Characterising the vertical separation of shale-gas source rocks and aquifers across England and Wales (UK)

Shale gas is considered by many to have the potential to provide the UK with greater energy security, economic growth and jobs. However, development of a shale gas industry is highly contentious due to environmental concerns including the risk of groundwater pollution. Evidence suggests that the vertical separation between exploited shale units and aquifers is an important factor in the risk to groundwater from shale gas exploitation. A methodology is presented to assess the vertical separation between different pairs of aquifers and shales that are present across England and Wales. The application of the method is then demonstrated for two of these pairs—the Cretaceous Chalk Group aquifer and the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay Formation, and the Triassic sandstone aquifer and the Carboniferous Bowland Shale Formation. Challenges in defining what might be considered criteria for ‘safe separation’ between a shale gas formation and an overlying aquifer are discussed, in particular with respect to uncertainties in geological properties, aquifer extents and determination of socially acceptable risk levels. Modelled vertical separations suggest that the risk of aquifer contamination from shale exploration will vary greatly between shale–aquifer pairs and between regions and this will need to be considered carefully as part of the risk assessment and management for any shale gas development.     

Climate spectra and detecting climate change

Part of the debate over possible climate changes centers on the possibility that the changes observed over the previous century are natural in origin. This raises the question of how large a change could be expected as a result of natural variability. If the climate measurement of interest is modelled as a stationary (or related) Gaussian time series, this question can be answered in terms of (a) the way in which change is estimated, and (b) the spectrum of the time series. These computations are illustrated for 128 years of global temperature data using some simple measures of change and for a variety of possible temperature spectra. The results highlight the time scales on which it is important to know the magnitude of natural variability. The uncertainties in estimates of trend are most sensitive to fluctuations in the temperature series with periods from approximately 50 to 500 years. For some of the temperature spectra, it was found that the standard error of the least squares trend estimate was 3 times the standard error derived under the naïve assumption that the temperature series was uncorrelated. The observed trend differs from zero by more than 3 times the largest of the calculated standard errors, however, and is therefore highly significant.     

The proterozoic history of eastern Bolivia

About 100 000 km² of the previously unmapped Bolivian sector of the Central Brazil shield has been studied by “Proyecto Precámbrico”, an Anglo-Bolivian technical cooperation programme. The Lower Proterozoic is represented by the Lomas Maneches Granulite Group and the bulk of the Chiquitania Paragneiss Complex, which were formed during the Trans-Amazonic orogenic cycle (± 2000 Ma). The Middle Proterozoic spans the orogenic cycles of San Ignacio (± 2000-1300 Ma) and Sunsas (<1300-950 Ma). The San Ignacio cycle included the deposition of the San Ignacio Schist Group, now belts of pelitic schists with basic/ultrabasic sills, and the subsequent mobilisation of these and older rocks within a north-trending orogenic belt, accompanied by granitoid development. The Sunsas cycle began with the deposition of the molassic Sunsas Group and closed with the growth of a westnorthwest-trending orogenic belt, bordered to the north by a marginal zone and a stable craton, which was accompanied by granitoid phases and major basic/ultrabasic igneous activity. The close of the Sunsas orogeny marked the cratonization of the shield at about 950 Ma.Unmetamorphosed Upper Proterozoic and possibly Cambrian sediments on the southern and eastern flanks of the shield represent marine transgressions related to the intra-continental Braziliano orogenic cycle. East-trending dolerite dykes were probably intruded during this period within the shield.     

REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
GEOGRAPHY, ITS SCOPE AND SPIRIT. By J. O. M. Broek
GEOGRAPHY AS HUMAN ECOLOGY: METHODOLOGY BY EXAMPLE. Edited by S. R. Eyre and G. R. J. Jones
A PREFACE TO ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY. By H. H. McCarty and J. B. Lindberg
A PROLOGUE TO POPULATION GEOGRAPHY. By W. Zelinsky     

The Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields Associated with a Solar Flare

Solar flares occur due to the sudden release of energy stored in active-region magnetic fields. To date, the precursors to flaring are still not fully understood, although there is evidence that flaring is related to changes in the topology or complexity of an active-region’s magnetic field. Here, the evolution of the magnetic field in active region NOAA 10953 was examined using Hinode/SOT-SP data over a period of 12 hours leading up to and after a GOES B1.0 flare. A number of magnetic-field properties and low-order aspects of magnetic-field topology were extracted from two flux regions that exhibited increased Ca ii H emission during the flare. Pre-flare increases in vertical field strength, vertical current density, and inclination angle of ≈ 8° toward the vertical were observed in flux elements surrounding the primary sunspot. The vertical field strength and current density subsequently decreased in the post-flare state, with the inclination becoming more horizontal by ≈ 7°. This behavior of the field vector may provide a physical basis for future flare-forecasting efforts.     

