Methodology of Environmental Standardization for Natural Waters

Doklady Earth Sciences - This paper discusses sources of significant errors that occur in the course of determination of the primary environmental standard for natural waters: the maximum...     

Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not.     

A 1600-year history of the Labrador Current off Nova Scotia

A multicore from Emerald Basin, on the continental margin off Nova Scotia, has a modern ¹⁴C age at the top, and other ¹⁴C dates indicate a linear sedimentation rate of ~30 cm/ka to 1600 calendar years BP. This rate is great enough to record century-to-millennial scale changes in the surface and deep (~250 m) waters in the basin that are influenced by the Labrador Current. We applied five proxies for seawater temperature changes to the sediments of Emerald Basin, including the percent abundance and the oxygen isotope ratio (d ¹⁸O) of the polar planktonic foraminifer N. pachyderma (s.), the unsaturation ratio of alkenones (U ^k' ₃₇) produced by prymnesiophyte phytoplankton, and the d ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca of benthic foraminifera. All five proxies indicate the ocean warmed suddenly sometime in the past 150 years or so. The exact timing of this event is uncertain because ¹⁴C dating is inaccurate in recent centuries, but this abrupt warming probably correlates with widespread evidence for warming in the Arctic in the nineteenth century. Because the Canadian Archipelago is one of the two main sources for the Labrador Current, warming and melting of ice caps in that region may have affected Labrador Current properties. Before this recent warming, sea surface temperature was continually lower by 1–2 °C, and bottom water was colder by about 6 °C in Emerald Basin. These results suggest that there was no Medieval Warm Period in the coastal waters off Nova Scotia. Because there is also no evidence of medieval warming in the Canadian archipelago, it seems likely that coastal waters from Baffin Bay to at least as far south as Nova Scotia were continually cold for ~1500 of the past 1600 years.     

Nonlinear Effects in the Formation of Water Quality

Doklady Earth Sciences - The indicators of the composition and quality of natural water are random variables. Since the “linear” approach to their assessment and forecast provides no...     

Storm observations by remote sensing and influences of gustiness on ocean waves and on generation of rogue waves

The impact of the gustiness on surface waves under storm conditions is investigated with focus on the appearance of wave groups with extreme high amplitude and wavelength in the North Sea. During many storms characterized by extremely high individual waves measured near the German coast, especially in cold air outbreaks, the moving atmospheric open cells are observed by optical and radar satellites. According to measurements, the footprint of the cell produces a local increase in the wind field at sea surface, moving as a consistent system with a propagation speed near to swell wave-traveling speed. The optical and microwave satellite data are used to connect mesoscale atmospheric turbulences and the extreme waves measured. The parameters of open cells observed are used for numerical spectral wave modeling. The North Sea with horizontal resolution of 2.5?km and with focus on the German Bight was simulated. The wind field “storm in storm,” including moving organized mesoscale eddies with increased wind speed, was generated. To take into account the rapid moving gust structure, the input wind field was updated each 5?min. The test cases idealized with one, two, and four open individual cells and, respectively, with groups of open cells, with and without preexisting sea state, as well the real storm conditions, are simulated. The model results confirm that an individual-moving open cell can cause the local significant wave height increase in order of meters within the cell area and especially in a narrow area of 1–2?km at the footprint center of a cell (the cell's diameter is 40–90?km). In a case of a traveling individual open cell with 15?m·s^?1 over a sea surface with a preexisting wind sea of and swell, a local significant wave height increase of 3.5?m is produced. A group of cells for a real storm condition produces a local increase of significant wave height of more than 6?m during a short time window of 10–20?min (cell passing). The sea surface simulation from modeled wave spectra points out the appearance of wave groups including extreme individual waves with a period of about 25?s and a wavelength of more than 350?m under the cell's footprint. This corresponds well with measurement of a rogue wave group with length of about 400?m and a period of near 25?s. This has been registered at FiNO-1 research platform in the North Sea during Britta storm on November 1, 2006 at 04:00 UTC. The results can explain the appearance of rogue waves in the German Bight and can be used for ship safety and coastal protection. Presently, the considered mesoscale gustiness cannot be incorporated in present operational wave forecasting systems, since it needs an update of the wind field at spatial and temporal scales, which is still not available for such applications. However, the scenario simulations for cell structures with appropriate travel speed, observed by optical and radar satellites, can be done and applied for warning messages.     

A COGNITIVE SCALAR FOR THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT CONNECTION MATRIX

The degree to which people judge the change in transit service level as service connectivity changes is assumed to vary with total transfer waiting time. An experiment was devised to collect measures of cognized connectivity of intercity transit services in relation to transfer time, and cognitive scalar values were consequently derived. An inverse relationship was found between cognized service level and connectivity; cognized transit level decreased at a decreasing rate. An analysis of the bus-service network in the Israeli Galilee region suggests the appropriateness of cognitive scalars for measuring the internodal accessibility of public transport services.     

