Hydraulic Conductivity Prediction of Saturated Sand-Bentonite Mixtures

In this paper, models have been developed to predict the hydraulic conductivity of the saturated bentonite and saturated sand-bentonite mixtures. For these models, free swell void ratio of the bentonite is required which can be obtained using a simple test. It was observed that hydraulic conductivity of the saturated bentonite and saturated sand-bentonite mixtures could be predicted within 5 or 1/5 times of the measured values for most of the cases.     

Solar transients disturbing the terrestrial magnetic environment at higher latitudes

Geomagnetic field variations during five major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 23 have been investigated in the present study. The SEP events of 1 October 2001, 4 November 2001, 22 November 2001, 21 April 2002 and 14 May 2005 have been selected to study the geomagnetic field variations at two high-latitude stations, Thule (77.5^° N, 69.2^° W) and Resolute Bay (74.4^° E, 94.5^° W) of the northern polar cap. We have used the GOES proton flux in seven different energy channels (0.8–4 MeV, 4–9 MeV, 9–15 MeV, 15–40 MeV, 40–80 MeV, 80–165 MeV, 165–500 MeV). All the proton events were associated with geoeffective or Earth directed CMEs that caused intense geomagnetic storms in response to geospace. We have taken high-latitude indices, AE and PC, under consideration and found fairly good correlation of these with the ground magnetic field records during the five proton events. The departures of the H component during the events were calculated from the quietest day of the month for each event and have been represented as ΔH _THL and ΔH _RES for Thule and Resolute Bay, respectively. The correspondence of spectral index, inferred from event integrated spectra, with ground magnetic signatures ΔH _THL and ΔH _RES along with Dst and PC indices have been brought out. From the correlation analysis we found a very strong correlation to exist between the geomagnetic field variation (ΔHs) and high-latitude indices AE and PC. To find the association of geomagnetic storm intensity with proton flux characteristics we derived the correspondence between the spectral indices and geomagnetic field variations (ΔHs) along with the Dst and AE index. We found a strong correlation (0.88) to exist between the spectral indices and ΔHs and also between spectral indices and AE and PC.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Recurrence in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is one of the most tsunamigenic regions of the world and recently experienced a mega-tsunami in the Sumatra region on 26 December 2004 (M _W 9.2 earthquake) with tsunami intensity I (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) equal to 4.5, causing heavy destruction of lives and property in the Indian Ocean rim countries. In this study, probabilities of occurrences of large tsunamis with tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 (average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m and H ≥ 5.66 m, respectively) during a specified time interval were calculated using three stochastic models, namely, Weibull, gamma and lognormal. Tsunami recurrence was calculated for the whole Indian Ocean and the special case of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region, excluding the 1945 Makran event from the main data set. For this purpose, a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalogue with I ≥ 2.0 during the period 1797–2006 was used. The tsunami hazard parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithm of likelihood function (ln L) was estimated and used to test the suitability of models in the examined region. The Weibull model was observed to be the most suitable model to estimate tsunami recurrence in the region. The sample mean intervals of occurrences of tsunamis with intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 were calculated for the observed data as well as for the Weibull, gamma and lognormal models. The estimated cumulative and conditional probabilities in the whole Indian Ocean region show recurrence periods of about 27–30 years (2033–2036) and 35–36 years (2039–2040) for tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, while it is about 31–35 years (2037–2041) and 41–42 years (2045–2046) for a tsunami of intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, in the ASJ region. A high probability (>0.9) of occurrence of large tsunamis with I ≥ 2.0 in the next 30–40 years in the Indian Ocean region was revealed.     

EFFECT OF PERPENDICULAR A.C. ELECTRIC FIELD ON THE OBLIQUE WHISTLER MODE INSTABILITY IN THE EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE

The elements of dielectric tensor and dispersion relation for obliquely propagating whistler waves with finite in an infinite magnetoplasma are obtained for a kappa distribution in the presence of perpendicular a.c. electric field. Integrals and modified plasma dispersion functions are reduced in power series form. Numerical calculations have been performed to obtain temporal growth rate and real frequencies of the plasma waves for magnetospheric plasma, using linear theory of dispersion relation. The effect and modification introduced by the perpendicular a.c. electric field on the temporal growth rates, real frequencies and resonance condition are discussed for kappa and Maxwellian distributions. Our results and their interpretation are compared with known whistler observations obtained by ground-based techniques and satellite observations.     

