Technology innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: An assessment with the WITCH model

This paper examines the dynamics of innovation in low-carbon energy technologies distinguishing between research and development and technology diffusion as a response to alternative climate policies. We assess the implications of second-best policies that depart from the assumption of immediate and global participation and of full technology availability. The analysis highlights the heterogeneous effects of climate policy on different energy R&D programs and discusses the contribution of important determinants such as carbon price and policy stringency, policy credibility, policy and technological spillovers and absorptive capacity.     

Analysis, synthesis and modelling of high-resolution observations of salt-marsh eco-geomorphological patterns in the Venice lagoon

The present paper describes observations, analyses and models of salt-marsh channel network and vegetation patterns with the aim of contributing to the development of predictive models of ecological and morphological co-evolution. Existing and new observations are described, with particular emphasis on remote sensing and ancillary field surveys, which are shown to allow reliable, accurate and repeatable quantitative characterizations of landform and vegetation properties over the spatial scales of interest. The observed channel network morphological characters are then used as the basis and validation of models describing the emergence of channel network and vegetation spatial patterns. In particular, with reference to observations performed in the Venice Lagoon, the note describes: (i) new, 2-cm resolution, characterizations of channel network geometry obtained from “proximal sensing” photographic observations; (ii) the reliable quantitative maps of salt-marsh vegetation which may be retrieved from hyperspectral remote sensing data and field ancillary observations; (iii) a synthesis of recent and new analyses of the statistical properties of vegetation and landform spatial organization, that may be inferred from the maps so derived; (iv) recent and new conceptual and quantitative ecological and geomorphic models developed and validated by remote-sensing and field observations. A coherent observational and theoretical eco-morphodynamic framework is then proposed.     

Improved 2-D attenuation analysis for Northern Italy using a merged dataset from selected regional seismic networks

A merged, high-quality waveform dataset from different seismic networks has been used to improve our understanding of lateral seismic attenuation for Northern Italy. In a previous study on the same region, Morasca et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1936–1946, 2008) were able to resolve only a small area due to limited data coverage. For this reason, the interpretation of the attenuation anomalies was difficult given the complexity of the region and the poor resolution of the available data. In order to better understand the lateral changes in the crustal structure and thickness of this region, we selected 770 earthquakes recorded by 54 stations for a total of almost 16,000 waveforms derived from seismic networks operating totally or partially in Northern Italy. Direct S-wave and coda attenuation images were obtained using an amplitude ratio technique that eliminates source terms from the formulation. Both direct and early-coda amplitudes are used as input for the inversions, and the results are compared. Results were obtained for various frequency bands ranging between 0.3 and 25.0 Hz and in all cases show significant improvement with respect to the previous study since the resolved area has been extended and more crossing paths have been used to image smaller scale anomalies. Quality-factor estimates are consistent with the regional tectonic structure exhibiting a general trend of low attenuation under the Po Plain basin and higher values for the Western Alps and Northern Apennines. The interpretation of the results for the Eastern Alps is not simple, possibly because our resolution for this area is still not adequate to resolve small-scale structures.     

Curation protocol of Phobos sample returned by Martian Moons eXploration

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) mission will launch a spacecraft in 2024 to return samples from Phobos in 2029. Curatorial work for the returned Phobos samples is critical for the sample allocation without degrading the sample integrity and subsequent sample analysis that will provide new constraints on the origin of Phobos and the evolution of the circum-Mars environment. The Sample Analysis Working Team of the MMX is designing the sample curation protocol. The curation protocol consists of three phases: (1) quick analysis (extraction and mass spectrometry for gases), (2) pre-basic characterization (bulk-scale observation), and (3) basic characterization (grain-by-grain observation and allocation of the sample aliquots). Nondestructive analyses within the clean chamber (e.g., visible and near-infrared spectral imaging) and outside the chamber (e.g., gas mass spectrometry) are incorporated into the curation flow in coordination with the MMX mission instrument teams for ground-truthing the remote-sensing data sets. The MMX curation/sample analysis flow enables the seamless integration between the sample and remote-sensing data sets to maximize the scientific value of the collected Phobos samples.     

