The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of \(v_{S30}\) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02–3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.     

Doing community geography

Community Geography offers researchers, community groups, and students opportunities to engage in action oriented applied geographical research. Creating and sustaining these research programs can be challenging, programs can involve many partners from both academic and the community, have different goals and purposes, and utilize a variety of methods to perform research. In this paper we offer a framework of three primary overarching principles for implementing CG projects; (1) Who, (2) Why, and (3) How. (1) “Who” describes who is involved in CG, including researchers, community partners, academic institutions, (2) “Why” describes the justifications and benefits of taking this approach. (3) “How” explains how CG borrows methodologies from many disciplines within geography and beyond. Our examples are not exhaustive; rather, they serve as starting points to inspire researchers interested in CG.

     

Seismic hazard assessment for low-seismicity areas — Case study: Northern Germany

The problem of assessing seismic hazard in low-seismicity areas becomes obvious in many practical applications. A typical low-seismicity area, which experienced damaging earthquakes in historical times, is the North German Plain, for which a case study is presented. It is shown how seismic hazard assessments are influenced by different interpretations of historical key earthquakes, changes in b-value as well as variations of the upper bound magnitude assumed for the seismic source regions. The latter strongly influences the hazard results in the case of very low b-values for long return periods.     

Decoding a protracted zircon geochronological record in ultrahigh temperature granulite,and persistence of partial melting in the crust,Rogaland, Norway

This contribution evaluates the relation between protracted zircon geochronological signal and protracted crustal melting in the course of polyphase high to ultrahigh temperature (UHT; T?>?900 °C) granulite facies metamorphism. New U–Pb, oxygen isotope, trace element, ion imaging and cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging data in zircon are reported from five samples from Rogaland, South Norway. The data reveal that the spread of apparent age captured by zircon, between 1040 and 930 Ma, results both from open-system growth and closed-system post-crystallization disturbance. Post-crystallization disturbance is evidenced by inverse age zoning induced by solid-state recrystallization of metamict cores that received an alpha dose above 35 × 10¹⁷ α  g^?1. Zircon neocrystallization is documented by CL-dark domains displaying O isotope open-system behaviour. In UHT samples, O isotopic ratios are homogenous (δ¹⁸O = 8.91?±?0.08‰), pointing to high-temperature diffusion. Scanning ion imaging of these CL-dark domains did not reveal unsupported radiogenic Pb. The continuous geochronological signal retrieved from the CL-dark zircon in UHT samples is similar to that of monazite for the two recognized metamorphic phases (M1: 1040–990 Ma; M2: 940–930 Ma). A specific zircon-forming event is identified in the orthopyroxene and UHT zone with a probability peak at ca. 975 Ma, lasting until ca. 955 Ma. Coupling U–Pb geochronology and Ti-in-zircon thermometry provides firm evidence of protracted melting lasting up to 110 My (1040–930 Ma) in the UHT zone, 85 My (ca. 1040–955 Ma) in the orthopyroxene zone and some 40 My (ca. 1040–1000 Ma) in the regional basement. These results demonstrate the persistence of melt over long timescales in the crust, punctuated by two UHT incursions.     

Disturbance versus preservation of U–Th–Pb ages in monazite during fluid–rock interaction: textural, chemical and isotopic in situ study in microgranites (Velay Dome, France)

Monazite is extensively used to date crustal processes and is usually considered to be resistant to diffusive Pb loss. Nevertheless, fluid-assisted recrystallisation is known to be capable of resetting the monazite chronometer. This study focuses on chemical and isotopic disturbances in monazite grains from two microgranite intrusions in the French Central Massif (Charron and Montasset). Petrologic data and oxygen isotopes suggest that both intrusions have interacted with alkali-bearing hydrothermal-magmatic fluids. In the Charron intrusion, regardless of their textural location, monazite grains are sub-euhedral and cover a large domain of compositions. U–Pb chronometers yield a lower intercept age of 297 ± 4 Ma. An inherited component at 320 Ma is responsible for the scattering of the U–Th–Pb ages. The Montasset intrusion was later affected by an additional F-rich crustal fluid with crystallisation of Ca-REE-fluorocarbonates, fluorite, calcite and chloritisation. Pristine monazite is chemically homogeneous and displays ²⁰⁸Pb/²³²Th and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U concordant ages at 307 ± 2 Ma. By contrast, groundmass monazite shows dissolution-recrystallisation features associated with apatite and thorite precipitation (Th-silicate) and strong chemical reequilibration. ²⁰⁸Pb/²³²Th ages are disturbed and range between 270 and 690 Ma showing that the Th/Pb ratio is highly fractionated during the interaction with fluids. Apparent U–Pb ages are older due to common Pb incorporation yielding a lower intercept age at 312 ± 10 Ma, the age of the pristine monazite. These results show that F-rich fluids are responsible for Th mobility and incorporation of excess Pb, which thus strongly disturbed the U–Th–Pb chronometers in the monazite.     

