Unusual Climate in Northwest Europe During the Period 1730 to 1745 Based on Instrumental and Documentary Data

This study focuses on one of the most interesting times of the early instrumental period in northwest Europe (from 1730–1745) attempting to place the extremely cold year of 1740 and the unusual warmth of the 1730s decade in a longer context. The similarity of the features in the few long (and independent) instrumental records together with extensive documentary evidence clearly indicates that remarkable climatic changes occurred rapidly in this period. We use unpublished subjective circulation charts developed by the late Hubert Lamb, to assist in understanding the course of events, particularly during the extreme year of 1740 and the four subsequent years. We also compare these subjective charts with others recently developed using more objective modern reconstruction techniques. Apart from evidence of a reduction in the number of explosive volcanic eruptions following the 1690s, it is difficult to explain the changes in terms of our knowledge of the possible factors that have influenced this region during the 19th and 20th centuries. The study, therefore, highlights how estimates of natural climatic variability in this region based on more recent data may not fully encompass the possible known range.     

European Tree Rings and Climate in the 16th Century

We present a selective review of tree-ring variability and inferred climate changes in Europe during the 16th century. The dendroclimatological evidence is assessed within the context of the last 500 years and some interpretational problems are discussed. The tree-ring evidence is compared with various non-dendroclimatic evidence. The body of evidence shows that a large region of mid and northern Europe experienced a sharp cooling at around 1570/80 that, at least in the north, marked a shift towards a prolonged period of cool conditions. This region had its southern boundary in the Alps and there is little evidence for a major cooling in southern Europe.     

Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model

 The realism of the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate model (HadCM2) is evaluated in terms of its simulation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major natural mode of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere that is currently the subject of considerable scientific interest. During 1400 y of a control integration with present-day radiative forcing levels, HadCM2 exhibits a realistic NAO associated with spatial patterns of sea level pressure, synoptic activity, temperature and precipitation anomalies that are very similar to those observed. Spatially, the main model deficiency is that the simulated NAO has a teleconnection with the North Pacific that is stronger than observed. In a temporal sense the simulation is compatible with the observations if the recent observed trend (from low values in the 1960s to high values in the early 1990s) in the winter NAO index (the pressure difference between Gibraltar and Iceland) is ignored. This recent trend is, however, outside the range of variability simulated by the control integration of HadCM2, implying that either the model is deficient or that external forcing is responsible for the variation. It is shown, by analysing two ensembles, each of four HadCM2 integrations that were forced with historic and possible future changes in greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol concentrations, that a small part of the recent observed variation may be a result of anthropogenic forcing. If so, then the HadCM2 experiments indicate that the anthropogenic effect should reverse early next century, weakening the winter pressure gradient between Gibraltar and Iceland. Even combining this anthropogenic forcing and internal variability cannot explain all of the recent observed variations, indicating either some model deficiency or that some other external forcing is partly responsible. Received: 20 August 1998 / Accepted: 12 May 1999     

Sensitivity of climate response to variations in freshwater hosing location

In a recent intercomparison of the response of general circulation models (GCMs) to high-latitude freshwater forcing (Stouffer et al., J Climate 19(8):1365–1387, 2006), a number of the GCMs investigated showed a localised warming response in the high-latitude North Atlantic, as opposed to the cooling that the other models showed. We investigated the causes for this warming by testing the sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to variations in freshwater forcing location, and then analysing in detail the causes of the warming. By analysing results from experiments with HadCM3, we are able to show that the high-latitude warming is independent of the exact location of the additional freshwater in the North Atlantic or Arctic Ocean basin. Instead, the addition of freshwater changes the circulation in the sub-polar gyre, which leads to enhanced advection of warm, saline, sub-surface water into the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Sea despite the overall slowdown of the MOC. This sub-surface water is brought to the surface by convection, where it leads to a strong warming of the surface waters and the overlying atmosphere.     

Fennoscandian summers from ad 500: temperature changes on short and long timescales

