Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo,Egypt

The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m _b  = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is “what if this earthquake is repeated today.” In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that “the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times” in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety and collapse prevention in future earthquakes, a five-step road map has been purposed.     

Factors controlling mechanisms of groundwater salinization and hydrogeochemical processes in the Quaternary aquifer of the Eastern Nile Delta, Egypt

In this study, combining interpretations of conservative dissolved ions and environmental isotopes in water were used to investigate the main factors and mechanisms controlling groundwater salinization and hydrogeochemical processes in the Eastern Nile Delta, Egypt. Hydrogeochemical and isotopic study has been carried out for 61 water samples from the study area. Total dissolved solid (TDS) contents of groundwater are highly variable rising along flowpath from the south (410 mg/L) to the north (14,784 mg/L), implying significant deterioration and salinization of groundwater. Based on TDS and ionic ratios, groundwater samples were classified into three groups. In low-saline groups, water chemistry is greatly influenced by cation exchange, mineral dissolution/precipitation, anthropogenic pollutants and mixing with surface water. Whilst, in high-saline groups, water chemistry is affected by salt-water intrusion, reverse cation exchange and evaporation. The chemical constituents originating from saline water sources, reverse ion exchange and mineral dissolution are successfully differentiated using ionic delta and saturation index approaches. The δ¹⁸O–δ²H relationship plots on a typical evaporation line, suggesting potential evaporation of the recharging water prior to infiltration. Isotope evidence concludes that the groundwater have been considerably formed by mixing between depleted meteoric water recharged under different climatic conditions and recently infiltrating enriched surface water and excess of irrigation water. The δ¹⁸O data in conjunction with chloride concentrations provide firm evidence for impact of dissolution of marine-origin evaporite deposits, during past geologic periods, on groundwater salinity in the northern region. Moreover, the relation between ¹⁴C activities and Cl^? concentration confirms this hypothesis.     

Source parameters of the ML 4.1 earthquake of November 08, 2006, southeast Beni-Suef, northern Egypt

In the early morning hours on Wednesday November 08, 2006 at 04:32:10(GMT) a small earthquake of M_L 4.1 has occurred at southeast Beni-Suef, approximately 160 km SEE of Cairo, northern Egypt. The quake has been felt as far as Cairo and its surroundings while no casualties were reported. The instrumental epicentre is located at 28.57°N and 31.55°E. Seismic moment is 1.76 E14 Nm, corresponding to a moment magnitude M_w 3.5. Following a Brune model, the source radius is 0.3 km with an average dislocation of 1.8 cm and a 2.4 MPa stress drop. The source mechanism from a first motion fault plane solution shows a left-lateral strike-slip mechanism with a minor dip-slip component along fault NNW striking at 161°, dipping 52° to the west and rake −5°. Trend and plunging of the maximum and minimum principle axes P/T are 125°, 28°, 21°, and 23°, respectively. A comparison with the mechanism of the October, 1999 event shows similarities in faulting type and orientation of nodal planes.Eight small earthquakes (3.0  M_L < 5.0) were also recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) from the same region. We estimate the source parameters and fault mechanism solutions (FMS) for these earthquakes using displacement spectra and P-wave polarities, respectively. The obtained source parameters including seismic moments of 4.9 × 10¹²–5.04 × 10¹⁵ Nm, stress drops of 0.2–4.9 MPa and relative displacement of 0.1–9.1 cm. The azimuths of T-axes determined from FMS are oriented in NNE–SSW direction. This direction is consistent with the present-day stress field in Egypt and the last phase of stress field changes in the Late Pleistocene, as well as with recent GPS measurements.     

The Sinai subplate and tectonic evolution of the northern Red Sea region

Although the precise boundaries and kinematics of the Sinai subplate are still doubtful, it has a significant role in the tectonic evolution of the northern Red Sea region. On the basis of earthquake distribution, the Sinai region can be considered as a subplate partially separated from the African plate by the Suez rift. The relative motion between Africa, Sinai and Arabia is the main source generating the present-day earthquake activity in the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba regions.According to geological observations, the southern segment of the Dead Sea fault system can be characterized by a left-lateral displacement of about 107km since the Middle Miocene, in contrast to the northern segment where only 25 to 35km offset can be inferred. We think that along the southern segment the total displacement was 72km until the late Miocene (10Ma). The earthquake activity is strongly reduced along the northern segment of the Dead Sea fault segment. Therefore, we suggest that the northern part (Yammouneh fault) evolves through initial cracking of the crust due to build-up of stress since the Pliocene time (5Ma) and propagates northward into Lebanon and Syria. This last 5 million years is the period when the southern and northern segments became linked and formed a single fault system with a new displacement of 35km.According to the proposed model the predicted opening pole of the Red Sea is near 34.0oN, 22.0oE with an angle of total rotation of 3.4o since the early miocene, providing a 0.82cm/a opening rate in the northern Red Sea. We suggest that the Dead Sea strike-slip fault was active since Middle Miocene time (15Ma) with a slip rate of 0.72cm/a to provide a total displacement of about 107km. This strike slip motion occured about an Euler pole near 33.0oN, 21.0oE with a rotation angle of about 3.0o. It can be inferred from the proximity of the pole and angle of rotations for the Red Sea and Dead Sea fault that more than 85% of the motion has been accommodated on the Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea fault and less than 15% in the Gulf of Suez.This model predicts a normal extensional motion in the Gulf of Suez with a minor left-lateral strike-slip component. We expect the pole of this motion to be at 31.0oN, 29.0oE, offshore of Alamein city about 320 km west of the Nile Delta. The rate of motion through the last 15Ma (Middle Miocene) is about 0.1 cm/a and the angle of rotation is 0.9o. During this period the total opening of the Suez rift is 15 km while the rest of the motion (45 km) occured mainly through the first phase of the development before the Middle Miocene.     

