A nine-step approach for developing and implementing an “agricultural drought risk management plan”; case study: Alamut River basin in Qazvin,Iran

Occurrence of drought, as an inevitable natural climate feature, cannot be ceased while happening. However, costs of the consequences could be alleviated using mature scientific integrated approaches. To reduce the amount of damage, it is required to provide “Contingency” and “Mitigation” action plans. For this reason, development of efficient operating instructions for various regions based on weather conditions and field studies is needed as well as having a sophisticated understanding of socioeconomic situations. This paper describes an approach to provide the first national agricultural drought risk management plan for a river basin in Iran country as a pilot. The study lasted for 3 years as a national technical research project for the “soil conservation and watershed management research institute.” To reach the objectives, besides holding workshops and specialized think-tank meetings, field researches were done. Based on the socioeconomic data sources in the basin and the results of meetings by participation of local managers and residents, the final plan was developed. Moreover, in order to carry out this research, different climatic, agricultural and local information were collected in the watershed. In the next steps, potential risks and vulnerabilities of various agricultural sectors due to the hazard were evaluated. In this study, a nine-step approach to develop an agricultural drought risk management plan proposing different scientific–managerial phases based on the latest experts’ opinions, released international scientific best practices, and existing conditions governing the region was followed. With respect to the average income of US$ one million from agriculture and animal husbandry in the river basin, total drought loss varies from US$ 86,000 to US$ 258,000 for a range of light to very intense drought conditions, respectively. The setup of these nine executive phases defined monitoring, forecasting, and warning steps in working teams and managed the subprograms in partnership with stakeholders and decision-makers to mitigate the rate of drought damage from 30 to 47% (depending on the severity of the drought condition).

     

Designing infill directional drilling in mineral exploration by using particle swarm optimization algorithm

Geostatistical optimization in designing infill boreholes is an important cost-effective approach in increasing the accuracy of the tonnage and grade of an ore deposit. In this research, a new approach is proposed to design the optimum infill directional boreholes. In the proposed approach, the Kriging estimation variance is considered as the objective function and the number and properties of the optimum boreholes are estimated to minimize the objective function. The optimization procedure is implemented by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Range of the spatial and directional properties of new boreholes is determined by considering the primary information of the mineralization and administrative constraint of drilling. Then, the PSO algorithm is iteratively applied, and in each iteration, the variation of the estimated Kriging variance after drilling the new boreholes is determined and properties of the new boreholes are updated. The iterative procedure of the algorithm is continued until minimum Kriging variance is satisfied. The approach was applied to the Dalli Cu-Au porphyry deposit in Iran and three new infill directional boreholes were designed by considering six earlier boreholes from the preliminary exploration stage. New optimum boreholes were located where less information from the preliminary exploration stage exists and the highest variance is considered. Two new boreholes are near to vertical (78°) and the third is an inclined with 55° dip. By drilling these three new boreholes, the estimated grade model could be upgraded by 20%. For simplicity, quickness and the ability to search for the required numbers and specifications of a group of directional boreholes in a 3D environment are the most advantages aspects of the proposed approach.     

A Comprehensive Numerical Study of Hydraulic Fracturing Process and Its Affecting Parameters

Production of hydrocarbons from shale formations has been made possible mainly due to hydraulic fracture (HF) technology. It increases the permeability of reservoir rocks around a well by connecting fractures and improving conductivity. HF behavior especially in presence of natural fractures have recently given much attention in studies. This paper investigates HF propagation and its associated parameters in various conditions. A higher order displacement discontinuity method is used to achieve higher accuracy in the results. First, behavior of crack opening displacement (COD) of an HF i.e. HF width in various conditions is studied. COD is a key parameter in determination of an HF operation success. It is proportional to production rate of oil and gas wells and provides a path for proppant entrance into the fractures. An equation considering many important parameters, based on numerous numerical modellings of various mechanical and geometrical effects on COD is proposed with coefficient of determination and standard error of 94.35% and 4.37 × 10^?4 respectively. The next part of the paper studies the HF propagation in a naturally fractured reservoir. These natural fractures alter the stress fields and hence affect the propagation of a hydraulic fracture. In fact, it is shown that in certain orientations of hydraulic fractures and natural fractures, the effect of natural fractures disappear or completely changes propagation path. Using a combination of several interaction criteria, a new modeling of HFs and NFs interaction is presented. The modellings showed that spacing and angle of intersection can significantly affect HFs propagation. The results of COD and HF propagation in presence of natural fractures may be considered in HG design and primary orientation of perforated fractures.     

