite seas. Here, evidence is presented from the Andam Group, Huqf High, Oman (Gondwana) that suggests a transient Furongian (late Cambrian) aragonite sea, characterized by the precipitation of aragonite and high‐Mg calcite ooids and aragonite isopachous, fibrous, cements. Stable carbon isotope data suggest that precipitation occurred just before and during the SPICE (Steptoean Positive Carbonate Isotope Excursion). Aragonite and high‐Mg calcite precipitation can be accounted for if mMg:Ca ratios were around 1.2 given the very high atmospheric CO₂ at that time and if precipitation occurred in warm waters associated with the SPICE. This, together with reported occurrences of early Furongian aragonite ooids from various locations in North America (Laurentia), suggests that aragonite and high‐Mg calcite precipitation from seawater may have been more than just a local phenomenon.     

A topical evaluation and discussion of data movement technologies for data-intensive scientific applications

Transferring large volumes of information from one location to potentially many others that are geographically distributed and across varying networks is still prevalent in modern scientific data systems. This is despite the movement to push computation to the data and to reduce data movement needed to compute answers to challenging scientific problems, to disseminate information to the scientific community, and to acquire data for curation and enrichment. Because of this, it is imperative that decisions made regarding data movement systems and architectures be backed by both analytical rigor, and also by empirical evidence and measurement. The purpose of this study is to expand on the work performed by our research team over the last decade and to take a fresh look at the evaluation of multiple topical data transfer technologies in use cases derived from data-intensive scientific systems and applications in the areas of Earth science. We report on the evaluation of a set of data movement technologies against a set of empirically derived comparison dimensions. Based on this evaluation, we make recommendations towards the selection of appropriate data movement technologies in scientific applications and scenarios.     

Determination of Elemental Concentrations in Nine CMEA Rock and Ore Standards,in NBS 98 Plastic Clay and in Fired Clay Gent (FCG) by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis*

Data for as many as 31 elements were determined by instrumental thermal neutron activation analysis for nine European Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) rock and ore standards. The National Bureau of Standards plastic clay 98 and the University of Gent fired clay FCG were also analyzed. Synthetic, multielement standards were used and USGS rock standards provided reference samples. Correction factors for uranium fission products on cerium and molybdenum, and also for less commonly encountered spectral interferences, such as those due to the 213 ppm tantalum in granitoid 2B, were evaluated.     

Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995