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河口大型滩涂演化关系到航运通畅、生态保护以及近岸工程的安全性,是地貌学和工程界关注的热点。利用单波束测深系统对长江口崇明东滩进行高精度监测,并结合近年来周围环境因素分析其冲淤格局。结果表明:(1) 2011-2017年间崇明东滩和北港北沙基本以淤积为主,北港北汊河槽中央局部形成-2 m心滩,-5 m等深线包络面积基本稳定,整体呈"长高不长大"的格局;(2)海洋来沙是其淤积的主要物源,汊道涨落潮时空分异而形成的两大环流是塑造此地形的主要原因;崇明东滩和北港北沙的淤积直接挤压北港北汊的发展,沙体淤积可能会引起未来两大沙体的并靠;(3)崇明东滩、北支南沿的滩涂整治工程是促进北支萎缩和崇明东滩淤积的重要因素,另外横沙通道落潮分流增加,青草沙围水工程改变了北港河槽的曲率,也有利于北港北沙的淤积。 相似文献
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地表变形、活动断裂和地球物理的综合分析表明,菲律宾洋壳向欧亚大陆的俯冲导致的地幔对流是控制中国东部沿海地区晚新生代以来构造作用的主导因素,是长江口地区地面沉降的主要深部动力学机制。由于地幔对流和青藏高原挤压共同作用导致的地壳热流值的差异则是长江口地区西部隆升、东部沉降且向东沉降速率增大的直接驱动力。预测未来长江口地区的基岩沉降范围将以>10cm/a的速率向西扩大,沉降速率将呈明显加速趋势,40000a之内上海市可能被海水淹没,但板块构造演化的“渐变”特征决定其对当地未来的人类活动不会造成显著影响。根据“地壳均衡理论”,建议在长江口南西部(浙江省北东部)的丘陵山区加大重力载荷如加快城市化进程或人工造山以减小和控制上海地区的沉降。 相似文献
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Land-subsidence prediction depends on an appropriate subsidence model and the calibration of its parameter values. A modified inverse procedure is developed and applied to calibrate five parameters in a compacting confined aquifer system using records of field data from vertical extensometers and corresponding hydrographs. The inverse procedure of COMPAC (InvCOMPAC) has been used in the past for calibrating vertical hydraulic conductivity of the aquitards, nonrecoverable and recoverable skeletal specific storages of the aquitards, skeletal specific storage of the aquifers, and initial preconsolidation stress within the aquitards. InvCOMPAC is modified to increase robustness in this study. There are two main differences in the modified InvCOMPAC model (MInvCOMPAC). One is that field data are smoothed before diagram analysis to reduce local oscillation of data and remove abnormal data points. A robust locally weighted regression method is applied to smooth the field data. The other difference is that the Newton-Raphson method, with a variable scale factor, is used to conduct the computer-based inverse adjustment procedure. MInvCOMPAC is then applied to calibrate parameters in a land subsidence model of Shanghai, China. Five parameters of aquifers and aquitards at 15 multiple-extensometer sites are calibrated. Vertical deformation of sedimentary layers can be predicted by the one-dimensional COMPAC model with these calibrated parameters at extensometer sites. These calibrated parameters could also serve as good initial values for parameters of three-dimensional regional land subsidence models of Shanghai. 相似文献
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