Weakening of gneiss surfaces colonized by endolithic lichens in the temperate climate area of northwest Italy

A role of lithobionts in geomorphological processes is increasingly argued, but the spatio‐temporal scale of their impact is largely unexplored in many ecosystems. This study first characterizes in the temperate zone (northwest Italy) the relationships between lithobiontic communities including endolithic lichens and the hardness of their siliceous rock substrate (Villarfocchiardo Gneiss). The communities are characterized, on humid and xeric quarry surfaces exposed for decades and natural outcrops exposed for centuries, in terms of lichen and microbial constituents, using a combined morphological and molecular approach, and with regard to their development on and within the gneiss. A lichen species belonging to Acarosporaceae (Polysporina‐Sarcogyne‐Acarospora group, needing taxonomic revision) chasmoendolithically colonizes both the humid and xeric quarry surfaces, on which epilithic cyanobacterial biofilms and epilithic pioneer lichens respectively occur. Light and electron microscopic observations show the development of the endolithic thalli within rock microcracks and the hyphal penetration along crystal boundaries down to depths of 1 to 3 mm, more pronounced within the humid surfaces. Such colonization patterns are likely related to biogeophysical deterioration, while no chemical alteration characterizes minerals contacted by the endolithic lichen. By contrast, on natural outcrops, where the endolithic colonization is negligible, a reddish rind below epilithic lichens indicates chemical weathering processes. Schmidt Hammer measurements highlight that the endolithic lichens deeply affect the hardness of the gneiss (down to ?60% with respect to fresh controls and surfaces only colonized by cyanobacteria), exerting a significantly higher weakening effect with respect to the associated epilithic lithobionts. The phenomenon is more remarkable on humid than on xeric quarry surfaces and natural outcrops, where epilithic lichens are likely involved in long‐term hardening processes supporting surface stabilization. Endolithic lichens are thus active biogeomorphological agents at the upper millimetric layer of siliceous rocks in temperate areas, exerting their weakening action during the early decade‐scaled stages of surface exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal temperature variations and energy demand

This paper presents an empirical study of the relationship between residential energy demand and temperature. Unlike previous studies in this field, the data sample has a global coverage and special emphasis is given to the heterogeneous response of different regions and to the contrasting effects on energy demand for cooling and heating purposes. To account for this we distinguish between different regions, seasons, and energy sources. Short- and long-run temperature demand elasticities are estimated. These features make the model results especially valuable in the analysis of climate change impacts as they provide an empirical basis for the study of the impact of climate change on energy demand. To illustrate the potential of the results as a basis for the study of climate change impacts, the estimates are used in a simple exercise that projects changes in energy demand due to temperatures increase in 2085.     

The value of technology and of its evolution towards a low carbon economy

This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of specific mitigation technologies, comparing three integrated assessment models used in the RECIPE comparison exercise. Our results indicate that the diversification of the carbon mitigation portfolio is an important determinant of the feasibility of climate policy. Foregoing specific low carbon technologies raises the cost of achieving the climate policy, though at different rates. CCS and renewables are shown to have the highest value, given their flexibility and wide coverage. The costs associated with technology failure are shown to be related to the role that each technology plays in the stabilization scenario, but also to the expectations about their technological progress. In particular, the costs of restriction of mature technologies can be partly compensated by more innovation and technological advancement.     

Innovation benefits from nuclear phase-out: can they compensate the costs?

This paper investigates whether an inefficient allocation of abatement due to constraints on the use of currently available low carbon mitigation options can promote innovation in new technologies and have a positive impact on welfare. We focus on the case of a nuclear power phase-out and endogenous technical change in energy efficiency and alternative low carbon technologies. The research is inspired by the re-thinking about nuclear power deployment which took place in some countries, especially in Western Europe, after the Fukushima accident in March 2011. The analysis uses an Integrated Assessment Model, WITCH, which features multiple externalities related to greenhouse gas emissions and innovation market failures. Our results show that phasing out nuclear power stimulates R&D investments and deployment of technologies with large learning potential. The resulting technology benefits that would not otherwise occur due to intertemporal and international externalities almost completely offset the economic costs of foregoing nuclear power. The extent of technology benefits depends on the stringency of the climate policy and is distributed unevenly across countries.