1999—2003年西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报的误差分析

应用1999—2003年中国中央气象台 (CMO)、日本气象厅 (JMA) 以及美国联合台风警报中心 (JTWC) 发布的西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报资料, 从总误差、逐年误差趋势、不同海区误差、不同路径趋势误差、不同强度趋势误差等5个方面对各预报中心的路径及强度预报结果进行分析, 结果表明:5年总的平均误差以JTWC的路径预报误差最小, 而JMA的强度预报较准确; 在不同海域, 各预报中心的路径预报能力各有优势, 但在热带气旋的强度预报方面, JMA的方法在各海区都较稳定; 对不同路径趋势热带气旋的预报方面, 除了南海转向热带气旋的路径预报比JMA和CMO稍差一些之外, JTWC的路径预报在大多数情况下都是好于或相当于JMA和CMO; 在不同强度变化趋势热带气旋的预报方面, JTWC在大多数情况下都优于其他中心。上述结果帮助业务和科技人员全面了解各预报中心的预报能力优劣, 也为今后改进我国的热带气旋预报提供有益的参考。     

Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations

Climate Dynamics - Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the total global warming caused by an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level in a climate system....     

极端气温和极端降水复合事件的气候特征

基于1961-2014年的中国台站资料,侧重探讨极端气温和极端降水复合事件的气候特征。结果表明,基于客观方法检测出四类极端复合事件：暖湿、暖干、冷湿和冷干。四类事件的频发区分别位于东北地区、华南地区、西藏及华南地区和长江以南及云贵高原一带。全国暖湿、暖干事件频数呈增加趋势,春夏季频发;冷湿事件频数在西藏东北一带呈增加趋势,而在长江流域呈减少趋势,夏秋冬季频发;冷干事件频数呈减少趋势,秋冬季频发。四类极端复合事件经验正交分解的时间序列主模态均表现为年代际信号。进一步分析四类复合事件与能源消费量的联系表明,极端湿事件与能源消费量呈正相关,而极端干事件则相反。     

煤层陷落柱高分辨率地震探测技术

在华北、华东及西北地区近20多个煤田的石炭二叠系中，普遍存在着因煤系地层基底厚层灰岩古岩溶塌陷形成的煤层陷落柱，尤以山西省西山及汾河沿岸的煤田、河北省太行山中段的煤田更为普遍。煤层陷落柱发育形态分为圆锥形、筒形、斜塔形、不规则形等特点，应用高分辩地震勘探技术，根据陷落柱发育区反射波同相轴中断、扭曲、能量变弱、连续性变差、分叉合并或圈闭、产状突变等特征，可有效地探测其空间位置及形态。     

Deblurring Texture Extraction from Digital Aerial Image by Reforming “Steep Edge” Curve

Texture extract from digital aerial image is widely used in three-dimensional city modeling to generate “photo-realistic” views. In this paper, a method based on reforming “Steep edge” curve, which clearly explains how the diffraction of the sunlight makes digital aerial image blurring, is proposed to deblur the texture extraction from digital aerial image, and the experiment shows a good result in visualization and automation.     

2022年6月1日四川芦山6.1级地震应急产品及震源参数初步分析

北京时间2022年6月1日17时0分四川雅安市芦山县(30.37°N,102.94°E)发生6.1级地震,中国地震台网中心于震后3min发布自动速报结果、震后9min发布正式速报结果,同时联合多家单位启动地震应急产品产出工作,共产出震源参数、历史地震、地震构造、震源机制、余震精定位、推测烈度和震源破裂过程等9类应急产品。结果显示,本次地震发生在龙门山断裂带,位于青藏高原巴颜喀拉地块、岷山构造带、川滇构造带的交汇处;震源机制解表明该地震为一次逆冲型事件;余震精定位结果显示余震展布呈近NE向,与震中区域断裂走向基本一致;烈度速报推测极震区烈度达Ⅸ度,区域面积约2km²,Ⅷ度及以上区域总面积约197km²,涉及四镇一乡。     

2022年9月5日四川泸定6.8级地震初步研究结果

北京时间2022年9月5日12时52分四川甘孜州泸定县(29.59°N,102.08°E)发生6.8级地震,中国地震预警网于震后6.1s产出首报预警结果;中国地震台网中心于震后3min发布自动速报结果,震后11min发布正式速报结果,同时联合中国地震局地球物理研究所、地质研究所、地震预测研究所和应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院启动地震应急产品产出工作,共产出震源基本参数、历史地震、地震构造、地震矩张量、余震精定位、地震烈度和震源破裂过程等9类应急产品。结合上述应急产品,对本次地震进行了研究,初步刻画了地震的构造环境、震源特征、断层形态和受灾区域,并分析了地震成因。结果表明,本次地震是发生在鲜水河断裂带南东段雪门坎—磨西断裂上的一次倾角近直立的走滑型事件,自起始破裂点向南东破裂,破裂长度约20km,最大滑移点深度约6km。余震精定位结果显示余震呈NW—SE向展布,长度约50km,深度主要集中在3～14km,展布方向与震中区域断裂走向基本一致,主震震中处断层倾角近乎垂直,与震源机制揭示的特征一致。烈度速报推测与地震烈度图显示极震区烈度达Ⅸ度,区域面积约280km²,Ⅷ度及以上区域总面积约505km²,涉及17个乡镇。认为本次地震是青藏高原隆升和高原上地壳物质向南东挤出,导致鲜水河断裂南东段雪门坎—磨西断裂上积累的应力的一次快速释放过程。     

Rupture process and aftershock focal mechanisms of the 2022 M6.8 Luding earthquake in Sichuan

According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, a strong earthquake of M6.8 occurred in Luding County, Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China (102.08°E, 29.59°N), on September 5, 2022, with a focal depth of 16 km. Rapid determination of the source parameters of the earthquake sequence is vital for post-earthquake rescue, disaster assessment, and scientific research. Near-field seismic observations play a key role in the fast and reliable determination of earthquake source parameters. The numerous broadband seismic stations and strong-motion stations recently deployed by the National Earthquake Intensity Rapid Report and Early Warning project have provided valuable real-time near-field observation data. Using these near-field observations and conventional mid- and far-field seismic waveform records, we obtained the focal mechanism solutions of the mainshock and M ≥ 3.0 aftershocks through the waveform fitting method. We were further able to rapidly invert the rupture process of the mainshock. Based on the evaluation of the focal mechanism solution of the mainshock and the regional tectonic setting, we speculate that the Xianshuihe fault formed the seismogenic structure of the M6.8 strong earthquake. The aftershocks formed three spatially separated clusters with distinctly different focal mechanisms, reflecting the segmented nature of the Xianshuihe fault. As more high-frequency information has been applied in this study, the absolute location of the fault rupture is better constrained by the near-field strong-motion data. The rupture process of the mainshock correlates well with the spatial distribution of aftershocks, i.e., aftershock activities were relatively weak in the maximum slip area, and strong aftershock activities were distributed in the peripheral regions.