A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

Assessing the performance of WRF model in predicting high-impact weather conditions over Central and Western Africa: an ensemble-based approach

Natural Hazards - For numerical weather prediction over a particular region, it is important to know the best combination of physical parameterizations available in the considered modelling frame...     

Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

Evaluation of probabilistic precipitation forecast determined from WRF forecasted amounts

This paper examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecast amounts from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs over Central and West Africa. A one season period (June–September 2010) was used to investigate the quantitative precipitation forecast–probability relationship. The predictive capability of this relationship was then tested on an independent sample of data (June–September 2011); 2010 and 2011 were wet and dry years, respectively. The results show that rainfall is less likely to occur in those areas where the model indicates no precipitation than it is elsewhere in the domain. Rainfall is more likely to occur in those regions where precipitation is predicted, especially where the predicted precipitation amounts are largest. The probabilities of rainfall forecasts based on this relationship are found to possess skill as measured by relative operating characteristic curves, reliability diagrams, and Brier skill scores. Skillful forecasts from the technique exist throughout 24-h periods for which WRF output was available. The results suggest that this forecasting tool might assist forecasters throughout the season in a wide variety of weather events and not only in areas of difficult-to-forecast convective systems.     

Mineralogy and geochemical behaviour during weathering of greenstone belt under tropical dry conditions in the extreme North Cameroon (Central Africa)

Mineralogy, major, trace and rare earth elements of a weathering profile developed on tertiary greenstone belt in the extreme North Cameroon are reported. The aim of which was to investigate mineralogical evolution and element mobilization and redistribution during weathering under dry tropical climate. The weathering profile consists of four main horizons: (1) a spheroidal weathering zone constituted by a corestone–shell complex, (2) a C horizon, (3) a Bw horizon and an Ah horizon. The results indicate that nontronite, a Fe-rich smectite, is the exclusive clay mineral formed in the exfoliated shells and the C horizon. It is associated with kaolinite in the upper horizons. The coexistence of these two clay minerals induced a decrease of CEC and pH which becomes neutral. The weathering index (WI) values reveal that weathering becomes more and more intensive from the corestone up to Bw horizon, which is the most weathered horizon in the weathering profile. Mass balance calculations, using Th as immobile element, indicate that Ti is quite mobile and that Al and Fe are relatively enriched at the bottom and strongly leached at the top of the profile. Alkalis and alkaline earth elements are strong leached through out the profile, except Ca which displays similar trend as Al and Fe. The same goes for LILE (Cs, Sr), TTE (Cr, Co, Ni) and HSFE (Y, Nb, Hf). In opposite, REE are depleted at the bottom and enriched in the upper horizons, with more enrichment for LREE than for HREE. It appears that weathering of greenstone belt causes a fractionation of HREE and induces a concentration of LREEs. Ce and Eu anomalies display opposite behaviour.     

Heat,volume and chemical fluxes from submarine venting: A synthesis of results from the Rainbow hydrothermal field, 36°N MAR

High-temperature hydrothermal activity occurs in all ocean basins and along ridge crests of all spreading rates. While it has long been recognized that the fluxes associated with such venting are large, precise quantification of their impact on ocean biogeochemistry has proved elusive. Here, we report a comprehensive study of heat, fluid and chemical fluxes from a single submarine hydrothermal field. To achieve this, we have exploited the integrating nature of the non-buoyant plume dispersing above the Rainbow hydrothermal field, a long-lived and tectonically hosted high-temperature vent site on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Our calculations yield heat and volume fluxes for high-temperature fluids exiting the seafloor of ～0.5 GW and 450 L s^?1, together with accompanying chemical fluxes, for Fe, Mn and CH₄ of ～10, ～1 and ～1 mol s^?1, respectively. Accompanying fluxes for 25 additional chemical species that are associated with Fe-rich plume particles have also been calculated as they are transported away from the Rainbow vent site before settling to the seabed. High-temperature venting has been found to recur at least once every ～100 km along all slow-spreading ridges investigated to-date, with half of all known sites on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge occurring as long-lived and tectonically hosted systems. If these patterns persist along all slow- and ultraslow-spreading ridges, high-temperature venting of the kind reported here could account for ～50% of the on-axis hydrothermal heat flux along ～30,000 km of the ～55,000 km global ridge crest.     

