Simulation of seismic response in a city-like environment

We study the seismic response of idealized 2D cities, constituted by non-equally spaced, non-equally sized homogenized blocks anchored in a soft layer overlying a hard half space. The blocks and soft layer are occupied by dissipative media. To simulate such response, we use an approximation of the viscoelastic modulus by a low-order rational function of frequency and incorporate this approximation into a first-order-in-time scheme. Our results display spatially variable, strong, long-duration responses inside the blocks and on the ground, which qualitatively match the responses observed in some earthquake-prone cities of Mexico, France, the USA, etc.     

Late Quaternary kinematics of the Pallatanga strike-slip fault (Central Ecuador) from topographic measurements of displaced morphological features

The northeast-trending Pallatanga right-lateral strike-slip fault runs across the Western Cordillera connecting N50E-N70E trending normal faults in the Gulf of Guayaquil with N-S reverse faults in the Interandean Depression. Over most of its length, the fault trace has been partly obscured by erosional processes and can be inferred in the topography only at the large scale. Only the northern fault segment, which follows the upper Rio Pangor valley at elevations above 3600 m, is prominent in the morphology. Valleys and ridges cut and offset by the fault provide an outstanding record of right-lateral cumulative fault displacement. The fault geometry and kinematics of this particular fault segment can be determined from detailed topographic levellings. The fault strikes N30E and dips 75 to the NW. Depending on their size and nature, transverse morphological features such as tributaries of the Rio Pangor and intervening ridges, reveal right-lateral offsets which cluster around 27 ± 11m, 41.5 ± 4 m, 590 ± 65 m and 960 ± 70 m. The slip vector deduced from the short-term offsets shows a slight reverse component with a pitch of about 11.5 SW. The 41.5 ± 4 m displacements are assumed to be coeval with the last glacial termination, yielding a mean Holocene slip-rate of 2.9- 4.6 mm yr⁻¹. Assuming a uniform slip rate on the fault in the long term, the 27 m offset appears to correlate with an identified middle Holocene morphoclimatic event, and the long term offsets of 590 m and 960 m coincide with the glacial terminations at the beginning of the last two interglacial periods.     

Observed dependence of the water vapor and clear-sky greenhouse effect on sea surface temperature: comparison with climate warming experiments

This study presents a comparison of the water vapor and clear-sky greenhouse effect dependence on sea surface temperature for climate variations of different types. Firstly, coincident satellite observations and meteorological analyses are used to examine seasonal and interannual variations and to evaluate the performance of a general circulation model. Then, this model is used to compare the results inferred from the analysis of observed climate variability with those derived from global climate warming experiments. One part of the coupling between the surface temperature, the water vapor and the clear-sky greenhouse effect is explained by the dependence of the saturation water vapor pressure on the atmospheric temperature. However, the analysis of observed and simulated fields shows that the coupling is very different according to the type of region under consideration and the type of climate forcing that is applied to the Earth-atmosphere system. This difference, due to the variability of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, is analyzed in detail by considering the temperature lapse rate and the vertical profile of relative humidity. Our results suggest that extrapolating the feedbacks inferred from seasonal and short-term interannual climate variability to longer-term climate changes requires great caution. It is argued that our confidence in climate models' predictions would be increased significantly if the basic physical processes that govern the variability of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, and its relation to the large-scale circulation, were better understood and simulated. For this purpose, combined observational and numerical studies focusing on physical processes are needed.     

Monitoring above-zone temperature variations associated with CO2 and brine leakage from a storage aquifer

CO₂ injection in saline aquifers induces temperature changes owing to processes such as Joule–Thomson cooling, endothermic water vaporization, exothermic CO₂ dissolution besides the temperature discrepancy between injected and native fluids. CO₂ leaking from the injection zone, in addition to initial temperature contrast due to the geothermal gradient, undergoes similar processes, causing temperature changes in the above zone. Numerical simulation tools were used to evaluate temperature changes associated with CO₂ leakage from the storage aquifer to an above-zone monitoring interval and to assess the monitorability of CO₂ leakage on the basis of temperature data. The impact of both CO₂ and brine leakage on temperature response is considered for three cases (1) a leaky well co-located with the injection well, (2) a leaky well distant from the injector, and (3) a leaky fault. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine key operational and reservoir parameters that control the temperature signal in the above zone. Throughout the analysis injection-zone parameters remain unchanged. Significant pressure drop upon leakage causes expansion of CO₂ associated with Joule–Thomson cooling. However, brine may begin leaking before CO₂ breakthrough at the leakage pathway, causing heating in the above zone. Thus, unlike the pressure which increases in response to both CO₂ and brine leakage, the temperature signal may differentiate between the leaking fluids. In addition, the strength of the temperature signal correlates with leakage velocity unlike pressure signal whose strength depends on leakage rate. Increasing leakage conduit cross-sectional area increases leakage rate and thus increases pressure change in the above zone. However, it decreases leakage velocity, and therefore, reduces temperature cooling and signal. It is also shown that the leakage-induced temperature change covers a small area around the leakage pathway. Thus, temperature data will be most useful if collected along potential leaky wells and/or wells intersecting potential leaky faults.     

