Filling gaps in time series of space-geodetic positioning

Several methods of time series analysis and forecasting require data at regular time intervals. But in space geodesy, most datasets are often full of gaps, resulting for example from hardware issue, modification of models, change of analysis strategy, and local geophysical phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to fill the gaps in time series of space-geodetic station positions, by the use of two different approaches: the iterative singular spectrum analysis (ISSA) and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN). In order to test the efficiency of the proposed methods to properly process missing data, we created synthetic gaps at random points in regular time series (i.e., time series without gaps) of Global Positioning System (GPS) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) station positions with data span longer than 4 years. For each analyzed time series, we created gaps (by removing successive points) of different lengths ranging from 1 to 52 gaps, and then, we filled these gaps by ISSA, GRNN, and other classical methods of interpolation such as nearest neighbor, linear, and cubic interpolations.The interpolation precision was evaluated by the technique of cross-validation which compares the estimated values with the original data. After several simulations on position time series with different lengths, we found that the ISSA technique provides better results in terms of root mean square error.     

The use of Artificial Neural Networks in the modeling of socioeconomic category of Integrated Water Resources Management (Case study: Saf-Saf River Basin, North East of Algeria)

This research work has an objective to determine the effective variables in socioeconomic category of Integrated Water Resources Management for Saf-Saf river basin characterized by fast growing demand of urban and rural populations and the demand of economic sectors including industry and agriculture. In this paper, the artificial neural network models were used to model and predict the relationship between water resources mobilization and socioeconomic variables in the Saf-Saf river basin. The study area chosen is Saf-Saf river basin and real data were collected from 30 municipalities for reference year 2010. The results indicate that the feed-forward multilayer perceptron models with back-propagation are useful tools to define and prioritize the most effective variable on water resources mobilization and use. The model evaluation shows that the correlation coefficients are more than 94 % for training, verification, and testing data. The model aims to link the water resources mobilization and driving forces variables with the objective to strengthen the Integrated Water Resources Management approach.     

A simultaneous analysis of gradual and abrupt changes in Canadian low streamflows

In most studies, trend detection is performed under the assumption of a monotonic trend. However, natural processes and, in particular, hydro‐climatic variables may not conform to this assumption. This study performs a simultaneous evaluation of gradual and abrupt changes in Canadian low streamflows using a modified Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and a Bayesian multiple change‐point detection model. Statistical analysis, using the whole record of observation (under a monotonic trend assumption), shows that winter and summer low flows are dominated by upward and downward trends, respectively. Overall, about 20% of low flows are characterized by significant trends, where ～80% of detected significant trends are upward (downward) for winter (summer) season. Change‐point analysis shows that over 50% of low‐flow time series experienced at least one abrupt change in mean or in direction of trend, of which ～50% occurred in 1980s with a mode in 1987. Analysis of segmented time series based on a common change‐point date indicates a reduced number of significant trends, which is attributed to first, the change in nonstationarity behaviour of low flows leading to less trend‐type changes in the last few decades; and second, the false detection of trends when the sample data are characterized by shifts in mean. Depending on whether the monotonic trend assumption holds, the on‐site and regional interpretation of results may vary (e.g. winter low flow) or even lead to contradictory conclusions (e.g. summer low flow). Trend analysis of last two decades of streamflows shows that (1) winter low flows are increasing in eastern Canada and southern British Columbia, whereas they are decreasing in western Canada; (2) summer low flows are increasing in central Canada, southern British Columbia and Newfoundland, whereas they are decreasing in Yukon and northern British Columbia and also in eastern Ontario and Quebec. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in groundwater levels and quality due to agricultural over-exploitation in an arid environment: the phreatic aquifer of the Souf oasis (Algerian Sahara)

Groundwater is a major source of supply for domestic and agricultural purposes, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we followed the variations in water levels in the Souf oasis in the Algerian Sahara by measuring depths to groundwater across 65 points during the period from 2010 to 2015. Additionally, electrical conductivity (EC) was measured for assessing variations in groundwater salinity in the same groundwater monitoring network over the same time interval. The results from these investigations indicated that there are significant and continuous declines in the groundwater level across all study areas throughout the period of investigation. This is especially the case in the northern part of the study area where the water table declined by up to 18.2 m in Ghamra in 2015. Additionally, this study has indicated that the rate of decline of groundwater levels has increased from 0.29 m/year as an average in 2011 to 2.37 m/year in 2015, where the situation has become alarming. As a consequence of this, the depth to groundwater now exceeds 2 m over more than 77% of the study area, and only about 17% of the study area now has a water table depth that lies within the optimal depth interval for extractive uses (between 1 and 2 m). This decline in groundwater levels has been accompanied by a significant increase in the electrical conductivity values (salinity) of this water, and there is a strong correlation between these variables (R > 0.99). This alarming situation has been caused by the continuous over-exploitation and unsustainable management of this limited resource, especially by the agricultural sector. For a long time, this critical situation led to the demise of the agricultural world heritage cultivation system (Ghout) due to the increasing salinity of groundwater. Two solutions are proposed to manage the effects of groundwater depletion in the area: firstly, rationalizing groundwater use through effective groundwater allocation management measures, and secondly by implementing the reuse of treated wastewater as an alternative water source for agricultural use. This latter measure could be in two ways: either by direct use in irrigation to relieve pressure on the phreatic aquifer, or by artificial recharge of the phreatic aquifer.     