Quantitative estimates of 1480 years of summer temperatures in northern Fennoscandia have previously been derived from continuous treering records from northern Sweden. Here we show the results of spectral analyses of these data. Only a few peaks in the spectra are consistently significant when the data are analyzed over a number of sub-periods. Relatively timestable peaks are apparent at periods of 2.1, 2.5, 3.1, 3.6, 4.8, 32–33 and for a range between 55–100 years. These results offer no strong evidence for solar-related forcing of summer temperatures in these regions. Our previously published reconstruction was limited in its ability to represent long-timescale temperature change because of the method used to standardize the original tree-ring data. Here we employ an alternative standardization technique which enables us to capture temperature change on longer timescales. Considerable variance is now reconstructed on timescales of several centuries. In comparison with modern normals (1951–70) generally extended periods when cool conditions prevailed, prior to the start of the instrumental record, include 500–700, 790–870, 1110–1150, 1190–1360, 1570–1750 (A.D.) with the most significant cold troughs centred on about 660, 800, 1140, 1580–1620 and 1640. Predominantly warm conditions occurred in 720–790, 870–1110 and 1360–1570 with peaks of warmth around 750, 930, 990, 1060, 1090, 1160, 1410, 1430, 1760 and 1820.This paper was presented at Clima Locarno 90, the International Conference on Past and Present Climate Dynamics: Reconstruction of Rates of Change, held in Locarno, Switzerland, September 24 to 28, 1991, organized by the Swiss National Climate Program — ProClim, with support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences. Guest editor for these papers is Dr. K. Kelts Offprint requests to: KR Briffa     

Atmosphere and ocean dynamics: contributors to the European Little Ice Age?

The role of a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning and that of a persistently negative North Atlantic Oscillation in explaining the coldness of the European Little Ice Age (LIA) has been assessed in two sets of numerical experiments. These experiments are performed using an intermediate complexity climate model and a full complexity GCM. The reduction in the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) of ca. 25% is triggered by a conventional fresh-water hosing set-up. A persistently negative NAO winter circulation, at NAO-index value ?0.5, is imposed using recently developed data-assimilation techniques applicable on paleoclimatic timescales. The hosing experiments lead to a reduction in oceanic meridional heat transport and cooler sea-surface temperatures. Next to a direct cooling effect on European climate, the change in ocean surface temperatures feedback on the atmospheric circulation modifying European climate significantly. The data-assimilation experiments showed a reduction of winter temperatures over parts of Europe, but there is little persistence into the summer season. The output of all model experiments are compared to reconstructions of winter and summer temperature based on the available temperature data for the LIA period. This demonstrates that the hypothesis of a persistently negative NAO as an explanation for the European LIA does not hold. The hosing experiments do not clearly support the hypothesis that a reduction in the MOC is the primary driver of LIA climate change. However, a reduction in the Atlantic overturning might have been a cause of the European LIA climate, depending on whether there is a strong enough feedback on the atmospheric circulation.     

A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium

We present an annually resolved reconstruction of spring-summer precipitation variability in East Anglia, UK (52–53°N, 0–2°E) for the period AD 900–2009. A continuous regional network of 723 living (AD 1590–2009) and historical (AD 781–1790) oak (Quercus sp.) ring-width series has been constructed and shown to display significant sensitivity to precipitation variability during the March-July season. The existence of a coherent common growth signal is demonstrated in oaks growing across East Anglia, containing evidence of near-decadal aperiodic variability in precipitation throughout the last millennium. Positive correlations are established between oak growth and precipitation variability across a large region of northwest Europe, although climate-growth relationships appear time transgressive with correlations significantly weakening during the early twentieth century. Examination of the relationship between oak growth, precipitation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), reveals no evidence that the NAO plays any significant role in the control of precipitation or tree growth in this region. Using Regional Curve Standardisation to preserve evidence of low-frequency growth variability in the East Anglian oak chronology, we produce a millennial length reconstruction that is capable of explaining 32–35% of annual-to-decadal regional-scale precipitation variance during 1901–2009. The full length reconstruction indicates statistically significant anomalous dry conditions during AD 900–1100 and circa-1800. An apparent prolonged wetter phase is estimated for the twelfth and thirteen centuries, whilst precipitation fluctuates between wetter and drier phases at near centennial timescales throughout the fourteenth to seventeenth centuries. Above average precipitation reconstructed for the twenty-first century is comparable with that reproduced for the 1600s. The main estimated wet and dry phases reconstructed here appear largely coherent with an independent tree-ring reconstruction for southern-central England.     

High CO₂ and marine animal behaviour: potential mechanisms and ecological consequences

Exposure to pollution and environmental change can alter the behaviour of aquatic animals and here we review recent evidence that exposure to elevated CO? and reduced sea water pH alters the behaviour of tropical reef fish and hermit crabs. Three main routes through which behaviour might be altered are discussed; elevated metabolic load, 'info-disruption' and avoidance behaviour away from polluted locations. There is clear experimental evidence that exposure to high CO? disrupts the ability to find settlement sites and shelters, the ability to detect predators and the ability to detect prey and food. In marine vertebrates and marine crustaceans behavioural change appears to occur via info-disruption. In hermit crabs and other crustaceans impairment of performance capacities might also play a role. We discuss the implications for such behavioural changes in terms of potential impacts at the levels of population health and ecosystem services, and consider future directions for research.