Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

GIS and Volcanic Risk Management

Volcanic catastrophes constitute a majorproblem in many developing and developed countries. Inrecent years population growth and the expansion ofsettlements and basic supply lines (e.g., water, gas,etc.) have greatly increased the impact of volcanicdisasters. Correct land-use planning is fundamental inminimising both loss of life and damage to property.In this contribution Geographical Information Systems(GIS), linked with remote sensing technology andtelecommunications/warning systems, have emerged asone of the most promising tools to support thedecision-making process. Some GIS are presented fortwo volcanic areas in Italy, Mt. Etna and Vesuvius.GIS role in risk management is then discussed, keepingin mind the different volcanic scenarios of effusiveand explosive phenomena. Mt. Etna system covers alarge area (more than 1,000 km²) potentiallyaffected by effusive phenomena (lava flows) whichcause damage to both houses and properties in general.No risk to life is expected. The time-scales of lavaflows allow, at least in principle, modification ofthe lava path by the building of artificial barriers.Vesuvius shows typically an explosive behaviour. Inthe case of a medium size explosive eruption, 600,000people would potentially have to be evacuated from anarea of about 200 km² around the Volcano, sincethey are exposed to ruinous, very fast phenomena likepyroclastic surges and flows, lahars, ash fallout,etc. Ash fallout and floods/lahars are also expectedin distal areas, between Vesuvius and Avellino,downwind of the volcano. GIS include digital elevationmodels, satellite images, volcanic hazard maps andvector data on natural and artificial features (energysupply lines, strategic buildings, roads, railways,etc.). The nature and the level of detail in the twodata bases are different, on the basis of thedifferent expected volcanic phenomena. The GIS havebeen planned: (a) for volcanic risk mitigation (hazard,value, vulnerability and risk map assessing), (b) toprovide suitable tools during an impending crisis, (c)to provide a basis for emergency plans.     

The DEM or Mt. Etna: geomorphological and structural implications

Abstract

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Mt. Etna is presented; it has altimetric and planimetric resolution of 1 m and 5 m, respectively, and covers an area of about 120 km . This 3-D view of Mt. Etna allowed both recognition and location of the main morphostructural and volcano-tectonic features of the volcano. A slope map has been generated from the DEM; on the basis of slope distributions and surface textures, five acclivity domains have been recognized. The largest domain, south of the summit craters, reflects the occurrence of old plateau lavas, distinct from central volcanoes which built the present Etnean volcanic system. Interaction between the central volcanoes, with their summit calderas and failed slopes, produced the other recognised domains. Furthermore, newly identified relevant morphostructural lines are discussed. © Elsevier, Paris     

Lava flow hazard and risk at Mt. Cameroon volcano

Mt. Cameroon is one of the most active effusive volcanoes in Africa. About 500,000 people living or working around its fertile flanks are subject to significant threat from lava flow inundation. Lava flow hazard and risk were assessed by simulating probable lava flow paths using the DOWNFLOW code. The vent opening probability density function and lava flow length distribution were determined on the basis of available data from past eruptions at Mt. Cameroon volcano. Code calibration was performed through comparison with real lava flow paths. The topographic basis for simulations was the 90-m resolution SRTM DEM. Simulated lava flows from about 80,000 possible vents were used to produce a detailed lava flow hazard map. The lava flow risk in the area was mapped by combining the hazard map with digitized infrastructures (i.e., human settlements and roads). Results show that the risk of lava flow inundation is greatest in the most inhabited coastal areas comprising the town of Limbe, which constitutes the center of Cameroon’s oil industry and an important commercial port. Buea, the second most important town in the area, has a much lower risk although it is significantly closer to the summit of the volcano. Non-negligible risk characterizes many villages and most roads in the area surrounding the volcano. In addition to the conventional risk mapping described above, we also present (1) two reversed risk maps (one for buildings and one for roads), where each point on the volcano is classified according to the total damage expected as a consequence of vent opening at that point; (2) maps of the lava catchments for the two main towns of Limbe and Buea, illustrating the expected damage upon venting at any point in the catchment basin. The hazard and risk maps provided here represent valuable tools for both medium/long-term land-use planning and real-time volcanic risk management and decision making.     

