全球陆地年降水量与ENSO关系的初步研究

用全球陆地月降水资料（PREC／L），研究了1948－2000年期间的ENSO事件与全球陆地年降水量的关系，对全盛分析的结果进行了蒙特卡洛模拟经验。结果表明，暖事件年全球陆地年降水量大范围地明显减小，显著的地区是：赤道西太平洋区，中国的华北，赤道中美洲区，孟加拉湾北部及尼泊尔，东澳大利亚区，印度西部及巴基斯坦南部，勒拿河以东地区，西欧及南极的威尔克斯等区域。在暖事件年，陆地年降水量增加地区不多，主要是南美的智利和阿根廷，东非索马里，肯尼亚和坦桑亚，中东的土耳其，伊拉克及伊朗，北非的利比亚和阿尔及利亚，西南非的纳米比亚及非洲南部的博茨瓦纳和津巴布韦。统计检验表明，暖事件年全球陆地年降水量减少的面积比降水量增加的面积要大，而且更为显著，将本文结果与早期的研究结果进行了比较，研究还指出，ENSO的年代际变化对上述地区降水的年代际变化影响不明显。但是80年代以后的暖事件对东澳大利亚干旱，中国的华北的干旱的影响比80年代前的影响更大。     

Size and spatial distribution of loess slides on the Chinese Loess Plateau

ABSTRACT

The size and spatial distribution of loess slides are important for estimating the yield of eroded materials and determining the landslide risk. While previous studies have investigated landslide size distributions, the spatial distribution pattern of landslides at different spatial scales is poorly understood. The results indicate that the loess slide distribution exhibits a power-law scaling across a range of the size distribution. The mean landslide size and size distribution in the different geomorphic types are different. The double Pareto and inverse gamma functions can coincide well with the empirical probability distribution of the loess slide areas and can quantitatively reveal the rollover location, maximum probability, and scaling exponents. The frequency of loess slides increases with mean monthly precipitation. Moreover, point distance analysis showed that > 80% of landslides are located < 3 km from other loess slides. We found that the loess slides at the two study sites (Zhidan and Luochuan County) in northern Shaanxi Province, China show a significant clustered distribution. Furthermore, analysis results of the correlated fractal dimension show that the landslides exhibit a dispersed distribution at smaller spatial scales and a clustered distribution at larger spatial scales.     

淮河流域夏季降水异常与若干气候因子的关系

基于旋转经验正交函数分解 (REOF) 方法探讨淮河流域1961—2010年夏季降水与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO)、北大西洋涛动 (NAO)、印度洋偶极子 (IOD)、太平洋年代际振荡 (PDO) 之间的关系,并进一步分析各气候因子不同位相单独以及联合对淮河流域夏季降水的影响。结果表明:淮河流域夏季降水与ENSO,PDO,NAO,IOD等气候因子具有较稳定的相关性,其中,PDO和IOD是影响淮河流域夏季降水的关键因子,且PDO与夏季降水呈显著负相关关系;各气候因子的冷暖位相单独及联合对淮河流域夏季降水的影响不同,PDO的冷期以及NAO,IOD冷位相使流域北部的夏季降水量呈显著增加趋势,PDO分别联合ENSO,NAO和IOD的冷、暖位相对流域北部地区和淮河上游地区的夏季降水影响显著。     

高建筑对周围建筑雷击保护距离的模拟

在已有先导连接参数化方案的基础上,选取近地面层为研究区域,保持方案中其他基本参量不变,通过改变闪电的空间形态,在同一建筑分布的背景下进行多次闪电模拟。研究多个建筑之间的屏蔽作用以及建筑雷击保护距离与建筑相关特征参数之间的关系,结果表明:高建筑对矮建筑具有屏蔽作用,并存在一个临界保护距离,当高、矮建筑高度分别为190 m和165 m,宽度均为20 m时,建筑之间的距离在12 m以内,矮建筑受高建筑完全保护不遭受雷击;建筑之间的距离超过12 m,矮建筑遭雷击次数明显增多。     

北京市房山区三合庄村泥石流活动特征分析

2012年7月21日,北京地区发生了61年以来的最大降雨,特大强降雨引发房山区三合庄村泥石流地质灾害。为了最大限度的减少房山区三合庄村泥石流所带来的损失,本文选取该泥石流作为研究对象,采用了遥感解译和灾害地质实地调查等方法,确定了三合庄泥石流基本特征,从地形、物源和水源三方面研究了三合庄泥石流的成因,依据泥石流相关的防治工程勘查设计规范,采用雨洪法计算出三合庄村泥石流的活动特征,使用综合评分法判断了三合庄泥石流的易发性。     

Variation of Thornthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains,China

The Thornthwaite moisture index, an index of the supply of water(precipitation) in an area relative to the climatic demand for water(potential evapotranspiration), was used to examine the spatial and temporal variation of drought and to verify the influence of environmental factors on the drought in the Hengduan Mountains, China. Results indicate that the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Hengduan Mountains had been increasing since 1960 with a rate of 0.1938/yr. Annual Thornthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains was between –97.47 and 67.43 and the spatial heterogeneity was obvious in different seasons. Thornthwaite moisture index was high in the north and low in the south, and the monsoon rainfall had a significant impact on its spatial distribution. The tendency rate of Thornthwaite moisture index variation varied in different seasons, and the increasing trends in spring were greater than that in summer and autumn. However, the Thornthwaite moisture index decreased in winter. Thornthwaite moisture index increased greatly in the north and there was a small growth in the south of Hengduan Mountains. The increase of precipitation and decrease of evaporation lead to the increase of Thornthwaite moisture index. Thornthwaite moisture index has strong correlation with vegetation coverage. It can be seen that the correlation between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and Thornthwaite moisture index was positive in spring and summer, but negative in autumn and winter. Correlation between Thornthwaite moisture index and relative soil relative moisture content was positive in spring, summer and autumn, but negative in winter. The typical mountainous terrain affect the distribution of temperature, precipitation, wind speed and other meteorological factors in this region, and then affect the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite moisture index. The unique ridge-gorge terrain caused the continuity of water-heat distribution from the north to south, and the water-heat was stronger than that from the east to west part, and thus determined the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite moisture index. The drought in the Hengduan Mountains area is mainly due to the unstable South Asian monsoon rainfall time.     

