When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Cytochrome P4501A biomarker indication of the timeline of chronic exposure of Barrow's goldeneyes to residual Exxon Valdez oil

We examined hepatic EROD activity, as an indicator of CYP1A induction, in Barrow’s goldeneyes captured in areas oiled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill and those from nearby unoiled areas. We found that average EROD activity differed between areas during 2005, although the magnitude of the difference was reduced relative to a previous study from 1996/1997, and we found that areas did not differ by 2009. Similarly, we found that the proportion of individuals captured from oiled areas with elevated EROD activity (?2 times unoiled average) declined from 41% in winter 1996/1997 to 10% in 2005 and 15% in 2009. This work adds to a body of literature describing the timelines over which vertebrates were exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil and indicates that, for Barrow’s goldeneyes in Prince William Sound, exposure persisted for many years with evidence of substantially reduced exposure by 2 decades after the spill.     

Entrainment and emplacement of englacial debris bands near the margin of Storglaciären,Sweden

Internal structure, stable isotope composition and tritium concentration were measured in and around debris‐bearing ice at the margin of Storglaciären, where englacial debris bands have previously been inferred to form by thrusting. Two types of debris bands were distinguished: (i) an unsorted diamicton band that is laterally continuous for more than 200 m, and (ii) well‐sorted sand and gravel bands that are lenticular and discontinuous. Above‐background tritium levels and enrichment of δ¹⁸ O and δD in ice from the diamicton band indicate entrainment by basal freeze‐on since 1952. Isotopic enrichment and tritium‐free ice in the sandy debris bands also indicate entrainment in freezing water, but prior to 1952. The lenticular cross‐section, sorting and stratification of the sandy bands suggest that they were deposited englacially. The basally accreted diamicton band has been elevated tens of metres above the bed and presently overlies the englacially deposited sandy bands, suggesting that the stratigraphy has been disrupted. Three interpretations could account for these observations: (i) thrusting of fast‐moving ice over slow, marginal ice uplifting recently accreted basal ice along the fault; (ii) folding near the margin, elevating young basal ice over older basal and englacial ice; and (iii) debris‐band formation by an unknown mechanism and subsequent contamination of ice geochemical properties by meltwater flow through debris bands. Although none of these interpretations is consistent with all measurements, folding is most compatible with observations and local ice‐flow kinematics.     

Differential equations governing slip-induced pore-pressure fluctuations in a water-saturated granular medium

Macroscopic frictional slip in water-saturated granular media occurs commonly during landsliding, surface faulting, and intense bedload transport. A mathematical model of dynamic pore-pressure fluctuations that accompany and influence such sliding is derived here by both inductive and deductive methods. The inductive derivation shows how the governing differential equations represent the physics of the steadily sliding array of cylindrical fiberglass rods investigated experimentally by Iverson and LaHusen (1989). The deductive derivation shows how the same equations result from a novel application of Biot's (1956) dynamic mixture theory to macroscopic deformation. The model consists of two linear differential equations and five initial and boundary conditions that govern solid displacements and pore-water pressures. Solid displacements and water pressures are strongly coupled, in part through a boundary condition that ensures mass conservation during irreversible pore deformation that occurs along the bumpy slip surface. Feedback between this deformation and the pore-pressure field may yield complex system responses. The dual derivations of the model help explicate key assumptions. For example, the model requires that the dimensionless parameterB, defined here through normalization of Biot's equations, is much larger than one. This indicates that solid-fluid coupling forces are dominated by viscous rather than inertial effects. A tabulation of physical and kinematic variables for the rod-array experiments of Iverson and LaHusen and for various geologic phenomena shows that the model assumptions commonly are satisfied. A subsequent paper will describe model tests against experimental data.     

Debris flows: behaviour and hazard assessment

Debris flows are water‐laden masses of soil and fragmented rock that rush down mountainsides, funnel into stream channels, entrain objects in their paths, and form lobate deposits when they spill onto valley floors. Because they have volumetric sediment concentrations that exceed 40 percent, maximum speeds that surpass 10 m/s, and sizes that can range up to ～10⁹ m³, debris flows can denude slopes, bury floodplains, and devastate people and property. Computational models can accurately represent the physics of debris‐flow initiation, motion and deposition by simulating evolution of flow mass and momentum while accounting for interactions of debris’ solid and fluid constituents. The use of physically based models for hazard forecasting can be limited by imprecise knowledge of initial and boundary conditions and material properties, however. Therefore, empirical methods continue to play an important role in debris‐flow hazard assessment.     

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in suitable habitat modeled at various times during this century. Consequences are related to the adaptability of the species to cope with the changes, especially the increasing intensity and/or frequency of disturbance events that are projected. We derived consequence scores from nine biological and 12 disturbance characteristics that were pulled from literature for each species. All data were generated from an atlas of climate change for 134 trees of the eastern United States (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas). We show examples which depict a wide range of risk for tree species of northern Wisconsin, including species that may gain substantial habitat as well as lose substantial habitat, both of which will require the development of strategies to help the ecosystems adapt to such changes.     

