Impact of 3D Var GSI-ENKF hybrid data assimilation system

The hybrid two-way coupled 3DEnsVar assimilation system was tested with the NCMRWF global data assimilation forecasting system. At present, this system consists of T574L64 deterministic model and the grid-point statistical interpolation analysis scheme. In this experiment, the analysis system is modified with a two-way coupling with an 80 member Ensemble Kalman Filter of T254L64 resolution and runs are carried out in parallel to the operational system for the Indian summer monsoon season (June–September) for the year 2015 to study its impact. Both the assimilation systems are based on NCEP GFS system. It is found that hybrid assimilation marginally improved the quality of the forecasts of all variables over the deterministic 3D Var system, in terms of statistical skill scores and also in terms of circulation features. The impact of the hybrid system in prediction of extreme rainfall and cyclone track is discussed.     

Fluid territories: Rethinking state territorialisation in Palk Bay,South Asia

The study objective was to gain a better understanding of the transboundary fishing conflict between Indian trawl fishers and Sri Lankan small-scale fishers in Palk Bay using a relational approach to territoriality. The authors employed different ethnographic methods, including open, structured, and semi-structured interviews, and performed a media analysis in order to understand the everyday practices of Indian trawl fishers within the wider geopolitical context of a 30-year war in neighbouring Sri Lanka. The relational approach moves away from seeing cross-border fishing merely as an act of counter-territorialisation. The results revealed that the cross-border fishing underlying the crisis has largely resulted from a complex network of changing relationships between on the one hand Indian trawl fishers and India, and on the other hand Sri Lankan state agencies and Sri Lankan fishers, resulting in a porous international maritime boundary. The authors conclude that this in turn has resulted in a fluid international maritime boundary line.     

Atmospheric phenomena deduced from radiosonde and GPS occultation measurements for various application related studies

The tropopause height and tropopause temperature are sensitive to temperature changes in troposphere and stratosphere. These are the measures of global climatic variability. Atmospheric profiles of temperature, refractivity and water vapour are always needed for communication, navigation and atmospheric modeling studies. The tropopause characteristics over the Indian region have been studied using radio occultation measurements (CHAMP) on the basis of cold point criterion. Tropopause height shows large variation in the latitude range ∼30°–40°N during winter. Tropopause temperature less than −82°C, assumed to facilitate troposphere to stratosphere air transport, is observed at a number of tropical Indian locations and no seasonal pattern is observed in its occurrence. The bias in temperature and refractivity deduced from radiosonde and radio occultation measurements is also presented.     

Investigating the multiscale teleconnections of Madden–Julian oscillation and monthly rainfall using time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation

Natural Hazards - This study proposes a novel ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation (TDICC)-coupled framework to investigate the correlation...     

Method for generating parameterized ecotoxicity data of dispersed oil for use in environmental modelling

The aim of the work was to establish methodology for realistic laboratory-based test exposures of organisms to oil dispersions, specifically designed to generate parameterized toxicity data. Such data are needed to improve the value of numerical models used to predict fate and effects of oil spills and different oil spill responses. A method for continuous and predictable in-line production of oil dispersions with defined size distribution of different oil qualities was successfully established. The system enables simultaneous comparison between the effects of different concentrations of dispersion and their corresponding equilibrium water soluble fractions. Thus, net effects of the oil droplet fraction may be estimated. The method provides data for comparing the toxicity of oil dispersions generated both mechanically and with the use of chemical dispersions, incorporating the toxicity of both dissolved oil and droplets of oil.     

Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles

Performance of a hybrid assimilation system combining 3D Var based NGFS (NCMRWF Global Forecast System) with ETR (Ensemble Transform with Rescaling) based Global Ensemble Forecast (GEFS) of resolution T-190L28 is investigated. The experiment is conducted for a period of one week in June 2013 and forecast skills over different spatial domains are compared with respect to mean analysis state. Rainfall forecast is verified over Indian region against combined observations of IMD and NCMRWF. Hybrid assimilation produced marginal improvements in overall forecast skill in comparison with 3D Var. Hybrid experiment made significant improvement in wind forecasts in all the regions on verification against mean analysis. The verification of forecasts with radiosonde observations also show improvement in wind forecasts with the hybrid assimilation. On verification against observations, hybrid experiment shows more improvement in temperature and wind forecasts at upper levels. Both hybrid and operational 3D Var failed in prediction of extreme rainfall event over Uttarakhand on 17 June, 2013.     

Equatorial Indian Ocean Response during Extreme Indian Summer Monsoon Years Using Reliable CMIP5 Models

Monsoon droughts are characterized by the weakening of surface winds over the equatorial Indian Ocean and increased upper ocean heat storage, thus providin