Active spreading and hydrothermalism in North Fiji Basin (SW Pacific). Results of Japanese French Cruise Kaiyo 87

The aim of the Japanese-French Kaiyo 87 cruise was the study of the spreading axis in the North Fiji Basin (SW Pacific). A Seabeam and geophysical survey allowed us to define the detailed structure of the active NS spreading axis between 16° and 22° S and its relationships with the left lateral motion of the North Fiji Fracture Zone. Between 21° S and 18°10′ S, the spreading axis trends NS. From 18°10 S to 16°40 S the orientation of the spreading axis changes from NS to 015°. North of 16°40′ S the spreading axis trends 160°. These two 015° and 160° branches converge with the left lateral North Fiji fracture zone around 16°40′ S to define an RRFZ triple junction. Water sampling, dredging and photo TV deep towing give new information concerning the hydrothermal activity along the spreading axis. The discovery of hydrothermal deposits associated with living communities confirms this activity.     

Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.     

A procedure for automated quality control and homogenization of historical daily temperature and precipitation data (APACH): part 1: quality control and application to the Argentine weather service stations

The present paper describes the quality-control component of an automatic procedure (APACH: A Procedure for Automated Quality Control and Homogenization of Weather Station Data) developed to control quality and homogenize the historical daily temperature and precipitation data from meteorological stations. The quality-control method is based on a set of decision-tree algorithms analyzing separately precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature. All our tests are non-parametric and therefore are potentially useful in regions or countries presenting different climates as those observed in Argentina. The method is applied to the 1959–2005 historical daily database of the Argentine National Weather Service. Our results are coherent with the history of the Weather Service and more specifically with the history of implementation of systematized quality control processes. In temperature, our method detects a larger number of suspect values before 1967 (when there was no quality control) and after 1997 (when only real-time quality control had been applied). In precipitation, the detection of error in extreme precipitations is complex, but our method clearly detected a strong decrease in the number of potential outliers after 1976 when the National Weather Service was militarized, and the network was strongly reduced, focusing more on airport weather stations. Also in precipitation, we analyze in detail the long dry sequences and are able to identify potential long erroneous sequences. This is important for the use of the data for hydrological or agricultural impact studies. Finally, all the data are flagged with codes representing the path followed by the record in our decision-tree algorithms. While each code is associated to one of the categories (“Useful”, “Need-Check”, “Doubtful” or “Suspect”), the final user is free to redefine such category-assignment.     

Twentieth century ENSO characteristics in the IPCC database

In this paper, we assess and compare to observations the spatial characteristics of the twentieth Century ENSO SST variability simulated by 23 models of the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 database. The analysis is confined to the SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific and is based on the use of a non-linear neural classification algorithm, the Self-Organizing Maps. Systematic biases include a larger than observed proportion for modelled ENSO maximum variability occurring in the Western Pacific. No clear relationship is found between this bias and the characteristics of the modelled mean state bias in the equatorial Pacific. This bias is mainly related to a misrepresentation of both El Niño and La Niña termination phases for most of the models. In contrast, the onset phase is quite well simulated. Modelled El Niño and La Niña peak phases display an asymmetric bias. Whereas the main bias of the modelled El Niño peak is to exhibit a maximum in the western Pacific, the simulated La Niña bias mainly occurs in the central Pacific. In addition, some models are able to capture the observed El Niño peak characteristics while none of them realistically simulate La Niña peaks. It also arises that the models closest to the observations score unevenly in reproducing the different phases, preventing an accurate classification of the models quality to reproduce the overall ENSO-like variability.     

Seismic motion in urban sites consisting of blocks in welded contact with a soft layer overlying a hard half-space

We address the problem of the response to a seismic wave of an urban site consisting of   N _b   blocks overlying a soft layer underlain by a hard substratum. The results of a theoretical analysis, appealing to a space–frequency mode-matching (MM) technique, are compared to those obtained by a space–time finite-element (FE) technique. The two methods are shown to give rise to the same prediction of the seismic response for   N _b = 1  , 2 and 40 blocks. The mechanism of the interaction between blocks and the ground, as well as that of the mutual interaction between blocks, are studied. It is shown, in the first part of this paper, that the presence of a small number of blocks modifies the seismic disturbance in a manner which evokes qualitatively, but not quantitatively, what was observed during the 1985 Michoacan earthquake in Mexico City. Anomalous earthquake response at a much greater level, in terms of duration, peak and cumulative amplitude of motion, is shown, by a theoretical and numerical analysis in the second part of this paper, to be induced by the presence of a large (≥10) number of identical equi-spaced blocks that are present in certain districts of many cities.