Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.     

Mitigation of lunar dust adhesion by surface modification

Dust has been recognized as one of the greatest hazards in continued lunar exploration due to its tenacious adhesion to everything with which it comes into contact. Unfortunately, there is little known about the mechanisms of adhesion on widely varying surface types: van der Waals and electrostatic forces are the dominant forces under consideration here. Surface energy, roughness, mechanical properties and electronic properties are all known to contribute to the adhesion characteristics. An optimal solution to mitigate dust adhesion would be to identify the dominant components of the adhesive force and to reduce that force by surface modification. In this study, an ion beam process was used to modify (treat) the surfaces of three dramatically different materials spanning the range of conductor (black Kapton), semiconductor (silicon), and insulator (quartz). Adhesive forces between less than JSC-1 lunar simulants and these virgin/treated surfaces were measured in vacuum using a centrifugal force detachment method. We found that JSC-1 particles adhered less to treated silicon and quartz surfaces, correlated with a reduction in van der Waals force due to a reduced surface energy. The large reduction in adhesion for treated black Kapton is mainly due to the large decrease in the electrostatic (image) force that results from reduced contact charging. Materials in space and on the lunar surface will be directly exposed to high-energy ultraviolet radiation prior to being covered by dust, so the UV irradiation effects on surface adhesion were also examined. Both virgin and treated quartz surfaces are most affected by the UV-irradiation, showing dramatically increased adhesion.     

A study of the depth of weathering and its relationship to the mechanical properties of near-surface rocks in the Mojave Desert

Weathered granite extends 70 m deep at Hi Vista in the arid central Mojave Desert of southern California. The low strength of this granite is due to the alteration of biotite and chlorite montmorillonite. Deep weathering probably occurs in most granites, although we cannot rule out some anomalous mechanisms at Hi Vista. Geophysical instruments set in these slightly altered rocks are limited by the unstable behavior of the rocks. Thus, tectonic signals from instruments placed in shallow boreholes give vague results. Geophysical measurements of these weathered rocks resemble measurements of granitic rocks near major faults. The rheology of the rocks in which instruments are placed limits the useful sensitivity of the instruments.     

Tropical cooling and the isotopic composition of precipitation in general circulation model simulations of the ice age climate

 We test the climate effects of changes in the tropical ocean by imposing three different patterns of tropical SSTs in ice age general circulation model simulations that include water source tracers and water isotope tracers. The continental air temperature and hydrological cycle response in these simulations is substantial and should be directly comparable to the paleoclimatic record. With tropical cooling imposed, there is a strong temperature response in mid- to high-latitudes resulting from changes in sea ice and disturbance of the planetary waves; the results suggest that tropical/subtropical ocean cooling leads to significant dynamical and radiative feedbacks that might amplify ice age cycles. The isotopes in precipitation generally follow the temperature response at higher latitudes, but regional δ¹⁸O/air temperature scaling factors differ greatly among the experiments. In low-latitudes, continental surface temperatures decrease congruently with the adjacent SSTs in the cooling experiments. Assuming CLIMAP SSTs, ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios in low-latitude precipitation show no change from modern values. However, the experiments with additional cooling of SSTs produce much lower tropical continental δ¹⁸O values, and these low values result primarily from an enhanced recycling of continental moisture (as marine evaporation is reduced). The water isotopes are especially sensitive to continental aridity, suggesting that they represent an effective tracer of the extent of tropical cooling and drying. Only one of the tropical cooling simulations produces generalized low-latitude aridity. These results demonstrate that the geographic pattern of cooling is most critical for promoting much drier continents, and they underscore the need for accurate reconstructions of SST gradients in the ice age ocean. Received: 26 July 1999 / Accepted: 10 July 2000     

Structure of the crust in the conterminous United States

On the basis of the newest interpretations of all sufficiently long seismic profiles, a contour map of the Mohorovi?i? discontinuity for the conterminous United States is compiled. Differences from earlier interpretations are discussed.     

Activation of zinc sulphide with CuII,CdII and PbII: I. Activation in weakly acidic media

During the activation of zinc sulphide with the heavy metal ions Cu^II, Cd^II and Pb^II, metal-ion uptake follows a logarithmic dependence on time. A reaction mechanism is proposed which is consistent with experimental observations. Incident radiation has a strong influence on the activation reaction, an effect which is interpreted in terms of semiconductor theory.     

Activation of zinc sulphide with CuII,CdII and PbII: III. The mass-spectrometric determination of elemental sulphur

A new mass-spectrometric technique, capable of the quantitative detection of very low levels of elemental sulphur on sulphide mineral surfaces has been developed. It is shown that elemental sulphur is formed, under certain conditions, on zinc sulphide surfaces activated by Cu^II, Cd^II and Pb^II. The findings are interpreted in terms of semiconductor theory.