A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

Long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting: efficiency of linear modelling technique

Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91.     

Investigating the hydrogeological properties of springs in a karstic aquifer in Dorfak region (Guilan Province,Iran)

Karstic aquifers are considered as the main sources of groundwater in the northeast of Rudbar, Iran. The present study was conducted to evaluate the hydrogeological properties of karstic springs in this region. For this purpose, saturation indices (SI values) were calculated using the geochemical PHREEQC model for a number of minerals in the groundwater in the karstic aquifer. Moreover, AqQA-RockWare software packages were used to prepare hydrogeochemical plots for the aquifer, using which the sources of the ions in the water were identified. The origin of bicarbonate, calcium, and magnesium ions in water was determined using chloro-alkaline indices. Moreover, through plotting a Piper diagram for spring water samples, it was discovered that water type of all springs is the Ca-HCO₃ type, confirming the karstic characteristic of springs in the area. A Durov diagram also suggests that the water composition of the springs is of the bicarbonate type with the dominant Ca cation, suggesting the calcareous effects of the region on the quality of groundwater and exhibiting a single source for the springs. The calculated saturation indices show that most of the water samples are undersaturated with respect to calcite, dolomite, and CO₂. The stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) and deuterium excess values were used to get information about transport pathways in groundwater, atmospheric moisture, and the degree of interaction between these reservoirs. The degree of karstification of the recharge area of the karst aquifer was determined to be 5.5 from an analysis of the hydrograph Sefidab Spring.     

Chemical composition of rock-forming minerals and crystallization physicochemical conditions of the Middle Eocene I-type Haji Abad pluton,SW Buin-Zahra,Iran

The Haji Abad intrusion is a well-exposed Middle Eocene I-type granodioritc pluton in the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic assemblage (UDMA). The major constituents of the investigated rocks are K-feldspar, quartz, plagioclase, pyroxene, and minor Fe–Ti oxide and hornblende. The plagioclase compositions fall in the labradorite, andesine, and oligoclase fields. The amphiboles range in composition from magnesio-hornblende to tremolite–hornblende of the calcic-amphibole group. Most pyroxenes principally plot in the field of diopside. The calculated average pressure of emplacement is 1.9 kbar for the granodioritic rocks, crystallizing at depths of about 6.7 km. The highest pressure estimated from clinopyroxene geobarometry (5 kbar) reflects initial pyroxene crystallization pressure, indicating initial crystallization depth (17.5 km) in the Haji Abad granodiorite. The estimated temperatures using two-feldspar thermometry give an average 724 °C. The calculated average temperature for clinopyroxene crystallization is 1090 °C. The pyroxene temperatures are higher than the estimated temperature by feldspar thermometry, indicating that the pyroxene and feldspar temperatures represent the first and late stages of magmatic crystallization of Haji Abad granodiorite, respectively. Most pyroxenes plot above the line of Fe³⁺?=?0, indicating they crystallized under relatively high oxygen fugacity or oxidized conditions. Furthermore, the results show that the Middle Eocene granitoids crystallized from magmas with H₂O content about 3.2 wt%. The relatively high water content is consistent with the generation environment of HAG rocks in an active continental margin and has allowed the magma to reach shallower crustal levels. The MMEs with ellipsoidal and spherical shapes show igneous microgranular textures and chilled margins, probably indicating the presence of magma mixing. Besides, core to rim compositional oscillations (An and FeO) for the plagioclase crystals serve as robust evidence to support magma mixing. The studied amphiboles and pyroxenes are grouped in the subalkaline fields that are consistent with crystallization from I-type calc-alkaine magma in the subduction environment related to active continental margin. Mineral chemistry data indicate that Haji Abad granodiorites were generated in an orogenic belt related to the volcanic arc setting consistent with the subduction of Neo-Tethyan oceanic crust beneath the central Iranian microcontinent.     