The information system of the French Peatland Observation Service: Service National d'Observation Tourbières – A valuable tool to assess the impact of global changes on the hydrology and biogeochemistry of temperate peatlands through long term monitoring

Mitigating and adapting to global changes requires a better understanding of the response of the Biosphere to these environmental variations. Human disturbances and their effects act in the long term (decades to centuries) and consequently, a similar time frame is needed to fully understand the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of a natural system. To this end, the ‘Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique’ (CNRS) promotes and certifies long-term monitoring tools called national observation services or ‘Service National d'Observation’ (SNO) in a large range of hydrological and biogeochemical systems (e.g., cryosphere, catchments, aquifers). The SNO investigating peatlands, the SNO ‘Tourbières’, was certified in 2011 ( https://www.sno-tourbieres.cnrs.fr/ ). Peatlands are mostly found in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and French peatlands are located in the southern part of this area. Thus, they are located in environmental conditions that will occur in northern peatlands in coming decades or centuries and can be considered as sentinels. The SNO Tourbières is composed of four peatlands: La Guette (lowland central France), Landemarais (lowland oceanic western France), Frasne (upland continental eastern France) and Bernadouze (upland southern France). Thirty target variables are monitored to study the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of the sites. They are grouped into four datasets: hydrology, fluvial export of organic matter, greenhouse gas fluxes and meteorology/soil physics. The data from all sites follow a common processing chain from the sensors to the public repository. The raw data are stored on an FTP server. After operator or automatic processing, data are stored in a database, from which a web application extracts the data to make them available ( https://data-snot.cnrs.fr/data-access/ ). Each year at least, an archive of each dataset is stored in Zenodo, with a digital object identifier (DOI) attribution ( https://zenodo.org/communities/sno_tourbieres_data/ ).     

Identifying the accidental-natural mortality of leporids in the archaeological record: insights from a taphonomical analysis of a pitfall without evidence of human presence

Leporids (Lagomorpha, Mammalia), especially the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) and the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), have been among the most abundant small game in western Europe since the Pleistocene. These animals are preferred prey for more than 40 predators, which increases the chances of finding their skeletal remains at archaeological or natural sites, and in particular karstic formations alternately occupied by Palaeolithic human societies and other predators. Moreover, specific eco-ethological characteristics for both species also offer the possibility to produce a substantial quantity of their bones accumulated by natural mortality without predation, making it more difficult to identify their origin in the fossil record. Despite this fact, the taphonomic signature of accidental-natural accumulations of leporids in karsts, such as pitfalls, has never been properly characterised. In order to address these issues, we carried out a detailed taphonomic study of leporid remains in a pitfall without any evidence of human activity, namely at Coulet des Roches (Monieux, Vaucluse, south-eastern France). At this site, leporids are the most abundant species throughout the Last Glacial Maximum sedimentary sequence. The bone accumulation was analysed in order to determine the most relevant criteria to identify a natural accumulation that results from the accidental fall of individuals in the pitfall. The relative proportions of each species are consistent with their current ethology, and their mortality profiles are compatible with the structure of a living natural population. The completeness rate of the different skeletal portions for both species is relatively high, bones are less fragmented and, unlike what might be expected, very few anatomical connections were preserved. The observed anatomical representation, breakage, and bone surface modification patterns are discussed and compared with available data concerning accumulations with predation. Taken together, the identified criteria contribute valuable help in the recognition of accidental mortality in the fossil record, as well as to evaluate the proportion of leporid bones accumulated naturally and those accumulated by predation, human or not, in a deposit.     

Energetic Charged Particles Above Thunderclouds

The French government has committed to launch the satellite TARANIS to study transient coupling processes between the Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth space. The prime objective of TARANIS is to detect energetic charged particles and hard radiation emanating from thunderclouds. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson predicted lightning discharges from the top of thunderclouds into space almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed energetic discharge processes which transfer energy from the top of thunderclouds into the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space; they are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma-ray flashes and relativistic electron beams. This meeting report builds on the current state of scientific knowledge on the physics of plasmas in the laboratory and naturally occurring plasmas in the Earth’s atmosphere to propose areas of future research. The report specifically reflects presentations delivered by the members of a novel Franco-British collaboration during a meeting at the French Embassy in London held in November 2011. The scientific subjects of the report tackle ionization processes leading to electrical discharge processes, observations of transient luminous events, electromagnetic emissions, energetic charged particles and their impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. The importance of future research in this area for science and society, and towards spacecraft protection, is emphasized.     

Wave groupiness and spectral bandwidth as relevant parameters for the performance assessment of wave energy converters

To date the estimation of long-term wave energy production at a given deployment site has commonly been limited to a consideration of the significant wave height H_s and mean energy period T_e. This paper addresses the sensitivity of power production from wave energy converters to the wave groupiness and spectral bandwidth of sea states. Linear and non-linear systems are implemented to simulate the response of converters equipped with realistic power take-off devices in real sea states. It is shown in particular that, when the converters are not much sensitive to wave directionality, the bandwidth characteristic is appropriate to complete the set of overall wave parameters describing the sea state for the purpose of estimating wave energy production.