An UV survey of the galactic plane

The present paper is the introduction to a systematic analysis of 123 6-degree fields near the galactic plane, recorded in the medium ultraviolet (2000 Å) by the ballon-borne experiment SCAP 2000 of the Laboratoire d'Astronomie Spatiale, Marseille, and Geneva Observatory. The available data are presented and the general properties of the images are briefly discussed.It is shown that the high selectivity of the UV passband regarding spectral type, together with the strong interstellar extinction at that wavelength, provide the necessary conditions for an efficient application of Wolf's method to study the distribution of interstellar matter in the solar neighbourhood. The results of a fast analysis of the available data are presented here.     

Palynology suggests hydrocarbon mobilization in Ordovician of Kasba Tadla Basin,Morocco

Palynological analysis of twelve wells shows that the metamorphic gradient of the pre-Mesozoic in the Kasba Tadla Basin of Morocco increases rapidly northwest-, southeast-, and eastward, from the center of the Basin. In the center, the Ordovician may still be releasing mobile hydrocarbons.

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Zusammenfassung Eine palynologische Untersuchung von zwölf Bohrungen zeigt, daß der thermale Gradient sich im Premesozoikum des Kasba-Tadla-Beckens in Marokko vom Zentrum des Beckens aus nach Nordwesten, Südosten und Osten schnell vergrößert. Es ist sehr wohl möglich, daß das Ordovizium des Beckenzentrums noch flüssige und gasförmige Kohlenwasserstoffverbindungen abgibt.

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Résumé L'analyse palynologique de 12 sondages montre que le gradient métamorphique du pré-Mésozoïque dans le Basin du Kasba Tadla, au Maroc, augmente à partir du centre du Bassin vers le nordouest, le sudest et vers l'est. Il est possible que l'Ordovicien de la partie centrale du Bassin produise encore des hydrocarbures liquides et gaseux.

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12 , Kasba Tadla -, - . , .

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The authors gratefully acknowledge support of this project through Grant GF-32510-X from the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.     

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

pT-effects of Pleistocene glacial periods on permafrost,gas hydrate stability zones and reservoir of the Mittelplate oil field,northern Germany

During the past two million years low surface temperatures as well as episodically advancing ice sheets from Scandinavia acted on the subsurface pT-regime of northern Germany. Their likely effects on the petroleum system of Schleswig-Holstein were investigated. For the entire Quaternary mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was reconstructed at a resolution of 1000 years by calibrating oxygen isotope records from ODP-site 659 to the climate of northern Germany of the past 120 kyr. The resulting MAGT trend served as input to an ice sheet model and a permafrost model along a 2D section crossing the petroleum bearing south-western part of Schleswig-Holstein. Here advances and retreats of the Scandinavian ice sheet during Saalian and Elsterian glaciation Stages were reconstructed. Maximum ice thicknesses of up to 1700 m and up to 20 periods of regional permafrost in northern Germany were reconstructed for the past 1.25 million years. Based on a basal heat flow of 50 mW/m² permafrost thicknesses exceeded 100 m during most of these periods, temporarily extending down to depths of more than 300 m. Favourable surface temperatures and long durations of cold periods provided favourable conditions for onshore gas hydrate stability zones at Mittelplate. Implementing these glacial dynamics into 2D basin modelling (PetroMod, IES, Aachen, Germany) of the Mittelplate oil field reveals five phases of gas hydrate stability at depths down to 750 m. The latest of these events occurred during the Weichselian about 20 kyr ago. The effect of the ice sheets on pore pressure in the subsurface strongly depends on the hydraulic boundary conditions at the ice base (e.g. frozen vs. temperate ice sheet base). Excess pore pressure in the reservoir of more than 10 MPa during ice overriding is possible and probable. The calculated temperature effect of the Pleistocene cooling on the Mittelplate reservoir is in the range of 3–7 °C. Even today temperature in the reservoir is still lowered by about 4 °C in comparison to pre-Pleistocene times. Despite the fact that a significant influence of glacial effects on petroleum generation can be ruled out at Mittelplate, we state that pT-effects in reservoirs related to glacial processes in formerly glaciated areas have been underestimated in the past.     