Exhumation processes during post-collisional stage in the Variscan belt revealed by detailed 40Ar/39Ar study (Tanneron Massif, SE France)

Detailed ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology on single grains of muscovite was performed in the Variscan Tanneron Massif (SE France) to determine the precise timing of the post-collisional exhumation processes. Thirty-two plateau ages, obtained on metamorphic and magmatic rocks sampled along an east–west transect through the massif, vary from 302 ± 2 to 321 ± 2 Ma, and reveal a heterogeneous exhumation of the lower crust that lasted about 20 Ma during late Carboniferous. In the eastern part of the massif, the closure of the K–Ar isotopic system is at 311–315 Ma, whereas in the middle part of the massif it closes earlier at 317–321 Ma. These cooling paths are likely to be the result of differential exhumation processes of distinct crustal blocks controlled by a major ductile fault, the La Moure fault that separates both domains. In the western part of the massif, the ages decrease from 318 to 303 Ma approaching the Rouet granite, which provides the youngest age at 303.6 ± 1.2 Ma. This age distribution can be explained by the occurrence of a thermal structure spatially associated to the magmatic complex. These ages argue in favour of a cooling of the magmatic body at around 15 Ma after the country rocks in the western Tanneron. The emplacement of the Rouet granite in the core of an antiform is responsible for recrystallization and post-isotopic closure disturbances of the K–Ar chronometer in the muscovite from the host rocks. These new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages clearly outline that at least two different processes may contribute to the exhumation of the lower crust in the later stage of collision. During the first stage between 320 and 310 Ma, the differential motion of tectonic blocks limited by ductile shear zones controls the post-collisional exhumation. This event could be related to orogen parallel shearing associated with crustal-scale strike-slip faults and regional folding. The final exhumation stages at around 300 Ma take place within the tectonic doming associated to magmatic intrusions in the core of antiformal structures. Local ductile to brittle normal faulting is coeval to Upper Carboniferous intracontinental basins opening.     

Two successive phases of ultrahigh temperature metamorphism in Rogaland,S. Norway: Evidence from Y‐in‐monazite thermometry

In Rogaland, South Norway, a polycyclic granulite facies metamorphic domain surrounds the late‐Sveconorwegian anorthosite–mangerite–charnockite (AMC) plutonic complex. Integrated petrology, phase equilibria modelling, monazite microchemistry, Y‐in‐monazite thermometry, and monazite U–Th–Pb geochronology in eight samples, distributed across the apparent metamorphic field gradient, imply a sequence of two successive phases of ultrahigh temperature (UHT) metamorphism in the time window between 1,050 and 910 Ma. A first long‐lived metamorphic cycle (M1) between 1,045 ± 8 and 992 ± 11 Ma is recorded by monazite in all samples. This cycle is interpreted to represent prograde clockwise P–T path involving melt production in fertile protoliths and culminating in UHT conditions of ~6 kbar and 920°C. Y‐in‐monazite thermometry, in a residual garnet‐absent sapphirine–orthopyroxene granulite, provides critical evidence for average temperature of 931 and 917°C between 1,029 ± 9 and 1,006 ± 8 Ma. Metamorphism peaked after c. 20 Ma of crustal melting and melt extraction, probably supported by a protracted asthenospheric heat source following lithospheric mantle delamination. Between 990 and 940 Ma, slow conductive cooling to 750–800°C is characterized by monazite reactivity as opposed to silicate metastability. A second incursion (M2) to UHT conditions of ~3.5–5 kbar and 900–950°C, is recorded by Y‐rich monazite at 930 ± 6 Ma in an orthopyroxene–cordierite–hercynite gneiss and by an osumilite gneiss. This M2 metamorphism, typified by osumilite paragenesis, is related to the intrusion of the AMC plutonic complex at 931 ± 2 Ma. Thermal preconditioning of the crust during the first UHT metamorphism may explain the width of the aureole of contact metamorphism c. 75 Ma later, and also the rarity of osumilite‐bearing assemblages in general.     

Copper bioavailability and toxicity to Mytilus galloprovincialis in Shelter Island Yacht Basin,San Diego,CA

The bioavailability and toxicity of copper (Cu) in Shelter Island Yacht Basin (SIYB), San Diego, CA, USA, was assessed with simultaneous toxicological, chemical, and modeling approaches. Toxicological measurements included laboratory toxicity testing with Mytilus galloprovincialis (Mediterranean mussel) embryos added to both site water (ambient) and site water spiked with multiple Cu concentrations. Chemical assessment of ambient samples included total and dissolved Cu concentrations, and Cu complexation capacity measurements. Modeling was based on chemical speciation and predictions of bioavailability and toxicity using a marine Biotic Ligand Model (BLM). Cumulatively, these methods assessed the natural buffering capacity of Cu in SIYB during singular wet and dry season sampling events. Overall, the three approaches suggested negligible bioavailability, and isolated observed or predicted toxicity, despite an observed gradient of increasing Cu concentration, both horizontally and vertically within the water body, exceeding current water quality criteria for saltwater.