The Most Recent Cascadia Earthquake and Native American Narratives

The Cascadia subduction zone fault lies just off the Pacific coast of the USA and Canada. Although this fault has been seismically inactive over the written history of the Cascadia region, it has the potential to produce catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis. A variety of dating methods have been used to show that the most recent Cascadia earthquake occurred in 1700. Among these methods is an informal analysis of oral traditions handed down by Native American peoples that appear to refer to a major earthquake in this region. A central difficulty in analyzing these narratives quantitatively is their use of a generation and other qualitative measures of time that have no fixed lengths. Here, these narratives are analyzed under an explicit statistical model of the lengths of these measures. The results raise a question about the previous conclusion that these narratives all refer to the most recent Cascadia earthquake.

     

A note on the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle

This note points out a problem with the way in which extreme value distributions have been fit to the intensities of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle. An alternative method is described. This method is applied to observations of the three largest geomagnetic storms in solar cycles 11–22.