三江源生态环境监测研究

青海省生态环境监测系统主要由遍布全省各典型生态系统区的生态环境监测站网、卫星遥感信息接收处理系统，信息收集、处理、模拟、评价系统，综合信息服务与反馈等部分组成。建立环境监测系统的目的是对青海省的生态环境进行系统监测和评估，及时为各级政府、有关部门和公众提供准确、全面的生态环境监测信息，为生态环境保护和建设提供科学依据。青海省生态环境监测系统于2003年5月1日开始业务运行，目前尚处于起步阶段。     

Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts

为了比较不同陆面扰动方法对短时集合预报的影响,本研究设计了陆面模式扰动实验(LSMPE),初始土壤湿度扰动实验(ISMPE),陆面-大气耦合系数扰动实验(LCCPE)以及大气扰动对照实验(GEFSPE).结果表明,在三组陆面扰动实验中,LSMPE能代表最大的不确定性且误差最小;ISMPE的离散度要比LCCPE稍大,但是...     

中国北方暴雪的年代际变化及其与大气环流和北极海冰的联系

采用相关、回归等统计方法,对中国北方暴雪的年代际变化特征及其与大气环流和北极海冰的联系进行探讨。结果表明:中国北方冬季暴雪发生频次较高区域主要位于东北,在空间分布上呈现由西北向东南增加的态势,且存在明显的年代际变化特征:1965—1980年为东北暴雪少发期; 2002—2011年为东北暴雪多发期。分析表明:暴雪少发期,输送至东北的水汽较少;暴雪多发期,更多的水汽输送来自于西北太平洋,同时偏北气流引导的极地冷空气与偏南风引导的太平洋暖湿空气在东北地区汇合,提供暴雪频发的动力条件,造成东北暴雪出现年代际增多。此外,研究发现:前期秋季北极海冰的年代际减少与东北暴雪的年代际增加存在很好的相关性;秋季北极海冰异常偏少导致的大气环流异常主要表现为纬向西风减弱和NAO负位相,由此导致大气经向活动增强,利于极地冷空气向南入侵,且冷空气与暖湿空气在东北地区汇合,这是东北暴雪年代际增加的重要原因之一。     

Understanding the spring phenology of Arctic tundra using multiple satellite data products and ground observations

The Arctic is highly sensitive to climate change, and the rise in its near-surface air temperatures has been almost twice the global average. The increased growth of the Arctic tundra and its changing seasonality have been observed, largely in response to the impacts of climate change. In this study, we investigated the temporal and spatial variations of the start of the growing season(SOS) using various remote sensing indices, including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Water Index, and Normalized Difference Snow Index from 2000 to 2018 in Arctic tundra regions. The SOS was derived at 29 sites from ground observations, including CO_2 flux data, phenological images, and field records that were used to validate the SOS from remote sensing indices. Our results revealed that the SOS was delayed by approximately 3.86 days per degree of latitude along the northward latitudinal gradient. From 2000 to 2018, the start of the growing season and the interannual variability differed greatly among tundra types. Although the overall trends were not significant from 2000 to 2018, the start of the growing season in different plant communities was consistently delayed after 2016. High Arctic vegetation, including(1) low wetland complexes(5–10 cm) dominated by sedges, grasses, and mosses, and(2) slightly higher prostrate and hemi-prostrate shrubs( 15 cm), experienced a delayed start of the growing season. The start of the growing season of Low Arctic vegetation,comprising(1) wetland complexes(10–40 cm) dominated by sedges, grasses, mosses, and dwarf shrubs,(2) moist tundra(20–50 cm) dominated by tussock cottongrass and dwarf shrubs, and(3) transition zones containing tundra and taiga, displayed no obvious trend.     

一次龙卷生成中风暴单体合并和涡旋特征的雷达观测研究

本文利用阜阳市多普勒天气雷达CINRAD/SA资料,分析了2008年7月23日发生在安徽省颍上县的龙卷天气过程。结果表明：本次过程中,风暴单体的连续合并对风暴单体迅速增强为超级单体风暴有重要作用。风暴单体的合并和邻近风暴单体之间的相互作用与龙卷的发生在时间和位置上有较明显的相关,说明风暴单体间的合并和相互作用可能对龙卷存在激发作用,这对龙卷预警具有一定的参考价值。在缺省适配参数条件下,雷达系统CINRAD/SA的中气旋(M)产品和龙卷涡旋特征(TVS)产品对龙卷预警有较好的指示作用。如果风暴被同时识别出M和TVS产品,并观测到风暴单体中存在有界弱回波区,则出现龙卷的几率更高。     