In situ LA-ICPMS Isotopic and Geochronological Studies on Carbonatites and Phoscorites from the Guli Massif,Maymecha-Kotuy,Polar Siberia

In this study we present a fresh isotopic data, as well as U–Pb ages from different REE-minerals in carbonatites and phoscorites of Guli massif using in situ LA-ICPMS technique. The analyses were conducted on apatites and perovskites from calcio-carbonatite and phoscorite units, as well as on pyrochlores and baddeleyites from the carbonatites. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios obtained from apatites and perovskites from the phoscorites are 0.70308–0.70314 and 0.70306–0.70313, respectively; and 0.70310–0.70325 and 0.70314–0.70327, for the pyrochlores and apatites from the carbonatites, respectively.Furthermore, the in situ laser ablation analyses of apatites and perovskites from the phoscorite yield εNd from 3.6 (±1) to 5.1 (±0.5) and from 3.8 (±0.5) to 4.9 (±0.5), respectively; εNd of apatites, perovskites and pyrochlores from carbonatite ranges from 3.2 (±0.7) to 4.9 (±0.9), 3.9 (±0.6) to 4.5 (±0.8) and 3.2 (±0.4) to 4.4 (±0.8), respectively. Laser ablation analyses of baddeleyites yielded an eHf(t)d of +8.5 (± 0.18); prior to this study Hf isotopic characteristic of Guli massif was not known. Our new in situ εNd, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and eHf data on minerals in the Guli carbonatites imply a depleted source with a long time integrated high Lu/Hf, Sm/Nd, Sr/Rb ratios.In situ U–Pb age determination was performed on perovskites from the carbonatites and phoscorites and also on pyrochlores and baddeleyites from carbonatites. The co-existing pyrochlores, perovskites and baddeleyites in carbonatites yielded ages of 252.3 ± 1.9, 252.5 ± 1.5 and 250.8 ± 1.4 Ma, respectively. The perovskites from the phoscorites yielded an age of 253.8 ± 1.9 Ma. The obtained age for Guli carbonatites and phoscorites lies within the range of ages previously reported for the Siberian Flood Basalts and suggest essentially synchronous emplacement with the Permian-Triassic boundary.     

Flash flood susceptibility mapping using a novel deep learning model based on deep belief network,back propagation and genetic algorithm

Flash floods are responsible for loss of life and considerable property damage in many countries.Flood susceptibility maps contribute to flood risk reduction in areas that are prone to this hazard if appropriately used by landuse planners and emergency managers.The main objective of this study is to prepare an accurate flood susceptibility map for the Haraz watershed in Iran using a novel modeling approach(DBPGA) based on Deep Belief Network(DBN) with Back Propagation(BP) algorithm optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA).For this task, a database comprising ten conditioning factors and 194 flood locations was created using the One-R Attribute Evaluation(ORAE) technique.Various well-known machine learning and optimization algorithms were used as benchmarks to compare the prediction accuracy of the proposed model.Statistical metrics include sensitivity,specificity accuracy, root mean square error(RMSE), and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve(AUC) were used to assess the validity of the proposed model.The result shows that the proposed model has the highest goodness-of-fit(AUC = 0.989) and prediction accuracy(AUC = 0.985), and based on the validation dataset it outperforms benchmark models including LR(0.885), LMT(0.934), BLR(0.936), ADT(0.976), NBT(0.974), REPTree(0.811), ANFIS-BAT(0.944), ANFIS-CA(0.921), ANFIS-IWO(0.939), ANFIS-ICA(0.947), and ANFIS-FA(0.917).We conclude that the DBPGA model is an excellent alternative tool for predicting flash flood susceptibility for other regions prone to flash floods.     

Fishery-induced Inter-annual Changes in the Mean Trophic Level,the Northern Sea of Oman off the Iranian Coast, 2002–2011

Ecosystem-based management is one of the most important approaches that may lead to reducing the impacts of fishing on ecosystems. In this context, we have assessed the impact of Iranian coastal fishing (using landing data of 49 exploited species) on the ecosystem of the North Sea of Oman (Sistan and Baluchestan Province), during the last decade (2002–2011), with emphasis on testing the occurrence of the “fishing down? phenomenon. The Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index are two indicators that we used for analysis. The data indicated that the increased total landings in this region might be related to the exploitation of marine fishery resources especially with regard to large pelagic fish. Over the past decade, moderate decreasing trends in MTL and an increasing trend in the FiB-index were observed. In this regard, an upward trend in the spatial expansion factor and also a downward trend in the piscivory index and in Primary Production Required (PPR) in the time period could all indicate a spatial expansion toward deep waters, the catching of the large pelagic piscivorous species, such as tuna, and a sign of fishing pressures on the ecosystem. The results suggest a range of fishery exploitation patterns throughout the food web but it seems that these patterns are not a consequence of ?fishing down?. We suggest that the monitoring research be continued in this region and these indicators should be used to make fisheries management decisions and to prevent the continuance of this trend in future.     

Unconfined Compression Strength of Polymer Stabilized Forest Soil Clay

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Due to undesired mechanical characteristics, some forest soils cause problems in road construction. Several methods have been proposed for stabilizing...