Modeling of the Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) lahars

Lahars, here defined as debris flows of volcanic origin, are rapid mass movements that pose a serious threat to cities located in the vicinity of many volcanoes. Quito, capital city of Ecuador and placed at the foot of the Pichincha volcano complex, is exposed to serious inundation hazard as part of the city is built on numerous deposits of large lahars that have occurred in the last 10,000 years.The objective of this paper is to model the potential lahars of the Pichincha volcano to predict inundation areas within the city of Quito. For this purpose two models that apply different approaches were utilized and their results were compared.The programs used were LAHARZ, a semi-empirical model conceived by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and FLO-2D, a hydraulic model distributed by FLO Software Inc. LAHARZ is designed as a rapid, objective and reproducible automated method for mapping areas of potential lahar inundation (Proc. First Int. Conf. on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, San Francisco, USA, ASCE, 1998, p. 176). FLO-2D is a two-dimensional flood routing model for simulating overland flow on complex surfaces such as floodplains, alluvial fans or urbanized areas (FLO-2D Users manual, version 99.2). Both models run within geographical information systems (GIS).Fieldwork was focused on collecting all available information involved in lahar modeling. A total of 49 channel cross-sections were measured along the two main streams and stratigraphic investigations were carried out on the fans to estimate the volume of previous events. A global positioning system was utilized to determine the coordinates of each cross-section. Further data collection concerned topography, rainfall characteristics and ashfall thicknesses. All fieldwork was carried out in cooperation with the Instituto Geofisico of the Escuela Politecnica Nacional.Modeling in a GIS environment greatly aided the exportation of results for the creation of thematic maps and facilitated model comparison. Evaluation of the models was performed by comparing simulation results against each other and against the geometry of existing lahar deposits.     

Centrifuge modelling of the influence of crustal fabrics on the development of transfer zones: insights into the mechanics of continental rifting architecture

Centrifuge analogue experiments are used to model the reactivation of pre-existing crustal fabrics during extension. The models reproduced a weakness zone in the lower crust whose geometry was varied in order to investigate its role in controlling the architecture of rift segments and related transfer zones. The typical rift system geometry was characterised by two offset rift segments connected by a major transfer zone in which boundary faults were oblique to the extension vector and displayed a significant transcurrent component of movement. The transfer zone was also characterised by cross-basin faults with both trend and strike-slip component of movement opposite to that displayed by the master faults. Typically, different structural patterns were obtained by changing the offset angle φ between the rift segments, supporting that the structural pattern at transfer zones is strongly influenced by the orientation of pre-existing discontinuities with respect to the stretching vector. In the models, the aspect ratio (ratio of length vs. width) of the transfer zone shows a positive correlation with the offset angle (i.e., the more the inherited fabric is parallel to the extension direction, the longer and narrower the transfer zones). In case of staircase offset of the rift segments (φ=90°), the structural pattern was characterised by two isolated rift depressions linked by a narrow transfer zone in which border faults with alternating polarity overlapped. Prominent rise of the ductile lower crust was also observed at the transfer zone. Many of these geometrical features display striking similarities with natural rift systems. The results of the current experiments provide useful insights into the mechanics of continental rift architecture, supporting that rift propagation, width and along-axis segmentation may be strongly controlled by the reactivation of pre-existing pervasive crustal fabrics.     

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.     

Non-resonant secular dynamics of trans-Neptunian objects perturbed by a distant super-Earth

We use a secular model to describe the non-resonant dynamics of trans-Neptunian objects in the presence of an external ten-Earth-mass perturber. The secular dynamics is analogous to an “eccentric Kozai mechanism” but with both an inner component (the four giant planets) and an outer one (the eccentric distant perturber). By the means of Poincaré sections, the cases of a non-inclined or inclined outer planet are successively studied, making the connection with previous works. In the inclined case, the problem is reduced to two degrees of freedom by assuming a non-precessing argument of perihelion for the perturbing body. The size of the perturbation is typically ruled by the semi-major axis of the small body: we show that the classic integrable picture is still valid below about 70 AU, but it is progressively destroyed when we get closer to the external perturber. In particular, for \(a>150\) AU, large-amplitude orbital flips become possible, and for \(a>200\) AU, the Kozai libration islands at \(\omega =\pi /2\) and \(3\pi /2\) are totally submerged by the chaotic sea. Numerous resonance relations are highlighted. The most large and persistent ones are associated with apsidal alignments or anti-alignments with the orbit of the distant perturber.     