Modelling the petroleum generation and migration of the third member of the Shahejie Formation (Es3) in the Banqiao Depression of Bohai Bay Basin,Eastern China

The mudstones in the third member of the Shahejie Formation (Es3) are the primary source rocks in the Banqiao Depression of Bohai Bay Basin. They are rich in organic matter with Total Organic Carbon (TOC) content up to 3.5%. The sandstones in the Es3 member are the deepest proven hydrocarbon reservoir rocks with measured porosity and permeability values ranging from 3.6% to 32.4% and from 0.01 md to 3283.7 md, respectively. One, two and three-dimensional basin modelling studies were performed to analyse the petroleum generation and migration history of the Es3 member in the Banqiao Depression based on the reconstruction of the burial, thermal and maturity history in order to evaluate the remaining potential of this petroleum province. The modelling results are calibrated with measured vitrinite reflectance (R_o), borehole temperatures and some drilling results of 63 wells in the study area. Calibration of the model with thermal maturity and borehole temperature data indicates that the present-day heat flow in the Banqiao Depression varies from 59.8 mW/m² to 61.7 mW/m² and the paleo-heat flow increased from 65 Ma to 50.4 Ma, reached a peak heat-flow values of approximately 75 mW/m² at 50.4 Ma and then decreased exponentially from 50.4 Ma to present-day. The source rocks of the Es3 member are presently in a stage of oil and condensate generation with maturity from 0.5% to 1.8% R_o and had maturity from 0.5% to 1.25% R_o at the end of the Dongying Formation (Ed) deposition (26 Ma). Oil generation (0.5% R_o) in the Es3 member began from about 37 Ma to 34 Ma and the peak hydrocarbon generation (1.0% R_o) occurred approximately from 30 Ma to 15 Ma. The modelled hydrocarbon expulsion evolution suggested that the timing of hydrocarbon expulsion from the Es3 member source rocks began from 31 Ma to 10 Ma with the peak hydrocarbon expulsion shortly after 26 Ma. Secondary petroleum migration pathways in the Es3 member of the Banqiao Depression are modelled based on the structure surfaces at 26 Ma and present-day, respectively. The migration history modelling results have accurately predicted the petroleum occurrences within the Es3 member of the Banqiao Depression based on the calibration with drilling results of 10 oil-producing wells, one well with oil shows and 52 dry holes. Six favorable zones of oil accumulations in the Es3 member of the Banqiao Depression are identified especially oil accumulation zones I and II due to their proximity to the generative kitchens, short oil migration distances and the presence of a powerful drive force.     

Experimental Study of Crushed Granular Materials by the Notion of Fractal Dimension in 2D and 3D

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The micro-texture of the aggregates of a pavement layer has a direct influence on their resistance. Whatever the position of these aggregates in a pavement...     

Design of a model blasting system to measure peak p-wave stress

Literature review information and model scale rock blasting tests have been utilized to study the effects of some blast and fragmentation parameters on peak p-wave stress. A method for modelling scaled blasting in sandstone blocks with dimensions 515×335×215 mm³ has been presented. The dynamic and static properties of the sandstone are given. The results from model blasting experiments instrumented with pressure gauges are discussed. It is also shown there exists a useful correlation between blast, fragmentation parameters and peak p-wave stress.     

Geochemical and qualitative assessment of groundwater of the High Mekerra watershed,NW Algeria

Groundwater constitutes the main source of water supply in the High Mekerra watershed of northwestern Algeria. This resource is currently under heavy pressures to meet the growing needs of drinking water and irrigation. This study assesses the geochemical characteristics of groundwater of the High Mekerra watershed at 21 points distributed across the two main aquifers (Ras El Ma and Mouley Slissen) in the region. Hydrochemical facies of Ras El Ma groundwater are dominantly MgCl and CaCl type, while those of Mouley Slissen groundwater are of CaHCO₃ type. Principal component analysis shows a strong correlation between groundwater mineralization and Ca²⁺, Na⁺, Cl^? and SO₄ ^2? ions stemming from the dissolution of carbonates, gypsum and anhydrite. Groundwater mineralization evolves from south to north. Geochemical modeling shows that the High Mekerra groundwater is saturated with respect to calcite and dolomite and undersaturated with respect to gypsum and anhydrite. Nitrate concentrations that exceed the WHO standard (50 mg L^?1) at several points are linked to the agro-pastoral activities in this region.     

Timimoun’s foggara (Algeria): an heritage in danger

Timimoun is located in the hyper-arid zone of the Sahara, with an annual rainfall not exceeding 100 mm/year. To fill the shortage of rainfall, the oasis has developed a traditional means for mobilization of the groundwater. In the foggara with this hydraulic system, oases have been developed throughout the region of Timimoun over ten centuries. Today, we witness the gradual disappearance of foggaras; we lose about one to two foggaras per year for over half a century. The discharge of the 250 functional foggaras shows a significant drop: 850 l/s in 1960 and 355 l/s in 2001, enough to irrigate 350 ha. The causes of declining foggaras are technical, social, and environmental. The surveys that we have led nearly with the population in the ksour during two missions in 2007 and 2008 in the oasis of Timimoun reveal that socio-economic problems (Heritage and depopulation) are common to both types of foggara (foggara of the Erg and foggara Albian). Environmental problems (silting and flooding of the galleries by wild plants) are the main causes of the disappearance of foggaras of Erg. Technical problems (collapse of tunnels) are mainly the causes of degradation to Albian’s foggaras. Attempts to introduce changes to foggaras are temporary solutions. The modern collection of water (pump and drilling) is gradually replacing the traditional hydraulic system.