Influence of geometrical variations on morphodynamic equilibria in short tidal basins

Ocean Dynamics - The existence of cross-sectionally averaged morphodynamic equilibria of tidal inlets is investigated, using a cross-sectionally averaged model, and their sensitivity to variations...     

A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador

We present a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador), a quiescent but active stratovolcano known for its highly explosive behaviour. First, we developed a set of possible eruptive scenarios based on thorough field investigations, literature studies and using the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database. Five eruption scenarios were identified, including two based on large pre-historical sub-Plinian/Plinian eruptions with eruptive parameters constrained from field investigations (One Eruption Scenario; OES) and three Eruption Range Scenarios (ERS) based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) classification, for which eruptive parameters (i.e. erupted volume, plume height and median grainsize) were stochastically sampled within boundaries defined by VEI 3, 4 and 5. Second, the modelling was performed using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2 in combination with wind profiles from the NOAA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 database. We performed 1,000 runs for each eruption scenario, stochastically sampling a wind profile (OES and ERS) and a set of eruptive parameters (ERS only) at each run. Using the conditional probabilities of occurrence of eruption of VEI 3, 4 and 5 calculated from the GVP catalogue, we assessed the probability of tephra accumulation in a given time window. Based on the GVP database, a simple Poisson model shows that an eruption of VEI???3 has a 36?% probability of occurrence in the next 10?years. Finally, the hazard assessment was compiled based on three different outputs, including (i) probability maps for a given tephra accumulation, (ii) isomass maps for a given probability value and (iii) hazard curves for a given location. We conclude that the area west of Cotopaxi is exposed to light to severe tephra fallout for the smallest eruption magnitude considered (i.e. VEI 3). This area comprises a main communication axis (Panamerican Highway) topographically constrained at the bottom of the Interandean Valley, as well as the capital Quito and the town of Latacunga. In a companion paper, Biass et?al. (this volume) propose a method for a rapid risk assessment for tephra fallout using global and easily accessible data and the hazard assessment described here.     

Is X‐ray core scanning non‐destructive? Assessing the implications for optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sediments

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating is widely used to date clastic deposits, including those collected by coring. X‐ray scanning of cores has become popular because of the rapidly acquired, high‐resolution information it gives about optical, radiographic and elemental variations. Additionally, X‐ray scanning is widely viewed as a non‐destructive method. However, such instruments use an intense X‐ray beam that irradiates the split core to enable both X‐radiographic and X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis. This irradiation will influence the optically stimulated luminescence signal in the sediments. This study determines the radiation dose delivered to sediments in a core during an X‐ray scan, and assesses the implications for studies wishing to combine X‐ray scanning and OSL dating. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainable Capture: Concepts for Managing Stream‐Aquifer Systems

Most surface water bodies (i.e., streams, lakes, etc.) are connected to the groundwater system to some degree so that changes to surface water bodies (either diversions or importations) can change flows in aquifer systems, and pumping from an aquifer can reduce discharge to, or induce additional recharge from streams, springs, and lakes. The timescales of these interactions are often very long (decades), making sustainable management of these systems difficult if relying only on observations of system responses. Instead, management scenarios are often analyzed based on numerical modeling. In this paper we propose a framework and metrics that can be used to relate the Theis concepts of capture to sustainable measures of stream‐aquifer systems. We introduce four concepts: Sustainable Capture Fractions, Sustainable Capture Thresholds, Capture Efficiency, and Sustainable Groundwater Storage that can be used as the basis for developing metrics for sustainable management of stream‐aquifer systems. We demonstrate their utility on a hypothetical stream‐aquifer system where pumping captures both streamflow and discharge to phreatophytes at different amounts based on pumping location. In particular, Capture Efficiency (CE) can be easily understood by both scientists and non‐scientist alike, and readily identifies vulnerabilities to sustainable stream‐aquifer management when its value exceeds 100%.     

A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment

In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ??9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoes.     

Testing the use of feldspars for optical dating of hurricane overwash deposits

The geological record preserved in coastal salt marshes provides an opportunity to determine past hurricane activity during the Late Holocene in New England, USA. High precision dating is important to correlate overwash sand layers associated with hurricane strikes between different sites along the coastline. Three different optical dating methods have been tested and compared with independent age control; i) optically stimulated luminescence from quartz, ii) infrared stimulated luminescence from K-feldspar, and iii) a subtraction method.Quartz and K-feldspar dating results for three samples in a core from Round Hill Beach Marsh are in stratigraphic order and they are consistent within errors with radiocarbon ages and with each other. Subtraction dating results agreed with the quartz and K-feldspar ages for two of the three samples, but the subtraction age of the youngest sample gave an age underestimate. Replicate equivalent dose values from quartz showed a larger variation than those from feldspars, and this resulted in larger errors for the quartz and subtraction ages than those based on feldspars. K-feldspar yields the most precise optical ages, but is complicated by the need to correct for anomalous fading. Both quartz and K-feldspar are suitable for optical dating of hurricane overwash deposits in New England.     

