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排序方式: 共有64条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961–1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071–2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. 相似文献
2.
Almroth BC Sturve J Stephensen E Holth TF Förlin L 《Marine environmental research》2008,66(2):271-277
The use of fish in environmental monitoring has become increasingly important in recent years as anthropogenic substances, many of which function as prooxidants, are accumulating in aquatic environments. We have measured a battery of antioxidant defenses as a measure of oxidative status, as well as protein carbonylation as a measure of oxidative damage, in corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) captured near a disused copper mine, where water and sediment are contaminated with heavy metals, and an aluminum smelter, a site contaminated with PAHs. Results were compared to two different reference sites. Fish at the heavy metal site had lower glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity and elevated protein carbonyls (1.8 times) compared to fish from the reference site. At the PAH site, EROD was increased 2-fold, while total glutathione and methemoglobin reductase concentration, were decreased. No differences were seen in protein carbonyl levels at the PAH site. Measures of both antioxidant defenses and oxidative damage should be used when assessing effects of xenobiotics on oxidative stress in fish species. 相似文献
3.
Jaume Llopart Roger Urgeles Carl Fredrik Forsberg Angelo Camerlenghi Maarten Vanneste Michele Rebesco Renata Giulia Lucchi Denise Christina Rüther Hendrik Lantzsch 《Basin Research》2019,31(3):487-513
Using a combination of geophysical and geotechnical data from Storfjorden Trough Mouth Fan off southern Svalbard, we investigate the hydrogeology of the continental margin and how this is affected by Quaternary glacial advances and retreats over the continental shelf. The geotechnical results show that plumites, deposited during the deglaciation, have high porosities, permeabilities and compressibilities with respect to glacigenic debris flows and tills. These results together with margin stratigraphic models obtained from seismic reflection data were used as input for numerical finite element models to understand focusing of interstitial fluids on glaciated continental margins. The modelled evolution of the Storfjorden TMF shows that tills formed on the shelf following the onset of glacial sedimentation (ca. 1.5 Ma) acted as aquitards and therefore played a significant role in decreasing the vertical fluid flow towards the sea floor and diverting it towards the slope. The model shows that high overpressure ratios (up to λ ca. 0.6) developed below the shelf edge and on the middle slope. A more detailed model for the last 220 kyrs accounting for ice loading during glacial maxima shows that the formation of these aquitards on the shelf focused fluid flow towards the most permeable plumite sediments on the slope. The less permeable glacigenic debris flows that were deposited during glacial maxima on the slope hinder fluid evacuation from plumites allowing high overpressure ratios (up to λ ca. 0.7) to develop in the shallowest plumite layers. These high overpressures likely persist to the Present and are a critical precondition for submarine slope failure. 相似文献
4.
5.
A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Feng?Shi Quansheng?GeEmail author Bao?Yang Jianping?Li Fengmei?Yang Fredrik?Charpentier?Ljungqvist Olga?Solomina Takeshi?Nakatsuka Ninglian?Wang Sen?Zhao Chenxi?Xu Keyan?Fang Masaki?Sano Guoqiang?Chu Zexin?Fan Narayan?P.?Gaire Muhammad?Usama?Zafar 《Climatic change》2015,131(4):663-676
To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400. 相似文献
6.
7.
Stochastic Structural Modeling 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Lars Holden Petter Mostad Bjørn Fredrik Nielsen Jon Gjerde Chris Townsend Signe Ottesen 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(8):899-914
A consistent stochastic model for faults and horizons is described. The faults are represented as a parametric invertible deformation operator. The faults may truncate each other. The horizons are modeled as correlated Gaussian fields and are represented in a grid. Petrophysical variables may be modeled in a reservoir before faulting in order to describe the juxtaposition effect of the faulting. It is possible to condition the realization on petrophysics, horizons, and fault plane observations in wells in addition to seismic data. The transmissibility in the fault plane may also be included in the model. Four different methods to integrate the fault and horizon models in a common model is described. The method is illustrated on an example from a real petroleum field with 18 interpreted faults that are handled stochastically. 相似文献
8.
Paula Lindgren Lydia Hallis Fredrik S. Hage Martin R. Lee John Parnell Anders Plan Alistair Doye Ian MacLaren 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(11):2698-2709
A carbon‐rich melt fragment from the Gardnos impact structure has been studied for a better understanding of the preservation and structural form(s) of carbon that have been processed by impact melting. The carbon was analyzed in situ in its original petrographic context within the melt fragment, using high‐resolution techniques including focused ion beam‐transmission electron microscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy. Results show that the carbon is largely uniform and has a nanocrystalline grain size. The Gardnos carbon has a graphitic structure but with a large c/a ratio indicating disorder. The disorder could be a result of rapid heating to high temperatures during impact, followed by rapid cooling, with not enough time to crystallize into highly ordered graphite. However, temperature distribution during impact is extremely heterogenous, and the disordered Gardnos carbon could also represent material that avoided extreme temperatures, and thus, it was preserved. Understanding the structure of carbon during terrestrial impacts is important to help determine if the history of carbon within extraterrestrial samples is impact related. Furthermore, the degree of preservation of carbon during impact is key for locating and detecting organic compounds in extraterrestrial samples. This example from Gardnos, together with previous studies, shows that not all carbon is lost to oxidation during impact but that impact melting can encapsulate and preserve carbon where it is available. 相似文献
9.
Variationally consistent homogenization is exploited for the analysis of transient uncoupled consolidation in micro‐heterogeneous porous solids, whereby the classical approach of first‐order homogenization for stationary problems is extended to transient problems. Homogenization is then carried out in the spatial domain on representative volume elements (RVE), which are introduced in quadrature points in standard fashion. Along with the classical averages, a higher‐order conservation quantity is obtained. An iterative FE2‐algorithm is devised for the case of nonlinear permeability and storage coefficients, and it is applied to pore pressure changes in asphalt‐concrete (particle composite). Various parametric studies are carried out, in particular, with respect to the influence of the ‘substructure length scale’ that is represented by the size of the RVE's. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2 °C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO2-equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO2eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO2eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO2eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3–5 Gton CO2eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2 °C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO2eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2 °C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place. 相似文献