2001 August earthquake swarm at Shadwan Island, Gulf of Suez, Egypt

The earthquake swarm that struck Shadwan Island at the entrance of the Gulf of Suez in 2001 August included 408 events. Almost all of these events (94 per cent) were microearthquakes and only 6 per cent had small measurable magnitudes  (5.0 > M _L≥ 3.0)  . Most of the earthquakes were weak and followed each other so closely in time that they could not be identified at more distant stations. The fault plane solutions of the strongest events of the swarm show almost identical focal mechanisms, predominately normal faulting with a significant sinistral strike-slip component for nodal planes trending NW–SE. A comparison with the mechanisms of the 1969 and 1972 events which took place 20 km north of the swarm epicentral region shows similarities in faulting type and orientation of nodal planes. The azimuths of T -axes determined from focal mechanisms in this study are oriented in the NNE–SSW direction. This direction is consistent with the present-day stress field derived from borehole breakouts in the southern Gulf of Suez and the last phase of stress field changes in the Late Pleistocene, as well as with recent GPS results.
The source parameters of the largest  ( M _L≥ 3.0)  events of the 2001 August Shadwan swarm have been estimated from the P -wave spectra of the Egyptian National Seismograph Network (ENSN). Averaging of the values obtained at different stations shows relatively similar source parameters, including a fault length of  0.65 ≤ L ≤ 2 km  , a seismic moment of  7.1 × 10¹²≤ Mo ≤ 3.0 × 10¹⁴ N m  and a stress drop of  0.4 ≤Δσ≤ 10  bar.     

Relative location and source mechanism of inland earthquakes in Northern Egypt

We have relocated 259 inland earthquakes in northern Egypt using the double-difference hypocenter technique. Among this dataset we are able to determine source mechanisms of 200 events using P-wave polarities and amplitude ratios as well. The studied earthquakes have been recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network from October 1997 to December 2006 with local magnitude (M_L) varies between 1.5 and 5.0. Three earthquake dislocations have been defined namely: Dahshour, southeast Beni-Suef, and Cairo-Suez district. Earthquake activities tend to occur in clusters along the first dislocation (Dahshour) however, relatively scattered along the second (southeast Beni-Suef) and the third (Cairo-Suez district) dislocations. At Dahshour dislocation three distinct clusters have been distinguished. Source mechanism solutions of Dahshour earthquakes displayed normal faulting with a strike-slip component to strike-slip faulting with a minor normal dip-slip component. Most of earthquake focal mechanism orientations are varying from NE-SW to NW-SE. The fault plane solutions of Beni-Suef earthquakes represented normal faulting with a strike-slip component. If the NNW-SSE striking plane has been chosen to be the actual fault plane, some solutions would indicated normal faulting with a sinistral strike-slip motion and other reflect normal faulting with a dextral strike-slip component. The fault plane solutions of Cairo-Suez district earthquakes are compatible with E-W to ENE-WSW striking normal fault with a dextral strike-slip motion.     

Genesis and soil environmental implications of intact in-situ rhizoliths in dunes of the Badain Jaran Desert,northwestern China

Acta Geochimica - Desert rhizoliths are generally found as weathered, broken and scattered samples on dune field surface, but rarely in-situ in their initial states buried under the soil of desert...     

Crustal structure of northern Egypt from joint inversion of receiver functions and surface wave dispersion velocities

In this study, we used a combined inversion of body wave receiver functions and surface wave dispersion measurements to provide constraints on the crustal structure of northern Egypt. The two techniques are complementary to each other: receiver functions (RFs) are sensitive to shear-wave velocity contrasts, while surface wave dispersion (SWD) measurements are sensitive to finite variations of shear-wave velocity with depth. A database of 122 teleseismic events digitally recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) stations has been used as well. To enhance the resulting RFs at each ENSN station, the H-k stacking method was applied. A joint inversion process between the resulting receiver functions and the surface wave dispersion curves was applied as well. We have produced three averaged velocity structure models for distinct geographic and tectonic provinces namely Sinai, eastern desert, and western desert from east to the west respectively. These models will deeply help in estimation the epicenter distance of earthquake, focal mechanism solutions, and earthquake hazard analysis in northern Egypt. An obvious image of the subsurface structure has been determined which shows that generally the crustal structure of northern Egypt consists of three layers covered with a sequence of sediments that differs in thickness from across the region except in the Sharm area where the sedimentary cover is absent. The obtained results indicate that crustal thickness differs from east to west and reaches its maximum value of about 36 km at Siwa station (SWA) in the western desert and its minimum value of about 28 km at Sharm station (SHR) of the southern tip of the Sinai Peninsula. The Vp/Vs ratio varies between 1.71 and 2.07 in northern Egypt. Generally, the high values (1.93) of (Vp/Vs) at SWA station may reflect the well-known rich aquifer with fully saturated sediments of the Swia Oasis in the Western Desert. Moreover, the highest value (2.07) of (Vp/Vs) at BNS station may be attributed to the widespread recently discovered hydrocarbon fields at the Beni-Suef Basin along the Eastern Desert. Finally, an integrated geophysical and hydrological study of the dimensions and physical properties of the aquifer and hydrocarbon fields at SWA and BNS stations to confirm if they are sufficient to produce the elevated Vp/Vs ratios or not become essential and highly recommended.