An AHP–TOPSIS Predictive Model for District-Scale Mapping of Porphyry Cu–Au Potential: A Case Study from Salafchegan Area (Central Iran)

The Salafchegan area in central Iran is a greenfield region of high porphyry Cu–Au potential, for which a sound prospectivity model is required to guide mineral exploration. Satellite imagery, geological geochemical, geophysical, and mineral occurrence datasets of the area were used to run an innovative integration model for porphyry Cu–Au exploration. Five favorable multi-class evidence maps, representing diagnostic porphyry Cu–Au recognition criteria (intermediate igneous intrusive and sub-volcanic host rocks, structural controls, hydrothermal alterations, stream sediment Cu anomalies, magnetic signatures), were combined using analytic hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution to calculate a final map of porphyry Cu–Au potential in the Salafchegan area.     

Characterisation and spatial distribution of gravitational slope deformation in the Upper Rhone catchment (Western Swiss Alps)

The influence of gravitational slope deformation (GSD) on erosion rates and the shape of mountain belts has been identified worldwide, particularly in valleys affected by glacial retreat. However, due to a lack of understanding about the main predisposing factors influencing their spatial distribution, size and failure mechanisms, the effective impact of GSD on the evolution of the landscape remains difficult to quantify. This study presents the first detailed, regional-scale GSD inventory of the entire Upper Rhone catchment (western Switzerland). The detection and mapping of GSD are performed by combining different remote sensing approaches. Moreover, we propose a detailed characterisation of GSD, taking into account geometry, morphology and failure mechanisms. Based on these analyses, more than 300 GSD are identified, corresponding to 11 % of the entire study area. Spatial and statistical analyses indicate that GSD are not uniformly distributed across the study area: six GSD clusters are highlighted, containing more than 80 % of the GSD events detected. Our observations suggest that the distribution of GSDs is primarily related to coexisting active tectonic processes (including high uplift gradients and earthquake activity) and pre-existing regional-scale, tectonic weakness zones. The region’s lithological and structural conditions, on the other hand, appear largely to influence the failure mechanisms and the sizes of the GSD detected.     

A hybridized numerical and regression method for estimating the minimum rock pillar width of twin circular tunnels

Twin tunnels can be used for many applications. Interaction between two tunnels is an important problem in tunnel engineering that should be studied specially. Numerical investigations are well adapted to field data and numerical methods can be used in design of rock pillar of twin circular tunnels. So far, no relationship has been provided to estimate the minimum stable rock pillar width. In this paper, the interaction between twin circular tunnels has been studied using 2D finite element analysis. To do this, a great number of twin tunnels were modeled in Phase2 software with different conditions of rock mass (RMR value) and depth of tunnel. Models were analyzed and minimum stable rock pillar width was determined. This process was repeated for three different ratios of K (ratio of horizontal stress to vertical stress, 0.5, 1, and 1.5). Finally, according to the linear and nonlinear regression methods, the best merit function was fitted to result of numerical analysis. Then, new approximate formula was proposed to estimate the minimum rock pillar width according to RMR value and depth of twin circular tunnels with different K values. The formulae are very accurate (coefficient of correlation equals to minimum 0.96) that can be used for estimating the minimum rock pillar width of twin circular tunnels.     

Analyses of Inclined Cracks Neighboring Two Iso-Path Cracks in Rock-Like Specimens Under Compression

Crack propagation process in pre-cracked rock like specimens has been studied experimentally and numerically considering three cracks in the middle part of each specimen. The rock-like specimens are specially prepared from Portland pozzolana cement, fine sands and water. These pre-cracked cylindrical specimens (each containing a single inclined crack in the neighborhood of two iso-path cracks) are experimentally tested under compressive loading. The same problems are numerically simulated by a modified displacement discontinuity method using higher order displacement discontinuity elements and higher order special crack tip elements for crack tip treatment to increase the accuracy of the Mode I and Mode II stress intensity factors obtained based on linear elastic fracture mechanics theory. The crack propagation and coalescence paths of the inclined crack are estimated by implementing a suitable iteration algorithm of incremental crack length extension in a direction predicted by using the maximum tangential stress criterion. The numerical and analytical crack extension analyses are compared which are in good agreement and show the validity, applicability and accuracy of the present work.     

3D Design of Optimum Complementary Boreholes by Integrated Analysis of Various Exploratory Data Using a Sequential-MADM Approach

Natural Resources Research - Additional and complementary mineral exploration boreholes are often designed to obtain valuable information about mineralized intervals with the least cost. In this...