Methodology for the computation of volcanic susceptibility: An example for mafic and felsic eruptions on Tenerife (Canary Islands)

A new method to calculate volcanic susceptibility, i.e. the spatial probability of vent opening, is presented. Determination of volcanic susceptibility should constitute the first step in the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps of active volcanic fields. Our method considers different criteria as possible indicators for the location of future vents, based on the assumption that these locations should correspond to the surface expressions of the most likely pathways for magma ascent. Thus, two groups of criteria have been considered depending on the time scale (short or long term) of our approach. The first one accounts for long-term hazard assessment and corresponds to structural criteria that provide direct information on the internal structure of the volcanic field, including its past and present stress field, location of structural lineations (fractures and dikes), and location of past eruptions. The second group of criteria concerns to the computation of susceptibility for short term analyses (from days to a few months) during unrest episodes, and includes those structural and dynamical aspects that can be inferred from volcano monitoring. Thus, a specific layer of information is obtained for each of the criteria used. The specific weight of each criterion on the overall analysis depends on its relative significance to indicate pathways for magma ascent, on the quality of data and on their degree of confidence. The combination of the different data layers allows to create a map of the spatial probability of future eruptions based on objective criteria, thus constituting the first step to obtain the corresponding volcanic hazards map. The method has been used to calculate long-term volcanic susceptibility on Tenerife (Canary Islands), and the results obtained are also presented.     

A GIS-based methodology for hazard mapping of small volume pyroclastic density currents

We present here a methodology implemented within a geographical information system (GIS) for hazard mapping of small volume pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). This technique is implemented as a set of macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) that run within GIS-software (i.e. ArcGIS). Based on the energy line concept, we calibrated an equation that relates the volume (V) and the mobility (ΔH/L) of single PDCs using data from Soufrière Hills volcano (Montserrat) and Arenal volcano (Costa Rica). Maximum potential run-outs can be predicted with an associated uncertainty of about 30%. Also based on the energy line concept and with data from Soufrière Hills volcano and Mt. St. Helens (USA), we were able to calibrate an equation that predicts the flow velocity as a function of the vertical distance between the energy line and the ground surface (Δh). Velocities derived in this way have an associated uncertainty of 3 m s⁻¹. We wrote code to implement these equations and allow the automatic mapping of run-out and velocity with the inputs being (i) the height and location of the vent (ii) the flow volume and (iii) a digital elevation model (DEM) of the volcano. Dynamic pressure can also be estimated and mapped by incorporating the density of the pyroclastic density current (PDC). This computer application allows the incorporation of uncertainties in the location of the vent and of statistical uncertainties expressed by the 95% confidence limits of the regression model. We were able to verify predictions by the proposed methodology with data from Unzen volcano (Japan) and Mayon volcano (The Philippines). The consistencies observed highlight the applicability of this approach for hazard mitigation and real-time emergency management.     

Zonation of the main volcanic hazards (lava flows and ash fall) in Tenerife, Canary Islands. A proposal for a surveillance network

The island of Tenerife is volcanically complex, and its eruptive history predominantly reflects the processes and products of two different eruptive styles: (1) non-explosive effusions of basaltic lavas from fissure vents mostly aligned along two ridges; and (2) less frequent but explosive salic eruptions from central vents associated with the Las Cañadas volcanic edifice and associated summit caldera. We have taken into account this fundamental distinction to develop a volcanic-hazards zonation (for lava flows and ash fall only) that includes: definition of the principal hazards; identification of the areas that have higher probability of containing emission centres; and numerical modelling of the vulnerable areas to be affected by volcanic hazards. Not only does the volcanic-hazards zonation map provide emergency-management officials with an updated assessment of the volcanic hazards, but it also represents a starting point for the preparation of a volcanic risk map for Tenerife. Finally, the hazards-zonation map also furnishes the basis for the design of a proposed volcano surveillance network.     

Eruptive scenarios of phonolitic volcanism at Teide–Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

Recent studies on Teide–Pico Viejo (TPV) complex have revealed that explosive activity of phonolitic and basaltic magmas, including plinian and subplinian eruptions, and the generation of a wide range of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) have also been significant. We perform a statistical analysis of the time series of past eruptions and the spatial extent of their erupted products, including lava flows, fallout and PDCs. We use an extreme value theory statistical method to calculate eruption recurrence. The analysis of past activity and extent of some well-identified deposits is used to calculate the eruption recurrence probabilities of various sizes and for different time periods. With this information, we compute several significant scenarios using the GIS-based VORIS 2 software (Felpeto et al., J Volcanol Geotherm Res 166:106–116, 2007) in order to evaluate the potential extent of the main eruption hazards that could be expected from TPV. The simulated hazard scenarios show that the southern flank of Tenerife is protected by Las Cañadas caldera wall against lava flows and pyroclastic density currents, but not against ash fallout. The Icod Valley, and to a minor extent also the La Orotava valley, is directly exposed to most of TPV hazards, in particular to the gravity driven flows. This study represents a step forward in the evaluation of volcanic hazard at TPV with regard to previous studies, and the results obtained should be useful for intermediate and long-term land-use and emergency planning.     

Estimating building exposure and impact to volcanic hazards in Icod de los Vinos,Tenerife (Canary Islands)

Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).     