Variability of nutrients and phytoplankton primary production in a shallow macrotidal coastal ecosystem (Arcachon Bay,France)

Seasonal and spatial variations of phytoplankton primary production were studied using a high frequency sampling strategy in the external (ENW) and internal (INW) part of Arcachon Bay, during 2002 and 2003. In order to better assess the availability of nutrients and their relationship with phytoplankton primary production, nutrient variability was studied in relation to environmental conditions and phytoplankton production. During winter, when primary production rates were the lowest, nutrient concentrations were maximal but did not show excessive levels compared to highly urbanised areas. Seasonal and spatial variations of nutrient concentrations (especially DIN-nitrate + nitrite + ammonium- and Si) were largely influenced by Leyre River loads coupled with high tidal exchange with the Atlantic Ocean creating a nutrient gradient between the INW and ENW. By February, diatom growth leads to an early severe nutrient depletion in the entire bay. Examination of nutrient ratios showed that the potential limiting nutrient during spring was P in 2003, and Si in 2002. During summer 2003, N and Si concentrations reached their lowest values, and nutrient ratios revealed a N-deficient environment, more pronounced in the INW. The high Si:N ratios during this period might be explained by (1) important N-uptake by all autotroph communities and (2) benthic-pelagic coupling with high Si regeneration. This study shows that nutrient levels in Arcachon Bay seem to play an important role in the control of phytoplankton primary production rates during the productive period and explain their spatial, seasonal and inter-annual variability. Our estimates of annual integrated phytoplankton primary production (103 g C m⁻² y⁻¹) place this bay within the low to moderate phytoplankton primary production systems.     

Direct 40Ar/39Ar K‐feldspar dating of Late Permian—Early Triassic brittle faulting in northern Norway

While the offshore post‐Caledonian extensional history of the north Norwegian passive margin is well constrained, the tectonic relationship between onshore and offshore regions is less clear because of limited age constraints on the timing of rifting onshore. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of K‐feldspar from hydrothermally altered fault rocks in a Precambrian gneiss complex in northern Norway was used to study the timing of extensional faulting onshore. In addition, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of K‐feldspar from the host rock provided insight into the regional rock cooling history prior to brittle deformation. Results indicated a dominant Late Permian–Early Triassic (~265–244 Ma) faulting event and found no evidence for later reactivation, which has been documented offshore. The region cooled to below the closure temperature for ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar K‐feldspar in the Carboniferous to Early Permian, prior to the main brittle faulting event. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of fault zone K‐feldspar products provided a means to date brittle faulting events.     

Impact of partial steps and momentum advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution

Series of sensitivity tests were performed with a z-coordinate, global eddy-permitting (1/4°) ocean/sea-ice model (the ORCA-R025 model configuration developed for the DRAKKAR project) to carefully evaluate the impact of recent state-of-the-art numerical schemes on model solutions. The combination of an energy–enstrophy conserving (EEN) scheme for momentum advection with a partial step (PS) representation of the bottom topography yields significant improvements in the mean circulation. Well known biases in the representation of western boundary currents, such as in the Atlantic the detachment of the Gulf Stream, the path of the North Atlantic Current, the location of the Confluence, and the strength of the Zapiola Eddy in the south Atlantic, are partly corrected. Similar improvements are found in the Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans, and characteristics of the mean flow are generally much closer to observations. Comparisons with other state-of-the-art models show that the ORCA-R025 configuration generally performs better at similar resolution. In addition, the model solution is often comparable to solutions obtained at 1/6 or 1/10° resolution in some aspects concerning mean flow patterns and distribution of eddy kinetic energy. Although the reasons for these improvements are not analyzed in detail in this paper, evidence is shown that the combination of EEN with PS reduces numerical noise near the bottom, which is likely to affect current–topography interactions in a systematic way. We conclude that significant corrections of the mean biases presently seen in general circulation model solutions at eddy-permitting resolution can still be expected from the development of numerical methods, which represent an alternative to increasing resolution.