The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in the West: Introduction and Overview

The results of an experimental `end to end' assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources in the western United States are described. The assessment focuses on the potential effects of climate change over the first half of the 21st century on the Columbia, Sacramento/San Joaquin, and Colorado river basins. The paper describes the methodology used for the assessment, and it summarizes the principal findings of the study. The strengths and weaknesses of this study are discussed, and suggestions are made for improving future climate change assessments.     

Geochemistry, Geochronology and Isotopic Evolution of the Chewore-Rufunsa Terrane, Southern Irumide Belt: a Mesoproterozoic Continental Margin Arc

The southern Irumide Belt (SIB) is an ENE–WSW-trending,late Mesoproterozoic orogenic belt located between the Congo–Tanzania–Bangweulu(CTB) and Kalahari cratons in central southern Africa. It isseparated from the late Mesoproterozoic Irumide Belt (IB) tothe north by Permo-Triassic graben, raising the possibilitythat the younger rifts reactivated a suture between the twobelts that has been rendered cryptic as a result of youngerKaroo cover. Both belts are dominated by calc-alkaline gneisses,but in addition the SIB contains abundant metavolcanic and metasedimentaryrocks. In this study we present detailed geochemical, isotopicand geochronological data for volcanic and plutonic lithologiesfrom the southernmost part of the SIB, the Chewore–RufunsaTerrane. This terrane comprises a wide variety of supracrustalto mid-crustal rocks that have major- and trace-element compositionssimilar to magmas formed in present-day subduction zones. Chondrite-normalizedrare earth element (REE) profiles and whole-rock Sm–Ndisotope compositions indicate that the parental supra-subductionmelts interacted with, and were contaminated by sialic continentalcrust, implying a continental-margin-arc setting. Secondaryionization mass spectrometry dating of magmatic zircon has yieldedcrystallization ages between c. 1095 and 1040 Ma, similar toelsewhere in the SIB. U–Pb dating and in situ Lu–Hfisotopic analyses of abundant xenocrystic zircon extracted fromthe late Mesoproterozoic granitoids indicate that the contaminantcontinental basement was principally Palaeoproterozoic in ageand had a juvenile isotopic signature at the time of its formation.These data are in contrast to those for the IB, which is characterizedby younger, c. 1020 Ma, calc-alkaline gneisses that formed bythe direct recycling of Archaean crust without significant additionof any juvenile material. We suggest that the SIB developedby the subduction of oceanic crust under the margin of an unnamedcontinental mass until ocean closure at c. 1040 Ma. Subsequentcollision between the SIB and the CTB margin led to the cessationof magmatism in the SIB and the initiation of compression andcrustal melting in the IB. KEY WORDS: geochemistry; Mesoproterozoic; SHRIMP zircon U–Pb dating; Sm–Nd isotopes; Southern Irumide Belt     

Transports of Nordic Seas water masses and excess SF6 through Fram Strait to the Arctic Ocean

To determine the exchanges between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait is one of the most important aspects, and one of the major challenges, in describing the circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean Sea. Especially the northward transport of Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW) from the Nordic Seas into the Arctic Ocean is little known. In the two-ship study of the circulation in the Nordic Seas, Arctic Ocean - 2002, the Swedish icebreaker Oden operated in the ice-covered areas in and north of Fram Strait and in the western margins of Greenland and Iceland seas, while RV Knorr of Woods Hole worked in the ice free part of the Nordic Seas. Here two hydrographic sections obtained by Oden, augmented by tracer and velocity measurements with Lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (LADCP), are examined. The first section, reaching from the Svalbard shelf across the Yermak Plateau, covers the region north of Svalbard where inflow to the Arctic Ocean takes place. The second, western, section spans the outflow area extending from west of the Yermak Plateau onto the Greenland shelf. Geostrophic and LADCP derived velocities are both used to estimate the exchanges of water masses between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. The geostrophic computations indicate a total flow of 3.6 Sv entering the Arctic on the eastern section. The southward flow on the western section is found to be 5.1 Sv. The total inflow to the Arctic Ocean obtained using the LADCP derived velocities is much larger, 13.6 Sv, and the southward transport on the western section is 13.7 Sv, equal to the northward transport north of Svalbard. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) originating from a tracer release experiment in the Greenland Sea in 1996 has become a marker for the circulation of AIW. From the geostrophic velocities we obtain 0.5 Sv and from the LADCP derived velocities 2.8 Sv of AIW flowing into the Arctic. The annual transport of SF₆ into the Arctic Ocean derived from geostrophy is 5 kg/year, which is of the same magnitude as the observed total annual transport into the North Atlantic, while the LADCP measurements (19 kg/year) imply that it is substantially larger. Little SF₆ was found on the western section, confirming the dominance of the Arctic Ocean water masses and indicating that the major recirculation in Fram Strait takes place farther to the south.     

Holographic interferometry study of the dissolution and diffusion of gypsum in water

We have performed holographic interferometry measurements of the dissolution of the (0 1 0) plane of a cleaved gypsum single crystal in pure water. These experiments have provided the value of the dissolution rate constant k of gypsum in water and the value of the interdiffusion coefficient D of its aqueous species in water. D is 1.0 × 10⁻⁹ m² s⁻¹, a value close to the theoretical value generally used in dissolution studies. k is 4 × 10⁻⁵ mol m⁻² s⁻¹. It directly characterizes the microscopic transfer rate at the solid-liquid interface, and is not an averaged value deduced from quantities measured far from the surface as in macroscopic dissolution experiments. It is found to be two times lower than the value obtained from macroscopic experiments.     

Cave volume computed on the behaviour of a blowing well (Tournai basin, W. Belgium)

It is difficult to measure karst volume but important to do so to assess risk of sinkhole formation. Measurements of airflow and atmospheric pressure pattern on a water well in buried karst of the overexploited Tournai hydrogeological basin (Belgium) show that inflow and outflow are highly correlated to atmospheric pressure and the differences of external and internal air densities. The volume of natural voids in connection with the well within the vadose zone can best be estimated by a calculation based on outflow under constant atmospheric pressure, which suggests a possible cavity volume of 700 000 m³ indicating likelihood of sinkhole formation.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Regional variations in skill with and without trend are compared with similarly analysed uninitialised experiments to separate the trend due to monotonically increasing forcings from fluctuations around the trend due to the ocean initial state and aerosol forcings. In temperature most of the skill in both multi-model ensembles comes from the externally forced trends. The rise of the global mean temperature is represented well in the initialised hindcasts, but variations around the trend show little skill beyond the first year due to the absence of volcanic aerosols in the hindcasts and the unpredictability of ENSO. The models have non-trivial skill in hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature beyond the trend. This skill is highest in the northern North Atlantic in initialised experiments and in the subtropical North Atlantic in uninitialised simulations. A similar result is found in the Pacific Ocean, although the signal is less clear. The uninitialised simulations have good skill beyond the trend in the western North Pacific. The initialised experiments show some skill in the decadal ENSO region in the eastern Pacific, in agreement with previous studies. However, the results in this study are not statistically significant (p?≈?0.1) by themselves. The initialised models also show some skill in forecasting 4-year mean Sahel rainfall at lead times of 1 and 5?years, in agreement with the observed teleconnection from the Atlantic Ocean. Again, the skill is not statistically significant (p?≈?0.2). Furthermore, uninitialised simulations that include volcanic aerosols have similar skill. It is therefore still an open question whether initialisation improves predictions of Sahel rainfall. We conclude that the main source of skill in forecasting temperature is the trend forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean initial state contributes to skill in some regions, but variations in boundary forcings such as aerosols are as important in decadal forecasting.