Electrical analogy for modelling thermal regime and moisture distribution in sandy soils

The soil mass is subjected to temperature variation due to several human activities (viz. tanks storing heated fluids, buried cables and pipelines, air-conditioning ducts, disposal of nuclear and thermal power plant wastes etc.), which result in heat-induced migration of the moisture in it. Though several studies have been conducted in the past to investigate the mechanism of heat migration through the soil mass, a methodology for ‘real-time measurement of the variations in temperature, flux and moving moisture front, in tandem, with respect to space' has rarely been attempted. In this context, extensive laboratory investigations were conducted to measure real-time flux and temperature variations in the sandy soils, and the validation of results has been done by employing an equivalent electrical circuit programme, LTspice. Subsequently, a mathematical model PHITMDS (i.e. Prediction of Heat-Induced Temperature and Moisture Distribution in Soil) has been developed and its utility and efficacy, for predicting the depth-wise temperature and heat-induced moisture migration, due to evaporation, in terms of position of moving moisture front in the sandy soil has been critically discussed and demonstrated.     

Anisotropic Continuous-in-Scale Universal Multifractal Cascades: Simulation,Analysis and Correction Methods

Continuous-in-scale multifractal cascades has long been an attractive choice for mathematically modeling turbulent and turbulent-like geophysical fields. These fields are usually anisotropic as they are subject to both stratification and rotation, thereby questioning the isotropy assumption often made to model them. The self-affine and generalized scale invariance approaches to scaling are used here to introduce anisotropy in such models. These anisotropic simulations have (1) unresolved large-scale features and (2) statistics that deviate from the desired power-law scaling mainly in the small scales. The former issue is solved via nesting, whereas the latter is attempted to be overcome using singularity correction methods. While earlier studies have proposed isotropic correction methods, here they have been generalized to correct anisotropic simulations. These singularity corrections seem to improve the small-scale statistical properties of mildly anisotropic simulations; nesting, on the other hand, appears to enhance statistics over almost all scales even for strongly anisotropic simulations. Both the correction and nesting techniques lead to a reduction in computational time and memory usage suggesting that nested singularity-corrected cascades offer a better framework for quantitatively modeling the atmosphere, ocean, solid earth, and associated fields.     

A comparative study of soil erosion modelling by MMF,USLE and RUSLE

The quantitative assessment of spatial soil erosion is valuable information to control the erosion. The study area in a part of Narmada river in central India is selected. The main objective is to assess and compare the results obtained from three soil erosion models using GIS platform. Variation in the rate of erosion of the three models is compared considering varying slope, soil and land use of the area. Three models selected are Morgan–Morgan–Finney (MMF), Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). The best fit or the most reliable model for the study area is selected after validation with the observed sedimentation data. The results give –39.45%, –9.60% and 4.80% difference in the values of sedimentation by MMF, USLE and RUSLE, respectively, from the observed data. Finally, RUSLE model has been found to be most reliable for the study area.     

Influence of climatic teleconnections on the temporal isotopic variability as recorded in a firn core from the coastal Dronning Maud Land,East Antarctica

Ice and firn core studies provide one of the most valuable tools for understanding the past climate change. In order to evaluate the temporal isotopic variability recorded in ice and its relevance to environmental changes, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen were studied in a firn core from coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The annual δ ¹⁸O profile of the core shows a close relation to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The ENSO indices show significant correlation with the surface air temperatures and δ ¹⁸O values of this region during the austral summer season and support an additional influence related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The correlation between the combined ENSO-SAM index and the summer δ ¹⁸O record seems to have been caused through an atmospheric mechanism. Snow accumulation in this region illustrates a decreasing trend with opposite relationships with δ ¹⁸O data and surface air temperature prior and subsequent to the year 1997. A reorganization of the local water cycle is further indicated by the deuterium excess data showing a shift around 1997, consistent with a change in evaporation conditions. The present study thus illustrates the utility of ice-core studies in the reconstruction of past climate change and suggests possible influence of climatic teleconnections on the snow accumulation rates and isotopic profiles of snow in the coastal regions of east Antarctica.     

Probing Magnetic Fields with Square Kilometre Array and its Precursors

Origin of magnetic fields, its structure and effects on dynamical processes in stars to galaxies are not well understood. Lack of a direct probe has remained a problem for its study. The first phase of Square Kilometre Array (SKA-I), will have almost an order of magnitude higher sensitivity than the best existing radio telescope at GHz frequencies. In this contribution, we discuss specific science cases that are of interest to the Indian community concerned with astrophysical turbulence and magnetic fields. The SKA-I will allow observations of a large number of background sources with detectable polarization and measure their Faraday depths (FDs) through the Milky Way, other galaxies and their circum-galactic mediums. This will probe line-of-sight magnetic fields in these objects well and provide field configurations. Detailed comparison of observational data (e.g., pitch angles in spirals) with models which consider various processes giving rise to field amplification and maintenance (e.g., various types of dynamo models) will then be possible. Such observations will also provide the coherence scale of the fields and its random component through RM structure function. Measuring the random component is important to characterize turbulence in the medium. Observations of FDs with redshift will provide important information on magnetic field evolution as a function of redshift. The background sources could also be used to probe magnetic fields and its coherent scale in galaxy clusters and in bridges formed between interacting galaxies. Other than FDs, sensitive observations of synchrotron emission from galaxies will provide complimentary information on their magnetic field strengths in the sky plane. The core shift measurements of AGNs can provide more precise measurements of magnetic field in the sub parsec region near the black hole and its evolution. The low band of SKA-I will also be useful to study circularly polarized emission from Sun and comparing various models of field configurations with observations.     

Seasonal and Monthly Variation of Vertical Structure of Temperature,Salinity and Heat Flux of the Bay of Bengal

Seasonal and monthly variations of heat flux have been investigated in this study using the Modular Ocean Model of version 3 (MOM 3) simulations and 52 years Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products. These variations of the heat flux in different boxes of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in different depths show the different behavior of the boxes. It is seen that the model and SODA results are comparable. The basin shows north-south variation in the surface from winter to spring whereas there is east-west variation in the mixed layer throughout the year except winter. The remote effect caused by warm water penetration from Pacific Ocean through the Strait of Malacca and coastal Kelvin waves keeps the basin warm most of the year. This article addresses the mechanisms of the seasonal variation of the vertical structure of the temperature and heat flux components.     

Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.     

An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere?Cocean?Csea ice?Cland forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998?C2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious jumps in soil moisture between adjacent streams. Thirdly, there is an inconsistency in long-term sea ice extent variations over the Arctic regions between the CFSR and other observations with the CFSR showing smaller sea ice extent before 1997 and larger extent starting in 1997. These deficiencies may have impacts on the application of the CFSR for climate diagnoses and predictions. Relationships between surface heat fluxes and SST tendency and between SST and precipitation are analyzed and compared with observational estimates and other reanalyses. Global mean fields of surface heat and water fluxes together with radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are documented and presented over the entire globe, and for the ocean and land separately.