Reconstruction of natural groundwater flow paths in the multiple aquifer system of the northern Negev (Israel), based on lithological and structural evidence

 The Judea Group, a limestone and dolomite karstic aquifer of late Albian–Turonian age, is one of the most important sources of water in Israel. In the western part of the country, the Judea Group aquifer is also known as the Yarkon–Taninim basin. In the northern Negev, the Judea Group is a recipient for fresh water flowing southward from the Hebron Mountains and of brackish paleowater flowing northward from Sinai. Very little is known of the hydraulic properties of this aquifer. In order to outline assumed natural flow paths that existed in this karstic environment prior to groundwater exploitation, use was made of lithological, structural, and paleomorphological features. A detailed hydrogeological conceptual model of the Judea Group aquifer in northern Negev was established by the geological interpretation of high-resolution seismic reflection and by analysis of lithological evidence from boreholes. Isopach, isolith-contour, and isolith-ratio maps were compiled for the main lithological components. Increase in transmissivity values is inversely proportional with the cumulative thickness of argillaceous components. The lithological and hydraulic evidence provides the basis for subdividing the subsurface into distinctive permeability zones for the upper and lower sections of the aquifer; for outlining possible preferential groundwater flow paths for both subaquifers; and for improving understanding of groundwater-salinty variations that result from lithological variability, direction of groundwater flow paths, groundwater flow rates, and the duration of rock/water interactions. In an earlier conceptual model of the basin, the Judea Group aquifer was regarded as a continuous and undisturbed entity. The present study reveals an intricate groundwater flow pattern that is controlled by lithological and structural factors that create zones of preferential flow. This interpretation bears on the overall evaluation of groundwater resources and their management and exploitation. Received, December 1996 · Revised, October 1997, June 1998 · Accepted, July 1998     

Limiting hydrochemical factors for sustainability of water resources: The Cisjordanian experience

In Cisjordan, surface- and groundwater flow are either towards the Jordan Valley-Dead Sea-Arava Valley (the Rift) or the Mediterranean Sea. Due to upstream exploitation by riparians to the Jordan River, the historical annual flow, which fluctuated between 250 and 1100 Mm³, has declined to a mere 100-200 Mm³. The remaining flow south of Lake Kinneret is highly polluted and heavily loaded with salts. Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) is one of the major water resources in the area. Annually, between 200 and 700 Mm³ reach the Lake as surface and groundwater flow. The relatively high salinity of the Lake is caused by thermomineral water discharging from springs and seepages located onshore and on the bottom of the Lake. The main factors causing deterioration of the groundwater quality in the Rift are of geogenic character. These are different types of brines, whose outflow and penetration into freshwater aquifers was triggered by overpumpage. Contemporary encroachment of seawater caused by intensive water exploitation in the Coastal Plain is manageable and reversible. However, due to lack of hydrogeological evidence, no such statement can be made about the circulation of seawater beneath the Coastal Plain and into the deep-seated Yarkon-Taninim aquifer or the upflow of brines in the Rift.The flow regimes of the different brine bodies could not be elucidated. Whether each such brine-body flows by its particular hydrological regime or whether the movement of the different bodies is intradependent or interdependent with the regional movement of fresh groundwater, remain open questions. Therefore, sustainable development of groundwater resources is clearly dependent on the elucidation of the relationship between changes in the pressure of the brine with depth and its relationship to the overlying freshwater.The average total annual recharge of all water sources in Cisjordan is 1820 Mm³, which means that the total production of water must be managed within the limits of this annual volume. During drought years, total groundwater extraction exceeds the safe yield, causing drastic lowering of water levels and upflow of saline waters from greater depths.Because of the structural complexity of aquifers and hydrochemical variability of the numerous groundwater bodies, new hydrochemical methods have been developed for the identification of groundwater bodies and for the elucidation of their origins. These methods combine macrochemical, microchemical, and isotopic evidences. By combining distribution patterns of rare earths, yttrium and stable isotopes, a complete picture of catchment lithology and the altitude and latitude of precipitation could be obtained.The area west of the Jordan River is characterized by the occurrence of transboundary surface- and groundwater basins in which fresh and saline water and brines flow across political borders between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. It is very difficult to assess separately the annual safe yield of water resources for each of the two national entities. Neither country may dispose independently of its waters and is usually at the mercy of the other riparian. There is as yet no general multilateral international treaty in force allocating the water resources of international watercourses. At present there are two rules for the management of the waters of an international drainage basin—the rule of Equitable Distribution, and the obligation Not to Cause Significant Harm. The rules of equitable distribution have tended to focus on the issue of quantities of water rather than on quality of water, which is really relevant to the issue of equitable distribution. Future negotiations on the uses of the basin will need to deal with issues of characteristic salinities and geochemical features and on their impact on equitable sharing of water resources.     

Delineating regions for transit assistance allocation: a geographical approach

Governmental assistance to transport operators, which is increasing simultaneously with a decrease in patronage, is aimed at ensuring a regular service to all populated areas regardless of economic rationale. A purely geographical approach has been proposed to define priority transport subsidy allocation regions. A priority allocation index based on fundamental principles such as rank-size distribution, gravitation, and spatial equity has been used as a national experiment in Israel. This involves cluster analysis to generate several alternative allocation regions from which planners may select an appropriate policy. This paper reviews the experiment and discusses the implications of the results for allocation of transport subsidies.