Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example--Sydney,Australia

This paper is concerned with the methodology of forecasting population change and structures of large cities and their major subregions. "The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, inter-state and city-hinterland migration streams and the national increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change." The model is applied to data for Sydney, Australia, and its applicability to other urban systems is considered.     

Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk

This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.     

Growth of estuarine fish is associated with the combined concentration of sediment contaminants and shows no adaptation or acclimation to past conditions

We tested whether the growth rates of small benthic fish (Gillichthys mirabilis) in three southern California estuaries corresponded with the local concentrations of contaminants. Fish originating from each estuary were transplanted to cages in each estuary in two reciprocal transplant experiments. The growth rates of caged fish, and the size-distribution of natural populations, showed the same pattern of difference among estuaries. Twelve metals and organic contaminants occurred in bulk sediments at concentrations close to their individual ERL values, and a simple index of their combined concentration (the mean ERL quotient) was inversely correlated to the growth of caged fish. Metals in the water column occurred at lower concentrations, relative to toxicity thresholds, than those in sediments and were unrelated to fish growth. Fish used in the field caging experiments, and other fish held in the laboratory under constant conditions, showed no difference in growth according to their estuary of origin. Fish originating from different estuaries also showed no consistent differences in their tissue burden of organic contaminants. Our results thus suggested no genetic adaptation or physiological acclimation to the past contaminant regime, but revealed a possible association between fish growth rates and the combined concentration of multiple sediment contaminants.