Solar Flare Prediction Using Advanced Feature Extraction, Machine Learning, and Feature Selection

Novel machine-learning and feature-selection algorithms have been developed to study: i) the flare-prediction-capability of magnetic feature (MF) properties generated by the recently developed Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART); ii) SMART’s MF properties that are most significantly related to flare occurrence. Spatiotemporal association algorithms are developed to associate MFs with flares from April 1996 to December 2010 in order to differentiate flaring and non-flaring MFs and enable the application of machine-learning and feature-selection algorithms. A machine-learning algorithm is applied to the associated datasets to determine the flare-prediction-capability of all 21 SMART MF properties. The prediction performance is assessed using standard forecast-verification measures and compared with the prediction measures of one of the standard technologies for flare-prediction that is also based on machine-learning: Automated Solar Activity Prediction (ASAP). The comparison shows that the combination of SMART MFs with machine-learning has the potential to achieve more accurate flare-prediction than ASAP. Feature-selection algorithms are then applied to determine the MF properties that are most related to flare occurrence. It is found that a reduced set of six MF properties can achieve a similar degree of prediction accuracy as the full set of 21 SMART MF properties.     

Shallow geothermal regime in the Perth Metropolitan Area

Exploration of Perth's geothermal potential has been performed by the Western Australian Geothermal Centre of Excellence (WAGCoE). Detailed vertical temperature and gamma ray logging of 17 Western Australia Department of Water's (DoW) Artesian Monitoring (AM) wells was completed throughout the Perth Metropolitan Area (PMA). In addition, temperature logs from 53 DoW AM wells measured in the 1980s were digitised into LAS format. The logged data are available in the WAGCoE Data Catalogue.

Analysis of the gamma ray logs yielded the first estimates of radiogenic heat production in Perth Basin formations. Values by formation ranged between 0.24 and 1.065 μW m^?3. The temperature logs provide a picture of true formation temperatures within shallow sediments in the Perth Basin. A three-dimensional model of the temperature distribution was used to produce maps of temperature at depth and on the top of the Yarragadee aquifer.

The temperature data were interpreted with a one-dimensional conductive heat model. Significant differences between the model and the observations was indicative of heat moving via non-conductive mechanisms, such as advection or convection. Evidence of non-conductive or advective heat flow is demonstrated in most formations in the region, with significant effects in the aquifers. Average conductive geothermal gradients range from 13°C km^?1 to 39°C km^?1, with sandstone formations exhibiting average gradients of approximately 25°C km^?1, while insulating silt/shale formations show higher average gradients of over 30°C km^?1.

To produce preliminary heat flow estimates, temperature gradients were combined with thermal conductivities measured elsewhere. The geometric mean heat flow estimates range between 64 mW m^?2 to 91 mW m^?2, with the standard deviation of the arithmetic mean heat flow ranging between 15 and 23 mW m^?2.

The study characterises the shallow temperature regime in the Perth Metropolitan Area, which is of direct relevance towards developing commercial geothermal projects.     

The Projects for Onboard Autonomy (PROBA2) Science Centre: Sun Watcher Using APS Detectors and Image Processing (SWAP) and Large-Yield Radiometer (LYRA) Science Operations and Data Products

The PROBA2 Science Centre (P2SC) is a small-scale science operations centre supporting the Sun observation instruments onboard PROBA2: the EUV imager Sun Watcher using APS detectors and image Processing (SWAP) and Large-Yield Radiometer (LYRA). PROBA2 is one of ESA’s small, low-cost Projects for Onboard Autonomy (PROBA) and part of ESA’s In-Orbit Technology Demonstration Programme. The P2SC is hosted at the Royal Observatory of Belgium, co-located with both Principal Investigator teams. The P2SC tasks cover science planning, instrument commanding, instrument monitoring, data processing, support of outreach activities, and distribution of science data products. PROBA missions aim for a high degree of autonomy at mission and system level, including the science operations centre. The autonomy and flexibility of the P2SC is reached by a set of web-based interfaces allowing the operators as well as the instrument teams to monitor quasi-continuously the status of the operations, allowing a quick reaction to solar events. In addition, several new concepts are implemented at instrument, spacecraft, and ground-segment levels allowing a high degree of flexibility in the operations of the instruments. This article explains the key concepts of the P2SC, emphasising the automation and the flexibility achieved in the commanding as well as the data-processing chain.     

The SWAP EUV Imaging Telescope Part I: Instrument Overview and Pre-Flight Testing

The Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) is an EUV solar telescope onboard ESA’s Project for Onboard Autonomy 2 (PROBA2) mission launched on 2 November 2009. SWAP has a spectral bandpass centered on 17.4 nm and provides images of the low solar corona over a 54×54 arcmin field-of-view with 3.2 arcsec pixels and an imaging cadence of about two minutes. SWAP is designed to monitor all space-weather-relevant events and features in the low solar corona. Given the limited resources of the PROBA2 microsatellite, the SWAP telescope is designed with various innovative technologies, including an off-axis optical design and a CMOS–APS detector. This article provides reference documentation for users of the SWAP image data.