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

The way forward with ecosystem-based management in tropical contexts: Reconciling with existing management systems

This paper discusses some of the challenges and opportunities that can arise when implementing ecosystem-based management (EBM) in tropical nations. EBM creates a new series of challenges, problems, and opportunities that must be considered in light of existing governance and management frameworks in a local context. The paper presents five case studies from different parts of the tropical world, including Oceania, insular and continental Southeast Asia, East Africa, and the Caribbean, which illustrate that the implementation of EBM in watershed and marine ecosystems offers a new series of challenges and opportunities for its inclusion with existing forms of environmental governance and management. The paper suggests that EBM is best thought of as an expansion of customary management (CM) and integrated coastal management (ICM), rather than a paradigm shift, and that it has certain benefits that are worth integrating into existing systems when possible. The paper concludes that the cultural and institutional context of CM as well as the experience, technical skills, and legal basis that serve ICM programs are logical platforms from which to build EBM programs. Some guidelines for creating hybrid management regimes are suggested. In sum, declining marine species and ecosystems require urgent action, necessitating utilization of existing paradigms such as ICM and CM as a foundation for building EBM.     

Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

The constant threat from landslides in the northeastern part of Istria, Croatia, calls for the need to apply accurate and reliable methods in landslide hazard assessment in order to prevent landslide damage and to set an early warning system if necessary. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment enable optimal area management and regional urban planning. The study area is in the northeastern and central part of the Istrian Peninsula, well known as an area of frequent, small and shallow slope instability phenomena. Landslide susceptibility assessment in the area around the city of Buzet was performed using a deterministic landslide susceptibility model in the LS-RAPID software. LS-RAPID was developed to analyze stability at one single location, but the performed analysis has shown that LS-RAPID can be used as a powerful tool in landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment on regional scale. The objective of this paper is to establish the influence of the runout potential on the enlargement of the landslide-susceptible zones, due to expansion of the failure area around the initial failure zone. Performed analysis of rainfall return periods shows the frequency of landslide occurrence and provides the possible correlation with the time component of landslide hazard in the area.     

Time variations in teleseismic reisduals prior to the magnitude 5.1 Bear Valley earthquake of February 24, 1972

Summary Teleseismic arrivals for large earthquakes occurring in the Circum-Pacific seismic source regions have been analysed forP-velocity variations prior to the February 24, 1972, Bear Valley earthquake at several stations in the vicinity of Bear Valley, California. The teleseismic arrivals have been analysed by the method of two-station residuals and corrected for observed azimuthal variations. The data covers the time period of July, 1971, through April, 1972, and suggests that during part of January, 1972, aP-velocity anomaly occurred beneath station BVL 2 km from the epicenter of the magnitude 5.1 Bear Valley event. A maximum vertical travel time delay of 0.15 seconds is observed. No other anomalous behavior associated with this event is suggested by the data for the other stations ranging from 7 to 19 km from the event's epicenter. These results support an anomalous zone of limited size with a maximum horizontal extent of less than 5 km perpendicular and about 10 km parallel to the San Andreas fault relative to the epicenter and confined within a 5 to 10 km portion of the uppermost crust. Also aP-velocity delay for waves travelling essentially along the intermediate stress axis would imply in this case that theP-velocity anomaly is caused by a bulk modulus mechanism such as that proposed by the dilatancy-fluid flow theory.     

Quasi-linear relaxation of electrons interacting with an inhomogeneous distribution of Langmuir waves

Quasi-linear theory, describing the diffusion of electrons in velocity space due to resonant interaction with Langmuir waves, is generalized to treat the case where the waves are distributed inhomogeneously (in clumps). The method used is a generalization of an approach developed by Morales and Lee (1974) to treat the interaction of electrons with a distribution of solitons. It is shown that quasi-linear theory, specifically the diffusion of electrons in velocity space due to resonant interaction with Langmuir waves, applies irrespective of how the waves are distributed in space, provided that an electron has multiple encounters with clumps of Langmuir waves, and that the evolution of the distribution of electrons is considered only on a time-scale long compared with the time between such encounters. This generalization of quasi-linear theory is of relevance to type III solar radio bursts, where the Langmuir waves are known to be distributed inhomogeneously, and yet the electron distribution is consistent with that expected from a balance between ballistic effects and quasi-linear relaxation.