Study and application of the resonant secular dynamics beyond Neptune

We use a secular representation to describe the long-term dynamics of transneptunian objects in mean-motion resonance with Neptune. The model applied is thoroughly described in Saillenfest et al. (Celest Mech Dyn Astron, doi: 10.1007/s10569-016-9700-5, 2016). The parameter space is systematically explored, showing that the secular trajectories depend little on the resonance order. High-amplitude oscillations of the perihelion distance are reported and localised in the space of the orbital parameters. In particular, we show that a large perihelion distance is not a sufficient criterion to declare that an object is detached from the planets. Such a mechanism, though, is found unable to explain the orbits of Sedna or \(2012\text {VP}_{113}\), which are insufficiently inclined (considering their high perihelion distance) to be possibly driven by such a resonant dynamics. The secular representation highlights the existence of a high-perihelion accumulation zone due to resonances of type 1:k with Neptune. That region is found to be located roughly at \(a\in [100;300]\) AU, \(q\in [50;70]\) AU and \(I\in [30;50]^{\circ }\). In addition to the flux of objects directly coming from the Scattered Disc, numerical simulations show that the Oort Cloud is also a substantial source for such objects. Naturally, as that mechanism relies on fragile captures in high-order resonances, our conclusions break down in the case of a significant external perturber. The detection of such a reservoir could thus be an observational constraint to probe the external Solar System.     

Underwater autonomous manipulation for intervention missions AUVs

Many underwater intervention tasks are today performed using manned submersibles or remotely operated vehicles in teleoperation mode. Autonomous underwater vehicles are mostly employed in survey applications. In fact, the low bandwidth and significant time delay inherent in acoustic subsea communications represent a considerable obstacle to remotely operate a manipulation system, making it impossible for remote controllers to react to problems in a timely manner.Nevertheless, vehicles with no physical link and with no human occupants permit intervention in dangerous areas, such as in deep ocean, under ice, in missions to retrieve hazardous objects, or in classified areas. The key element in underwater intervention performed with autonomous vehicles is autonomous manipulation. This is a challenging technology milestone, which refers to the capability of a robot system that performs intervention tasks requiring physical contacts with unstructured environments without continuous human supervision.Today, only few AUVs are equipped with manipulators. SAUVIM (Semi Autonomous Underwater Vehicle for Intervention Mission, University of Hawaii) is one of the first underwater vehicle capable of autonomous manipulation.This paper presents the solutions chosen within the development of the system in order to address the problems intrinsic to autonomous underwater manipulation. In the proposed approach, the most noticeable aspect is the increase in the level of information transferred between the system and the human supervisor.We describe one of the first trials of autonomous intervention performed by SAUVIM in the oceanic environment. To the best knowledge of the authors, no sea trials in underwater autonomous manipulation have been presented in the literature. The presented operation is an underwater recovery mission, which consists in a sequence of autonomous tasks finalized to search for the target and to securely hook a cable to it in order to bring the target to the surface.     

Magma chambers and localization of deformation during thrusting

Terra Nova, 22, 390–395, 2010 Abstract We present the results of coupled analogue and numerical models that provide new insights into the relationships between volcanoes and thrusts. The effects of both upper‐crustal magma chambers and the load of volcanoes on the geometry of thrust systems were investigated. Analogue modelling points to a strong influence exerted by a magma chamber on thrust geometry, which, as suggested by the numerical models used to rationalize these results, is related to the stress redistribution around the weak heterogeneity. The low‐viscosity body below a volcanic edifice localizes compressional deformation and causes a curvature of the thrusts towards the magma chamber, opposite to the direction of tectonic transport. In these conditions, the volcanic load has a negligible effect on the structural geometry. These results are in contrast with those of previous studies, where intrusions or the load of major volcanoes generated a curvature of the thrusts away from volcanic edifices in the direction of tectonic transport.