Automatic GIS-based system for volcanic hazard assessment

This paper presents an automatic system for the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps and scenarios. The methodology used for the generation of both maps is based on the use of numerical simulation of eruptive processes. The system has been developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework, where models for the numerical simulation of different volcanic hazards have been integrated. The user can select in a toolbar one hazard and then decide whether to generate a scenario map (usually with a unique vent) or a hazard map (generally with a broader source area). Once the input parameters are selected, the system automatically generates the corresponding map. The system also incorporates a module to determine the spatial probability of vent opening, as this could be an important parameter for the computation of hazard maps. The tool has been designed in such a way that the inclusion of new numerical models and functionalities is rather easy. Each numerical model is programmed and implemented as an independent program that is launched from the system and, when it finishes the computation, returns the control to the GIS, where the results are shown. This structure allows that further analyses (specifically, risk analyses, that use as an input a hazard or a scenario map), could be also automated inside the system. Additional information, including tutorial and downloadable files can be found in www.gvb-csic.es.     

Assessment and Modelling of Lava Flow Hazard on Lanzarote (Canary Islands)

This paper presents an evaluation of the lava flowhazard on Lanzarote (Canary Islands) by means of aprobabilistic maximum slope model. This model assumesthat the topography plays the major role indetermining the path that a lava flow will follow. Thearea selected for containing future emission centreshas been chosen taking into account thecharacteristics of the recent eruptive activity andthe present activity of the island. The results of thesimulations constitute hazard maps whose values ateach point represent the probability of being coveredby lava. These results are qualitatively analysed toprovide some indication of the risk to the lifelines(electricity, drinking water etc.) of the island.     

A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

We propose a long-term volcanic hazards event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two complex alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8–3 km³ of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka. This is the maximum period that can be investigated from surface geology and also represents an upper time limit for the appearance of the first phonolites on that volcano. The whole process of the event tree construction was divided into three stages. The first stage included the determination of the spatial probability of vent opening for basaltic and phonolitic eruptions, based on the available geological and geophysical data. The second, involved the analysis of the different eruption types that have characterised the volcanic activity from Teide during this period. The third stage focussed on the generation of the event tree from the information obtained in the two previous steps and from the application of a probabilistic analysis on the occurrence of each possible eruption type. As for other volcanoes, the structure of the Teide-Pico Viejo Event Tree was subdivided into several steps of eruptive progression from general to more specific events. The precursory phase was assumed as an unrest episode of any geologic origin (magmatic, hydrothermal or tectonic), which could be responsible for a clear increase of volcanic activity revealed by geophysical and geochemical monitoring. According to the present characteristics of Teide-Pico Viejo and their past history, we started by considering whether the unrest episode would lead to a sector collapse or not. If the sector collapse does not occur but an eruption is expected, this could be either from the central vents or from any of the volcanoes' flanks. In any of these cases, there are several possibilities according to what has been observed in the period considered in our study. In the case that a sector collapse occurs and is followed by an eruption we considered it as a flank eruption. We conducted an experts elicitation judgement to assign probabilities to the different possibilities indicated in the event tree. We assumed long term estimations based on existing geological and historical data for the last 35 Ka, which gave us a minimum estimate as the geological record for such a long period is incomplete. However, to estimate probabilities for a short term forecast, for example during an unrest episode, we would need to include in the event tree additional information from the monitoring networks, as any possible precursors that may be identified could tell us in which direction the system will evolve. Therefore, we propose to develop future versions of the event tree to include also the precursors that might be expected on each path during the initial stages of a new eruptive event.     

Internal structure of Tenerife (Canary Islands) based on gravity, aeromagnetic and volcanological data

Gravity and magnetic methods have been applied to the Tenerife Island, to provide new information about its internal structure. For this study, 365 gravity stations covering the central part of the island have been selected. The anomalous density maps at different depths were obtained by means of an inversion global adjustment, on fixed density contrast, to describe the three-dimensional (3D) geometry of the anomalous bodies. On the other hand, several analysis techniques, such as reduction to the pole, spectral analysis, low-pass filtering, terrain correction and forward modelling, were applied to process the high-resolution data obtained in an aeromagnetic survey, completed with marine and terrestrial data.The joint analysis of gravity and magnetic anomalies has shown tectonic and volcanic features that define some fundamental aspects of the structural framework and volcanic evolution of the island. A strong gravity anomaly produced by a large and deep source has been associated with an uplifted block of the basement beneath the southern part of Tenerife. The sources of the observed gravity highs from 8 km b.s.l. may be associated with the growth of the submarine shield stage that was clearly controlled by regional tectonic.The long-wavelength magnetic anomalies reveal highly magnetic sources, interpreted as gabbro-ultramafic cumulates associated with the root zone of a large dyke swarm. This intrusive body could be topped by the emplacement zone of magma chambers that correlate with a magnetic horizon at 5.7±0.8 km depth. Rooted in this highly magnetic zone, two dike–like structures can be associated with the magmatic feeding system of large recent basaltic volcanoes. A shallow magnetic horizon (1.4 km a.s.l.) can be correlated with the bottom phonolites of the Las Cañadas Edifice.In the central part of the island the coincidence of some gravity and magnetic lows is consistent with the presence of low-density and low-magnetic materials, that infill a collapsed caldera system. The structures close to the surface are characterised by low-density areas connected with the recent volcanism, in particular the minimum over the Teide volcano. Hydrothermal alteration is assumed to be the cause of a short-wavelength magnetic low over the Teide volcano.