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1.
Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches. 相似文献
2.
Bahram Saghafian 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2009,11(5):317-323
River low flow (LF) is an important hydrological characteristic used in management of the quantity and quality of water resources. A common way to transpose at-station low flow quantiles to ungaged locations involves development of regional multivariate regression models. In site selection studies of water control facilities, need arises to automate the mapping of LF characteristics onto the stream network in a continuous manner. This would allow estimation of LF at any desired ungaged location. A mapping algorithm is introduced that determines the value of regression model's independent variables (input components) over the drainage area of each stream pixel and calculates the flow (output). The mapping algorithm relies mainly on the digital elevation model (DEM) and its derivatives, such as flow direction and flow accumulation. Furthermore, the contribution of each independent variable of the regional model to the total flow may be plotted to represent the flow profiles along the streams. A case study involving LF mapping in rivers of Gilan province, Iran, where LF quantiles are required for issuing water withdrawal permits as well as maintaining water quality standards, is also described in the paper. Overall, the maps and profiles of flow statistics in the region of interest provide convenient visualization and assessment tools for water resource and environmental engineers. The transposition algorithm may also be applied in regional mapping of other flow characteristics such as flood or average flows. 相似文献
3.
Posterior probabilities of occurrence for Zn-Pb Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) mineralization were calculated based on evidence
maps derived from regional geology, Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, a digital elevation model and aeromagnetic data sets in the Borden
Basin of northern Baffin Island, Canada. The vector representation of geological contacts and fault traces were refined according
to their characteristics identified in Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, DEM, slope, aspect, and shaded relief data layers. Within the
study area, there is an association between the occurrence of MVT mineralization and proximity to the contact of platformal
carbonates and shale units of the adjacent geological formation. A spatial association also tends to exist between mineralization
and proximity to E-W and NW-SE trending faults. The relationships of known MVT occurrences with the geological features were
investigated by spatial statistical techniques to generate evidence maps. Supervised classification and filtering were applied
to Landsat-TM data to divide the Society Cliffs Formation into major stratigraphic subunits. Because iron oxides have been
observed at some of the MVT occurrences within the Borden Basin, Landsat-TM data band ratio (3/1) was calculated to highlight
the potential presence of iron-oxides as another evidence map. Processed Landsat-TM data and other derived geological evidence
maps provided useful indicators for identifying areas of potential MVT mineralization.
Weights of evidence and logistic regression were used independently to integrate and generate posterior probability maps showing
areas of potential mineralization based on all derived evidence maps. Results indicate that in spite of the lack of important
data sets such as stream or lake sediment geochemistry, Landsat-TM data and regional geological data can be useful for MVT
mineral-potential mapping. 相似文献
4.
5.
The complex stream bank profiles in alluvial channels and rivers that are formed after reaching equilibrium has been a popular topic of research for many geomorphologists and river engineers. The entropy theory has recently been successfully applied to this problem. However, the existing methods restrict the further application of the entropy parameter to determine the cross-section slope of the river banks. To solve this limitation, we introduce a novel approach in the extraction of the equation based on the calculation of the entropy parameter (λ) and the transverse slope of the bank profile at threshold channel conditions. The effects of different hydraulic and geometric parameters are evaluated on a variation of the entropy parameter. Sensitivity analysis on the parameters affecting the entropy parameter shows that the most effective parameter on the λ-slope multiplier is the maximum slope of the bank profile and the dimensionless lateral distance of the river banks. 相似文献
6.
The simple Lanczos method presented in a recent paper by the writers, with application to single vector loads, is extended to include a more general dynamic loading represented as a linear combination of k vectors (load patterns). The result is a set of orthogonal vectors that is used to transform the equations of motion to a banded form, the half-bandwidth of which becomes k + 1. When k is small relative to the number of equations, this approach provides for a very efficient time-stepping solution. 相似文献
7.