Hazard assessment at Mount Etna using a hybrid lava flow inundation model and satellite-based land classification

Using a lava flow emplacement model and a satellite-based land cover classification, we produce a map to allow assessment of the type and quantity of natural, agricultural and urban land cover at risk from lava flow invasion. The first step is to produce lava effusion rate contours, i.e., lines linking distances down a volcano??s flank that a lava flow will likely extend if fed at a given effusion rate from a predetermined vent zone. This involves first identifying a vent mask and then running a downhill flow path model from the edge of every pixel around the vent mask perimeter to the edge of the DEM. To do this, we run a stochastic model whereby the flow path is projected 1,000 times from every pixel around the vent mask perimeter with random noise being added to the DEM with each run so that a slightly different flow path is generated with each run. The FLOWGO lava flow model is then run down each path, at a series of effusion rates, to determine likely run-out distance for channel-fed flow extending down each path. These results are used to plot effusion rate contours. Finally, effusion rate contours are projected onto a land classification map (produced from an ASTER image of Etna) to assess the type and amount of each land cover class falling within each contour. The resulting maps are designed to provide a quick look-up capability to assess the type of land at risk from lava extending from any location at a range of likely effusion rates. For our first (2,000 m) vent zone case used for Etna, we find a total of area of ~680 km² is at risk from flows fed at 40 m³ s^?1, of which ~6 km² is urban, ~150 km² is agriculture and ~270 km² is grass/woodland. The model can also be run for specific cases, where we find that Etna??s 1669 vent location, if active today, would likely inundate almost 11 km² of urban land, as well as 15.6 km² of agricultural land, including 9.5 km² of olive groves and 5.2 km² of vineyards and fruit/nut orchards.     

Changes of the susceptibility to lava flow invasion induced by morphological modifications of an active volcano: the case of Mount Etna,Italy

Changes of the susceptibility to lava flow invasion at Mount Etna are quantified by using lava flow simulations on four Digital Elevation Models documenting the morphostructural modifications of the volcano in the time interval 1986–2007. The probabilistic code DOWNFLOW is used to derive the areas invaded by several thousands of lava flows obtaining, for each DEM, maps of the susceptibility to lava flow invasion and of the lava flow hazard. These maps show, for the first time, the evolution of these surficial properties with time, and render a quantitative image of the effects of topographic changes on the preferential lava flow drainage paths. The results illustrate how the emplacement of new lava flows and the growth of scoria cones affect the probability of inundation by lava flows. We conclude that the persistent activity of this volcano requires a frequent updating of the topography for a reliable lava flow hazard assessment.     

LIDAR strip adjustment: Application to volcanic areas

DEMs derived from LIDAR data are nowadays largely used for quantitative analyses and modelling in geology and geomorphology. High-quality DEMs are required for the accurate morphometric and volumetric measurement of land features. We propose a rigorous automatic algorithm for correcting systematic errors in LIDAR data in order to assess sub-metric variations in surface morphology over wide areas, such as those associated with landslide, slump, and volcanic deposits. Our procedure does not require a priori knowledge of the surface, such as the presence of known ground control points. Systematic errors are detected on the basis of distortions in the areas of overlap among different strips. Discrepancies between overlapping strips are assessed at a number of chosen computational tie points. At each tie point a local surface is constructed for each strip containing the point. Displacements between different strips are then calculated at each tie point, and minimization of these discrepancies allows the identification of major systematic errors. These errors are identified as a function of the variables that describe the data acquisition system. Significant errors mainly caused by a non-constant misestimation of the roll angle are highlighted and corrected. Comparison of DEMs constructed using first uncorrected and then corrected LIDAR data from different Mt. Etna surveys shows a meaningful improvement in quality: most of the systematic errors are removed and the accuracy of morphometric and volumetric measurements of volcanic features increases. These corrections are particularly important for the following studies of Mt. Etna: calculation of lava flow volume; calculation of erosion and deposition volume of pyroclastic cones; mapping of areas newly covered by volcanic ash; and morphological evolution of a portion of an active lava field over a short time span.