Pseudostatic approach for seismic analysis of pile group

This paper evaluates a simple approximate pseudostatic method for estimating the maximum internal forces and horizontal displacements of pile group subjected to lateral seismic excitation. The method involves two main steps: (1) computation of the free-field soil movements caused by the earthquake, and (2) the analysis of the response of the pile group based on the maximum free-field soil movements (considered as static movements) as well as a static loading at the pile head, which depends on the computed spectral acceleration of the structure being supported. The methodology takes into account the effects of group interaction and soil yielding at pile–soil interface. The applicability of this approach has been validated by a similar approach for single piles and then verified by both experimental centrifuge models of pile-supported structures and field measurements of Ohba-Ohashi Bridge in Japan. It is demonstrated that the proposed method yields reasonable estimates of the pile maximum moment, shear, and horizontal displacement for many practical cases despite of its simplicity. Limitations and reliability of the methodology are discussed and some practical conclusions on the performance of the proposed approach are presented.     

Subhaloes in scale-free cosmologies

We explore the dependence of the subhalo mass function on the spectral index n of the linear matter power spectrum using scale-free Einstein-de Sitter simulations with   n =−1  and −2.5. We carefully consider finite volume effects that may call into question previous simulations of   n < −2  power spectra. Subhaloes are found using a 6D friends-of-friends algorithm in all haloes originating from high-σ peaks. For   n =−1  , we find that the cumulative subhalo mass function is independent of the parameters used in the subhalo finding algorithm and is consistent with the subhalo mass function found in Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) simulations. In particular, the subhalo mass function is well fit by a power-law with an index of  α=−0.9  , that is the mass function has roughly equal mass in subhaloes per logarithmic interval in subhalo mass. Conversely, for   n =−2.5  , the algorithm parameters affect the subhalo mass function since subhaloes are more triaxial with less well-defined boundaries. We find that the index α is generally larger with  α≳−0.75  . We infer that although the subhalo mass function appears to be independent of n so long as   n ≳−2  , it begins to flatten as   n →−3  . Thus, the common practice of using  α≈−1.0  may greatly overestimate the number of subhaloes at the smallest scales in the CDM hierarchy.     

Fast linearized forecasts for subsurface flow data assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter

Ensemble methods present a practical framework for parameter estimation, performance prediction, and uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow and transport modeling. In particular, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has received significant attention for its promising performance in calibrating heterogeneous subsurface flow models. Since an ensemble of model realizations is used to compute the statistical moments needed to perform the EnKF updates, large ensemble sizes are needed to provide accurate updates and uncertainty assessment. However, for realistic problems that involve large-scale models with computationally demanding flow simulation runs, the EnKF implementation is limited to small-sized ensembles. As a result, spurious numerical correlations can develop and lead to inaccurate EnKF updates, which tend to underestimate or even eliminate the ensemble spread. Ad hoc practical remedies, such as localization, local analysis, and covariance inflation schemes, have been developed and applied to reduce the effect of sampling errors due to small ensemble sizes. In this paper, a fast linear approximate forecast method is proposed as an alternative approach to enable the use of large ensemble sizes in operational settings to obtain more improved sample statistics and EnKF updates. The proposed method first clusters a large number of initial geologic model realizations into a small number of groups. A representative member from each group is used to run a full forward flow simulation. The flow predictions for the remaining realizations in each group are approximated by a linearization around the full simulation results of the representative model (centroid) of the respective cluster. The linearization can be performed using either adjoint-based or ensemble-based gradients. Results from several numerical experiments with two-phase and three-phase flow systems in this paper suggest that the proposed method can be applied to improve the EnKF performance in large-scale problems where the number of full simulation is constrained.     

Power spectrum for the small-scale Universe

The first objects to arise in a cold dark matter (CDM) universe present a daunting challenge for models of structure formation. In the ultra small-scale limit, CDM structures form nearly simultaneously across a wide range of scales. Hierarchical clustering no longer provides a guiding principle for theoretical analyses and the computation time required to carry out credible simulations becomes prohibitively high. To gain insight into this problem, we perform high-resolution  ( N = 720³–1584³)  simulations of an Einstein–de Sitter cosmology where the initial power spectrum is   P ( k ) ∝ k ⁿ ,  with  −2.5 ≤ n ≤− 1  . Self-similar scaling is established for   n =−1  and −2 more convincingly than in previous, lower resolution simulations and for the first time, self-similar scaling is established for an   n =−2.25  simulation. However, finite box-size effects induce departures from self-similar scaling in our   n =−2.5  simulation. We compare our results with the predictions for the power spectrum from (one-loop) perturbation theory and demonstrate that the renormalization group approach suggested by McDonald improves perturbation theory's ability to predict the power spectrum in the quasi-linear regime. In the non-linear regime, our power spectra differ significantly from the widely used fitting formulae of Peacock & Dodds and Smith et al. and a new fitting formula is presented. Implications of our results for the stable clustering hypothesis versus halo model debate are discussed. Our power spectra are inconsistent with predictions of the stable clustering hypothesis in the high- k limit and lend credence to the halo model. Nevertheless, the fitting formula advocated in this paper is purely empirical and not derived from a specific formulation of the halo model.     

Remote sensing for change detection in the Sunderbands,Bangladesh

Abstract

Change detection study has been made for the mangrove forest of the Sunderbans (Bangladesh) using remote sensing and other ancillary data (1933–1987). At the advent of the British rule the forest was double their present extent. Its present area is about 6000.0 Sq. Km. The productive land area has been increased from 1960. Gewa (Excoecaria agallocha)‐Sundri (Heritiera fames) cover type areas have been increased at the expense of pure Sundri type. Height classes of the forest have been changed, basal area/ha has decreased. It is observed that there is a net decrease in Sundri standing volume of the order of 40% and that of Gewa 45% over the past 25 years (1960–1985). Total timber volume for all of the species has been reduced to near about a half. Timber volume/ha and basal area/ha for Gewa have increased in the Sharankhola Island of the forest. Sundri tress are being replaced by Gewa. CIR aerial photographs have been found most suitable for cover type analysis and other change detection study. Regular monitoring of the changes of the forest using remote sensing technique has been suggested.     

Does disaster shocks affect farmers’ willingness for insurance? Mediating effect of risk perception and survey data from risk-prone areas in East China

Natural Hazards - The study estimates the impact of disaster shocks and risk perception on farmers’ willingness for insurance. Based on data of 328 farmers from the Shandong province of East...     

Pseudostatic Seismic Response Analysis of a Pile Group in a Soil Slope

This paper presents a simple approximate pseudostatic method for estimating the maximum internal forces and horizontal displacements of a pile group located in a soil slope. The method is extension of an existing similar method developed by the authors for the case of a horizontal ground surface. The method employed for horizontal ground case involves two main steps: first, the free-field soil movements caused by the earthquake are computed; Then, the response of the pile group is analyzed based on the maximum free-field soil movements as static movements, as well as a static loading at the pile head, which depends on the computed spectral acceleration of the structure being supported. This newly developed methodology takes into account the effects of group interaction and soil yielding. Simple modifications are applied to take into account the effect of slope on seismic deformations of the pile group, making use of the Newmark sliding block method. The applicability of the approach and the developed program is verified by comparisons made with both experimental shaking table tests and the results of a more refined analysis of a pile-supported wharf. It is demonstrated that the proposed method yields reasonable estimates of the pile maximum moment and horizontal displacement for many practical cases, despite its relative simplicity. The simplifying assumptions and the limitations as well as reliability of the methodology are discussed, and some practical conclusions on the performance of the proposed approach are suggested.