Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system.Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty. 相似文献
Well-preserved Holocene terraces along the South Fork Payette River in central Idaho provide a record of fluvial system behavior in a steep mountain watershed characterized by weathered and erodible Idaho Batholith granitic rocks. Terrace deposit ages were provided by 14C dating of charcoal fragments and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sandy sediments. Along with pairing of many terrace tread heights, these data indicate episodic downcutting during the Holocene, with a mean incision rate of ~0.9 m/ka from ~7 ka to present. Prior to 7 ka, the river incised to within~3 m of current bankfull, but then aggraded by ~5 m over at least a ~10 km-long reach in an episode centered ~7–6 ka. Aggradation may relate to (1) increased hillslope sediment input from landslides and debris flows in steep tributary basins with abundant grussified granitic bedrock, (2) possible local landslide-damming of the channel, (3) decreased peak discharge, or (4) a combination of these factors. Middle Holocene channel aggradation ca. 7–6 ka corresponds with a period of prolonged and widespread aridity in the northern Rocky Mountains. Between ~5 and 1.3 ka, the river aggraded slightly and then remained stable, forming a prominent terrace tread at ~3 m above current bankfull. Modest aggradation to vertical stability of the South Fork Payette River at the 1.5 m terrace level ~1.0–0.7 ka corresponds with large fire-related debris flows in tributaries during Medieval droughts. Three intervals of incision (~5.5–5 ka, 1.3–1.0 ka and 0.5 ka) correspond with frequent but small fire-related sedimentation events and generally cooler, wetter conditions suggesting increased snowmelt runoff discharges. Other possible drivers of channel incision include an increase in stochastic or climate-modulated large storms and floods and a reduction in delivery of hillslope sediment to the channel. Aggradation is more confidently tied to climate through increases in hillslope sediment delivery and (or) decreased stream power, both likely related to warmer, drier conditions (including high-severity fires) that reduce snowmelt and decrease vegetation cover on steep slopes. Thus, the Holocene terraces of the South Fork Payette River do not reflect simple stepwise incision with periods of vertical stability and lateral migration, but record substantial episodes of aggradation as well. We infer that increases in hillslope erosion and mass movements combined with reduced discharges during prolonged droughts episodically reverse the post-glacial trend of downcutting, in particular during the middle Holocene. The present bedrock-dominated channel implies a strong tendency toward incision in the late Holocene. 相似文献
Although there have been noticeable improvements in recent years, geography continues to be a predominantly male discipline. The percentage of women receiving PhDs in geography has tracked lower than the U.S. average of female PhDs. Previous studies of women's contribution to geography have focused on personal accounts or on the study of some of the most prominent practitioners, with a few studies using basic data on PhDs awarded and Association of American Geographers membership to determine trends. This article provides a comprehensive overview of doctoral degrees in geography by gender, over time, and across all universities in the United States by examining an alternative database, that of doctoral dissertations. The analysis yields three separate types of results. First, historical and contemporary variations among U.S. universities are examined. Second, data indicate that male and female doctoral students differ in the sex of their advisor. Third, a simple regression model explains some of the discrepancies in the proportion of female doctoral students by department. In sum, this article provides a comprehensive empirical study of the factors that might contribute to the continued disparities in female doctoral students in geography. 相似文献
Kimberlite pipes from Chidliak, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada host surface-derived Paleozoic carbonate xenoliths containing conodonts. Conodonts are phosphatic marine microfossils that experience progressive, cumulative and irreversible colour changes upon heating that are experimentally calibrated as a conodont colour alteration index (CAI). CAI values permit us to estimate the temperatures to which conodont-bearing rocks have been heated. Conodonts have been recovered from 118 samples from 89 carbonate xenoliths collected from 12 of the pipes and CAI values within individual carbonate xenoliths show four types of CAI distributions: (1) CAI values that are uniform throughout the xenolith; (2) lower CAIs in core of a xenolith than the rim; (3) CAIs that increase from one side of the xenolith to the other; and, (4) in one xenolith, higher CAIs in the xenolith core than at the rim. We have used thermal models for post-emplacement conductive cooling of kimberlite pipes and synchronous heating of conodont-bearing xenoliths to establish the temperature–time history of individual xenoliths within the kimberlite bodies. Model results suggest that the time-spans for xenoliths to reach the peak temperatures recorded by CAIs varies from hours for the smallest xenoliths to 2 or 3 years for the largest xenoliths. The thermal modelling shows the first three CAI patterns to be consistent with in situ conductive heating of the xenoliths coupled to the cooling host kimberlite. The fourth pattern remains an anomaly.
A landslide susceptibility mapping study was performed using dynamic hillslope hydrology. The modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture (SM) was applied at Cleveland Corral, California, US and Krishnabhir, Dhading, Nepal. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) model simulated vadose zone soil moisture and the wetness index hydrologic model simulated groundwater (GW). The GW model predictions had a 75% NASH-Sutcliffe efficiency when compared to California’s in-situ GW measurements. The model performed best during the wet season. Using predicted GW and VIC-3L vadose zone SM, the developed landslide susceptibility maps showed very good agreement with mapped landslides at each study region. Previous quasi-dynamic model predictions of Nepal’s hazardous areas during extreme rainfall events were enhanced to improve the spatial characterization and provide the timing of hazardous conditions. 相似文献
Over this one-year study, the variations of inorganic As species were examined monthly along the salinity gradient of the Penzé estuary (NW France) in relation with different biogeochemical parameters. In most cases, dissolved As exhibited a non-conservative behaviour which resulted from the competition between two major processes. In the upstream section of the estuary, a strong input of both total inorganic As and As(III) occurred. Then, the removal of the same species, under precipitation of iron oxides/oxyhydroxides, was observed in the low-salinity range (S < 10). Using our experimental data, the fluxes of the various As species were estimated for the first time in estuarine waters. Inputs from the river were mainly constituted of particulate As (∼70%). Conversely, dissolved species were predominant in the net fluxes (∼65%) and As(III) accounted for ∼15% of the dissolved net flux. 相似文献