Acquiring high-resolution topography and performing spatial analysis of loess landslides by using low-cost UAVs

The Loess Plateau is a region in China prone to frequent geological disasters, where thousands of loess landslides can be found. Conventional field survey methods are inadequate for the requirements of fine spatial analysis of landslides. Due to its numerous advantages (fast, efficient, low cost, safe, and able to acquire high-resolution data), structure from motion (SfM) technique to photogrammetric orientation of flights and modeling applied to photographs taken by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with a camera has become a powerful new tool for the generation of high-resolution topography that has emerged in recent years, which has become a powerful new technique for acquiring high-resolution topographic data. In this study, we conducted nearly two months of field UAV surveys of loess landslides on the Loess Plateau, eventually established 3D digital models for 11 loess landslides, and produced high-resolution digital orthophoto maps (DOMs) and digital elevation models (DEMs). High-resolution spatial analysis of the loess landslides (mainly including characteristic parameter extraction, topography profile analysis, surface feature analysis, and hydrologic analysis) was performed using Agisoft PhotoScan, ArcGIS 10.2, Global Mapper 17, and Origin Pro 9.0. The UAV technique allows us to further understand the micro-level internal spatial and structural characteristics of loess landslides. Moreover, not only does it allow us to accurately measure the characteristic geometric parameters but also enables us to detect the surface details of loess landslides (e.g., textures, fissures, and micro-landforms). Manifestly, we can also deduce the original structural characteristics and possible inducement mechanism of landslides based on a combination of high-resolution data acquired by UAVs, proper ground surveys, and theoretical knowledge. In summary, the low-cost UAVs are highly and especially suitable for surveys and digital terrain analysis of landslides on the Loess Plateau with sparse vegetation.     

岸滩侧蚀崩塌速率的试验量测方法

岸滩侧蚀崩塌现象普遍存在于冲积河流演变过程中,是河道治理需重点关注的问题之一,岸滩侧蚀崩塌速率的准确量测则是崩岸机理及其治理措施研究的关键基础。基于图像处理技术,建立了河岸侧蚀崩塌速率试验量测系统,通过图像追踪河岸模型上边缘示踪网格位置变迁,提出了一种河岸侧蚀崩塌速率测量方法。以试验水槽为例,对河岸侧蚀崩塌速率进行了量测,并与经验公式计算值进行了比对,两者基本吻合,可较好地反映流速、土体级配等岸滩侧蚀崩塌速率的影响因素及其变化规律。研究成果可为江河崩岸机理的深入研究提供技术支撑。     

川东北普光地区深层富钾卤水钾资源提取研究

四川盆地地下卤水资源丰富,尤其川东北地区地下卤水富含高品质钾资源。本项目以四川普光地区富钾卤水为研究对象,根据卤水组成,采用模拟计算并结合实验验证的方法,研究了高温蒸发时,氯化钠、氯化钾、光卤石、硼酸等矿物的析出阶段及特点。研究结果表明,当蒸失水率约80%时,体系中约85%的NaCl析出,同时KCl达到饱和,继续蒸发可获取钾石盐。控制总蒸失水率94%~95%时分离,体系中大于80%的钾可在这一阶段析出,且湿基中KCl品位可高达约45%;析出钾石盐后的卤水降至室温可获得NaCl、KCl、KCl·MgCl₂·6H₂O及H₃BO₃的混合物,硼的析出率可达到约80%。同时,研究表明,将蒸失水率约80%时分离石盐后的卤水直接降温可以获得湿基品位约高达70%的钾石盐矿,钾析出率约50%。综合对比分析,提出两条以钾资源开发为主的工艺路线:其一为“高温蒸发析氯化钠-高温蒸发析氯化钾-冷却析钾硼混盐”,通过加工获得KCl及H₃BO₃产品;其二为“高温蒸发析氯化钠-冷却析钾”,通过加工获得高端KCl产品。     

黄河北煤田10号煤煤层气储层物性及特征研究

煤层气是一种备受国家重视和开发利用的非常规清洁能源,煤层气储层物性的研究对煤层气资源的评价与开发具有重要意义。以黄河北煤田煤层气开发资料为基础,结合区域地质特征,应用煤层气地质理论对煤田内10号煤煤层气储层物性特征进行了研究。研究发现:10号煤层宏观煤岩类型以半亮煤为主,煤中有机显微组分以镜质组为主,无机显微组分以黏土为主;煤的变质程度比较高,整体进入成熟阶段;10号煤层储层孔裂隙发育、渗透率较低;10煤层对甲烷的吸附能力较强;10号煤层储层压力为2.16~4.20MPa,压力梯度为0.418~0.797MPa/100m,为低压储层至常压储层;黄河北煤田呈单斜构造,10号煤层埋藏深度较深,含水性较好,有利于煤层气保存。