Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.     

Ionospheric techniques for the detection of transient X- and γ-ray bursts

Calculations are presented of the amount of excess ionization produced in the lower ionosphere by various transient X- and -ray bursts under different assumptions about the incident spectrum and the ion recombination rates in the ionosphere. These calculations show that the bursts will have only a small effect on the ionosphere, due in part to their short duration. An experiment has been started to measure the power spectrum of the phase and amplitude of the night-time fluctuations of a CW signal in order to determine if it is possible to improve the sensitivity of the ionospheric technique by using the transient nature of the bursts. Preliminary results from this experiment are presented.Paper presented at the COSPAR Symposium on Fast Transients in X- and Gamma-Rays, held at Varna, Bulgaria, 29–31 May, 1975.     

Relative effects of physical and biological processes on nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics in a shallow estuary after a storm event

The effects of advection, dispersion, and biological processes on nitrogen and phytoplankton dynamics after a storm event in December 2002 are investigated in an estuary located on the northern New South Wales coast, Australia. Salinity observations for 16 d after the storm are used to estimate hydrodynamic transports for a one-dimensional box model. A biological model with nitrogen limited phytoplankton growth, mussel grazing, and a phytoplankton mortality term is forced by the calculated transports. The model captured important aspects of the temporal and spatial dynamics of the bloom. A quantitative analysis of hydrodynamic and biological processes shows that increased phytoplankton biomass due to elevated nitrogen loads after the storm was not primarily regulated by advection or dispersion in spite of an increase in river flow from <1 to 928×10³ m³ d⁻¹. Of the dissolved nitrogen that entered the surface layer of the estuary in the 16 d following the storm event, the model estimated that 28% was lost through exchange with the ocean or bottom layers, while 15% was removed by the grazing of just one mussel species,Xenostrobus securis, on phytoplankton, and 50% was lost through other biological phytoplankton loss processes.X. securis grazing remained an important loss process even when the estimated biological parameters in the model were varied by factors of ± 2. The intertidal mangrove pneumatophore habitat ofX. securis allows filtering of the upper water column from the lateral boundaries when the water column is vertically stratified, exerting top-down control on phytoplankton biomass.     

Determining the trophic guilds of fishes and macroinvertebrates in a seagrass food web

We established trophic guilds of macroinvertebrate and fish taxa using correspondence analysis and a hierarchical clustering strategy for a seagrass food web in winter in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. To create the diet matrix, we characterized the trophic linkages of macroinvertebrate and fish taxa present inHalodule wrightii seagrass habitat areas within the St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge (Florida) using binary data, combining dietary links obtained from relevant literature for macroinvertebrates with stomach analysis of common fishes collected during January and February of 1994. Heirarchical average-linkage cluster analysis of the 73 taxa of fishes and macroinvertebrates in the diet matrix yielded 14 clusters with diet similarity ≥ 0.60. We then used correspondence analysis with three factors to jointly plot the coordinates of the consumers (identified by cluster membership) and of the 33 food sources. Correspondence analysis served as a visualization tool for assigning each taxon to one of eight trophic guilds: herbivores, detritivores, suspension feeders, omnivores, molluscivores, meiobenthos consumers, macrobenthos consumers and piscivores. These trophic groups, corss-classified with major taxonomic groups, were further used to develop consumer compartments in a network analysis model of carbon flow in this seagrass ecosystem. The method presented here should greatly improve the development of future network models of food webs by providing an objective procedure for aggregating trophic groups.     

Large-scale floodplain modelling

A two-dimensional horizontal finite element numerical model (RMA-2) was applied to a 24 km river channel-floodplain reach in West Germany. Initial results indicate that finite element schemes may successfully estimate inundation in large-scale floodplain applications. Potentially, the resulting detailed velocity vector distributions and identification of inundation zones throughout storm events could provide an insight into the present day sedimentary environment on the floodplain.     

Conservation as disturbance: Upheaval and livelihood diversification near Tarangire National Park,northern Tanzania

Recent studies have identified poverty reduction near parks and protected areas, findings that challenge an extensive literature on the social burdens associated with protected areas. These studies move the discussion on the social dynamics of conservation forward, however, they do not offer insight into the underlying mechanisms that shape household-level outcomes such as income and wealth. By focusing on protected areas as centers of uncertainty, upheaval, and disturbance, this study examines the character and incidence of livelihood diversification within communities near Tarangire National Park in northern Tanzania compared to communities far from the park. Livelihood diversification is well understood as a coping and/or risk mitigation strategy pursued in response to various types of shocks, and uncertainty more generally. This study draws on mixed methodologies to construct multivariate statistical models to estimate the effect of proximity to the park on measures of livelihood diversification. The results indicate that proximity to park is strongly correlated with livelihood diversification, suggesting that households near the park are adapting to opportunities and constraints and may be seeking to reduce variance in income and wealth in response to disturbances and uncertainty associated with the park.     

Effect of atmospheric pressure and temperature on entrapped gas content in peat

Entrapped biogenic gas in peat can greatly affect peatland biogeochemical and hydrological processes by altering volumetric water content, peat buoyancy, and ‘saturated’ hydraulic conductivity, and by generating over‐pressure zones. These over‐pressure zones further affect hydraulic gradients which influence water and nutrient flow direction and rate. The dynamics of entrapped gas are of global interest because the loss of this gas to the atmosphere via ebullition (bubbling) is likely the dominant transport mechanism of methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere from peatlands, which are the largest natural terrestrial source per annum of atmospheric CH₄. We investigated the relationship between atmospheric pressure and temperature on volumetric gas content (VGC) and CH₄ ebullition using a laboratory peat core incubation experiment. Peat cores were incubated at three temperatures (one core at 4 °C, three cores at 11 °C, and one core at 20 °C) in sealed PVC cylinders, instrumented to measure VGC, pore‐water CH₄ concentrations, and ebullition (volume and CH₄ concentrations). Ebullition events primarily occurred (71% of the time) during periods of falling atmospheric pressure. The duration of the drop in atmospheric pressure had a larger control on ebullition volume than the magnitude of the drop. VGC in the 20 °C core increased from the onset of the experiment and reached a fluctuating but time‐averaged constant level between experiment day 30 and 115. The change in VGC was low for the 11 °C cores for the initial period of the experiment but showed large increases when the growth chamber temperature increased to 20 °C due to a malfunction. The core maintained at 4 °C showed only a small increase in entrapped gas content throughout the experiment. The 20 °C core showed the largest increase in VGC. The increases in VGC occurred despite pore‐water concentrations of CH₄ being below the equilibrium solubility level. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Persistent organic pollutants and stable isotopes in biopsy samples (2004/2006) from Southern Resident killer whales

“Southern Resident” killer whales include three “pods” (J, K and L) that reside primarily in Puget Sound/Georgia Basin during the spring, summer and fall. This population was listed as “endangered” in the US and Canada following a 20% decline between 1996 and 2001. The current study, using blubber/epidermis biopsy samples, contributes contemporary information about potential factors (i.e., levels of pollutants or changes in diet) that could adversely affect Southern Residents. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes indicated J- and L-pod consumed prey from similar trophic levels in 2004/2006 and also showed no evidence for a large shift in the trophic level of prey consumed by L-pod between 1996 and 2004/2006. ∑PCBs decreased for Southern Residents biopsied in 2004/2006 compared to 1993–1995. Surprisingly, however, a three-year-old male whale (J39) had the highest concentrations of ∑PBDEs, ∑HCHs and HCB. POP ratio differences between J- and L-pod suggested that they occupy different ranges in winter.