The effect of groundwater seepage on nutrient delivery and seagrass distribution in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

A hypothesis was tested to determine if a relationship exists between rates of submarine groundwater discharge and the distribution of seagrass beds in the coastal, nearshore northeastern Gulf of Mexico. As determined by nonparametric statistics, four of seven seagrass beds in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico had significantly greater submarine groundwater discharge compared with adjacent sandy areas, but the remainder exhibited the opposite relationship. We were thus unable to verify if a relationship exists between submarine groundwater discharge and the distribution of seagrass beds in the nearshore sites selected. A second objective of this study was to determine the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus delivered to nearshore areas by submarine groundwater discharge. We considered new nutrient inputs to be delivered to surface waters by the upward flux of fresh water. This upward flux of water encounters saline porewaters in the surficial sediments and these porewaters contain recycled nutrients; actual nutrient flux from the sediment to overlying waters includes both new and recycled nutrients. New inputs of nitrogen to overlying surface waters for one 10-km section of coastline, calculated by multiplying groundwater nutrient concentrations from freshwater wells by measured seepage rates, were on the order of 1,100±190 mol N d⁻¹. New and recycled nitrogen fluxes, calculated by multiplying surficial porewater concentrations by measured seepage rates, yielded fluxes of 3,600 ±1,000 mol N d⁻¹. Soluble reactive phosphate values were 150±40 mol P d⁻¹ using freshwater well concentrations and 130±3.0 mol P d⁻¹ using porewater concentrations. These values are comparable to the average nutrient delivery of a small, local river.     

Phytoplankton Biomass and Composition in a River-Dominated Estuary During Two Summers of Contrasting River Discharge

Estuaries located in the northern Gulf of Mexico are expected to experience reduced river discharge due to increasing demand for freshwater and predicted periods of declining precipitation. Changes in freshwater and nutrient input might impact estuarine higher trophic level productivity through changes in phytoplankton quantity and quality. Phytoplankton biomass and composition were examined in Apalachicola Bay, Florida during two summers of contrasting river discharge. The <20 μm autotrophs were the main component (92?±?3 %; n?=?14) of phytoplankton biomass in lower (<25 psu) salinity waters. In these lower salinity waters containing higher dissolved inorganic nutrients, phycocyanin containing cyanobacteria made the greatest contribution to phytoplankton biomass (69?±?3 %; n?=?14) followed by <20 μm eukaryotes (19?±?1 %; n?=?14), and phycoerythrin containing cyanobacteria (4?±?1 %; n?=?14). In waters with salinity from 25 to 35 psu that were located within or in close proximity to the estuary, >20 μm diatoms were an increasingly (20 to 70 %) larger component of phytoplankton biomass. Lower summer river discharges that lead to an areal contraction of lower (5–25 psu) salinity waters composed of higher phytoplankton biomass dominated by small (<20 μm) autotrophs will lead to a concomitant areal expansion of higher (>25 psu) salinity waters composed of relatively lower phytoplankton biomass and a higher percent contribution by >20 μm diatoms. A reduction in summer river discharge that leads to such a change in quantity and quality of estuarine phytoplankton available will result in a reduction in estuarine zooplankton productivity and possibly the productivity of higher trophic levels.     

Modelling topographic potential for erosion and deposition using GIS

Abstract

Modelling of erosion and deposition in complex terrain within a geographical information system (GIS) requires a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM), reliable estimation of topographic parameters, and formulation of erosion models adequate for digital representation of spatially distributed parameters. Regularized spline with tension was integrated within a GIS for computation of DEMs and topographic parameters from digitized contours or other point elevation data. For construction of flow lines and computation of upslope contributing areas an algorithm based on vector-grid approach was developed. The spatial distribution of areas with topographic potential for erosion or deposition was then modelled using the approach based on the unit stream power and directional derivatives of surface representing the sediment transport capacity. The methods presented are illustrated on study areas in central Illinois and the Yakima Ridge, Washington.     

Precaution and proportionality in the management of global environmental change

The precautionary principle is a mandate to tread cautiously when managing novel threats to the environment or human health. A major obstacle when applying the principle at the international level is disagreement about how precautionary efforts should be constrained to ensure that policy costs are proportional to the attained level of protection. Proportionality is an unresolved question when preliminary evidence precludes decision-makers from assigning probabilities over future events. The paper suggests practical analytical tools for communicating ex ante trade-offs when probabilities are unavailable. The tools could be used to facilitate discussion and compromise when implementing precautionary decisions in international settings where cooperation is important. The approach is demonstrated in an application to climate policy that uses the integrated assessment model DICE (Nordhaus, 2008). The paper also situates the task of precautionary decision-making within the broader context of implementing a precautionary response at the international level.