Neil Trentham & Bahram Mobasher 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,299(2):488-498
We present the K -band (2.2 μm) luminosity functions (LFs) of the X-ray-luminous clusters MS1054–0321 ( z = 0.823), MS0451–0305 ( z = 0.55), Abell 963 ( z = 0.206), Abell 665 ( z = 0.182) and Abell 1795 ( z = 0.063) down to absolute magnitudes M K = −20. Our measurements probe fainter absolute magnitudes than do any previous studies of the near-infrared LFs of clusters. All the clusters are found to have similar LFs within the errors, when the galaxy populations are evolved to redshift z = 0. It is known that the most massive bound systems in the Universe at all redshifts are X-ray-luminous clusters. Therefore, assuming that the clusters in our sample correspond to a single population seen at different redshifts, the results here imply that not only had the stars in present-day ellipticals in rich clusters formed by z = 0.8, but that they existed in as luminous galaxies then as they do today. Additionally, the clusters have K -band LFs which appear to be consistent with the K -band field LF in the range −24 < M K < −22, although the uncertainties in both the field and cluster samples are large. 相似文献
8.
Several models for simulation of water balance processes in semi-arid mountainous basins were developed by coupling different modules of existing water balance models (WBM). Snow accumulation and snowmelt rate relationships extracted from the McCabe-Markstrom, Guo, Rao-Al Wagdany and WASMOD-M WBMs, originally developed for basins with humid climate, were coupled with the Jazim WBM, primarily developed for arid basins. Karaj Basin, central Iran, with snowy autumn–winter and dry summer periods, was selected to assess model performance. The model parameters were optimized using a genetic algorithm (GA). All coupled models performed better than the non-modified (original) WBMs in the study basin. The coupled Jazim–McCabe-Markstrom model provided the best performance in simulating low and high monthly flows. It estimated the snowmelt runoff values more accurately than other proposed coupled models because the linear relationships used in the snow module of the McCabe-Markstrom model are more compatible with snow variations in the Karaj Basin. 相似文献
9.
Rainfall threshold (RT) method is one of the evolving flood forecasting approaches. When the cumulative rainfall depth for a given initial soil moisture condition intersects the threshold rainfall curve, the peak discharge is expected to be equal or greater than the threshold discharge for flooding at the target site. Besides the total rainfall depth, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall impacts the flood peak discharge and the time to peak. To revisit a previous study conducted by the authors, in which spatially independent rainfall pattern was assumed, the spatial distribution of rainfall was simulated following a Monte Carlo approach. The structure of the spatial dependence among sub‐watersheds' rainfalls was taken into account under three different scenarios, namely independent, bivariate copula (2copula) and multivariate Gaussian copula (MGC). For each set of generated random dimensionless rainfalls, the probabilistic RT curves were derived for dry moisture condition. Results were evaluated with both historical and simulated events. For the simulated events, threshold curves were assessed by means of categorical statistics, such as hit rate, false rate and critical success index (CSI). Results revealed that the best performance based on the CSI criterion corresponded to 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios as well as 90% curve in the independent scenario. The recognition of 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios is in agreement with our expectations that the mean probable curve should have the best performance. Moreover, the proposed inclusion of spatially dependent rainfall scenario improved the performance of RT curves by about 25% in comparison with the presumed spatially uniform rainfall scenario. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Meteorological drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs over various time scales and may cause significant economic, environmental and social damages. Three drought characteristics, namely duration, average severity and peak intensity, are important variables in water resources planning and decision making. This study presents a new method for construction of three-dimensional copulas to describe the joint distribution function of meteorological drought characteristics. Using the inference function for margins, the parameters for six types of copulas were tested to select the best-fitted copulas. According to the values of the log-likelihood function, Galambos, Frank and Clayton were the selected copula models to describe the dependence structure for pairs of duration–severity, severity–peak and duration–peak, respectively. Trivariate cumulative probability, conditional probability and drought return period were also investigated based on the derived copula-based joint distributions. The proposed model was evaluated over the observed data of a Qazvin synoptic station, and the results were compared with the empirical probabilities. For measuring the model accuracy, R 2, root mean square error (RMSE) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criteria were used. Results indicated that R 2, RMSE and NSE were equal to 0.91, 0.098 and 0.668, respectively, which demonstrate sufficient accuracy of the proposed model. Drought probabilistic characteristics can provide useful information for water resource planning and management. 相似文献