鄂尔多斯盆地南部长73页岩层系储层特征及主控因素

鄂尔多斯盆地长7₃亚段的页岩层系有机质含量、矿物含量变化大,发育凝灰岩夹层,具有较强的非均质性,不同岩相的孔隙结构差异及主控因素尚不明确。综合多种分析技术手段,对鄂尔多斯盆地南部长7₃页岩层系的岩相进行系统划分,对比不同岩相的孔隙结构及物性差异,探讨其有效孔隙网络及主控因素。根据粒度、TOC和矿物成分将长7₃细粒岩分为8种岩相类型,其中高有机质硅质页岩、凝灰岩及高有机质黏土质页岩三种岩相所占比例较高。长7₃页岩中有机质丰度高(平均20.04%),类型以Ⅰ型为主,处于低熟到成熟阶段。储集空间根据产状可分为基质孔隙(粒间孔、粒内孔、晶间孔、特大溶蚀孔)、有机质相关孔隙(有机质孔、有机质边缘孔隙)、裂缝(构造缝、成岩缝、晶面裂缝、粒边缝)。各岩相等温吸附曲线特征以IV型为主,迟滞回线以H₃型为主。宏孔是储集游离油的有效孔隙,储集性能受岩相、有机质含量及矿物组成控制。凝灰岩孔隙度、渗透率及宏孔比孔容最高,其次为高有机质硅质页岩和高有机质黏土质页岩,而低有机质页岩宏孔比孔容最小,介孔比孔容大。页岩中有机质、黄铁矿含量与宏孔比孔容呈正相关,凝灰岩中石英含量与宏孔比孔容也呈正相关。研究成果可为长7₃亚段页岩油甜点评价及预测提供地质依据。     

A Regional Ensemble Forecast System for Stratiform Precipitation Events in Northern China. Part I: A Case Study

A single-model,short-range,ensemble forecasting system (Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Regional Ensemble Forecast System,IAP REFS) with 15-km grid spacing,configured with multiple initial conditions,multiple lateral boundary conditions,and multiple physics parameterizations with 11 ensemble members,was developed using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model Advanced Research modeling system for prediction of stratiform precipitation events in northern China.This is the first part of a broader research project to develop a novel cloud-seeding operational system in a probabilistic framework.The ensemble perturbations were extracted from selected members of the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecasting System (NCEP GEFS) forecasts,and an inflation factor of two was applied to compensate for the lack of spread in the GEFS forecasts over the research region.Experiments on an actual stratiform precipitation case that occurred on 5-7 June 2009 in northern China were conducted to validate the ensemble system.The IAP REFS system had reasonably good performance in predicting the observed stratiform precipitation system.The perturbation inflation enlarged the ensemble spread and alleviated the underdispersion caused by parent forecasts.Centering the extracted perturbations on higher-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System forecasts resulted in less ensemble mean root-mean-square error and better accuracy in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF).However,the perturbation inflation and recentering had less effect on near-surface-level variables compared to the mid-level variables,and its influence on PQPF resolution was limited as well.     

A Regional Ensemble Forecast System for Stratiform Precipitation Events in the Northern China Region. Part II: Seasonal Evaluation for Summer 2010

In this study,the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences-regional ensemble forecast system(IAP-REFS) described in Part I was further validated through a 65-day experiment using the summer season of 2010.The verification results show that IAP-REFS is skillful for quantitative precipitation forecasts(QPF) and probabilistic QPF,but it has a systematic bias in forecasting near-surface variables.Applying a 7-day running mean bias correction to the forecasts of near-surface variables remarkably improved the reliability of the forecasts.In this study,the perturbation extraction and inflation method(proposed with the single case study in Part I) was further applied to the full season with different inflation factors.This method increased the ensemble spread and improved the accuracy of forecasts of precipitation and near-surface variables.The seasonal mean profiles of the IAP-REFS ensemble indicate good spread among ensemble members and some model biases at certain vertical levels.     

Impact of Soil Moisture Uncertainty on Summertime Short-range Ensemble Forecasts

To investigate the impact of soil moisture uncertainty on summertime short-range ensemble forecasts(SREFs), a fivemember SREF experiment with perturbed initial soil moisture(ISM) was performed over a northern China domain in summertime from July to August 2014. Five soil moisture analyses from three different operational/research centers were used as the ISM for the ensemble. The ISM perturbation produced notable ensemble spread in near-surface variables and atmospheric variables below 800 h Pa, and produced skillful ensemble-mean 24-h accumulated precipitation(APCP24) forecasts that outperformed any single ensemble member. Compared with a second SREF experiment with mixed microphysics parameterization options, the ISM-perturbed ensemble produced comparable ensemble spread in APCP24 forecasts, and had better Brier scores and resolution in probabilistic APCP24 forecasts for 10-mm, 25-mm and 50-mm thresholds. The ISM-perturbed ensemble produced obviously larger ensemble spread in near-surface variables. It was, however, still under-dispersed, indicating that perturbing ISM alone may not be adequate in representing all the uncertainty at the near-surface level, indicating further SREF studies are needed to better represent the uncertainties in land surface processes and their coupling with the atmosphere.     

多层螺旋CT在颌面部外伤中的运用

目的 探讨多排螺旋CT（MSCT）对颌面部外伤的应用价值。材料与方法 对20例颌面部外伤的患者行多排螺旋CT扫描，均行表面遮盖法（SSD），容积再现法（VR）和多平面重建法（MPR）三维重建。结果 SSD和VR对于颅骨较大，移位较明显的骨折显示良好，图像立体感强，直观。MPR可以较全面，细致的显示面颅骨骨折的情况，尤其是面颅骨深部的细微骨折。结论 恰当的运用多排螺旋CT（MSCT）的图像重建功能可以较为全面，准确，直观的显示颅面骨骨折的情况，对诊断，手术方案的制定等方面有重要作用。