Secular variation of the poloidal magnetic field at the core–mantle boundary

A region of enhanced conductivity at the base of the mantle is modelled by an infinitesimally thin sheet of uniform effective conductance adjacent to the core–mantle boundary. Currents induced in this sheet by the temporally varying magnetic field produced by the geodynamo give rise to a discontinuity in the horizontal components of the poloidal magnetic field on crossing the sheet, while the radial component is continuous across the sheet. Treating the rest of the mantle as an insulator, the horizontal components of the poloidal magnetic field and their secular variation at the top of the core are determined from geomagnetic field, secular variation and secular acceleration models. It is seen that for an assumed effective conductance of the sheet of 10⁸  S, which may be not unrealistic, the changes produced in the horizontal components of the poloidal field at the top of the core are usually ≤10 per cent, but corrections to the secular variation in these components at the top of the core are typically 40 per cent, which is greater than the differences that exist between different secular variation models for the same epoch. Given the assumption that all the conductivity of the mantle is concentrated into a thin shell, the present method is not restricted to a weakly conducting mantle. Results obtained are compared with perturbation solutions.     

Monthly prediction of rainfall over India and its homogeneous zones during monsoon season: a supervised principal component regression approach on general circulation model products

A supervised principal component regression (SPCR) technique has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products for developing a monthly scale deterministic forecast of summer monsoon rainfall (June–July–August–September) for different homogeneous zones and India as a whole. The time series of the monthly observed rainfall as the predictand variable has been used from India Meteorological Department gridded (1°?×?1°) rainfall data. Lead 0 (forecast initialized in the same month) monthly products from GCMs are used as predictors. The sources of these GCMs are International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, National Center for Environmental Prediction, and Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology. The performance of SPCR technique is judged against simple ensemble mean of GCMs (EM) and it is found that over almost all the zones the SPCR model gives better skill than EM in June, August, and September months of monsoon. The SPCR technique is able to capture the year to year observed rainfall variability in terms of sign as well as the magnitude. The independent forecasts of 2007 and 2008 are also analyzed for different monsoon months (Jun–Sep) in homogeneous zones and country. Here, 1982–2006 have been considered as development year or training period. Results of the study suggest that the SPCR model is able to catch the observational rainfall over India as a whole in June, August, and September in 2007 and June, July, and August in 2008.     

On radiative forcing of sulphate aerosol produced from ion-promoted nucleation mechanisms in an atmospheric global model

A significant fraction of the total number of particles present in the atmosphere is formed by nucleation in the gas phase. Nucleation and the subsequent growth process influence both number concentration of particles and their size distribution besides chemical and optical properties of atmospheric aerosols. Sulphate aerosol nucleation mechanisms promoted by ions have been evaluated here in a tropospheric interactive chemistry-aerosol module for mass and number concentration in a global atmospheric model. The indirect radiative forcing of sulphate particles is assessed in this model; indirect radiative forcing is different for ion-induced (IIN) and ion-mediated (IMN) mechanisms. The indirect radiative forcing in 10-year simulation runs has been calculated as ?1.42?W/m² (IIN) and ?1.54?W/m² (IMN). The 5% emission of primary sulphate particles in simulations changes the indirect radiative forcing from ?1.42 to ?1.44?W/m² for IIN case, and from ?1.54 to ?1.55 W/m² for the IMN case. More precisely, owing to greater nucleation rates, IMN mechanisms produces greater cooling than the IIN mechanisms in the backdrop that both mechanisms produce almost identical distribution of CDNC in their pre-industrial runs. The inclusion of primary particles in simulations with IIN and IMN mechanisms increases both CDNC and the indirect radiative forcing.     

尼泊尔低喜马拉雅推覆带油源对比及油气成藏

尼泊尔低喜马拉雅推覆带油气苗来源不清极大地影响了该区油气勘探.在地质-地球物理综合调查的基础上,利用油气地球化学、碳同位素及生烃史模拟对尼泊尔代莱克地区油源和成藏过程进行了研究.结果表明:①尼泊尔代莱克地区油苗产于Padukasthan断裂,可分两期,第一期呈含油断层泥产出,氯仿沥青"A"为149～231 μg/g,RR.为0.81％,氯仿沥青"A"的δ13C相对较重(-26.24‰～-27.10‰),族组分具有正碳同位素序列,发黄绿色荧光,为典型的低熟煤成油,第二期呈液态油产出并遭受微生物降解,金刚烷IMD指数为0.33～0.45,R.为1.24％～1.53％,3,4-DMD含量46％～47％,全油δ13C为-29.50‰～-29.45‰,族组分碳同位素趋于一致,发蓝色荧光,为海相成因高熟油;②第一期油来源于Surkhet群的Melpani组和Gondwana群煤系烃源岩,为Ⅲ型有机质低熟阶段的产物,第二期来源于Surkhet群的Swat组浅海陆棚相黑色页岩,为Ⅱ1型有机质生油高峰的产物,两期油与Lakharpata群过成熟黑色泥岩和Siwalik群未熟泥岩没有亲缘关系;③尼泊尔低喜马拉雅推覆带具有"多源多期、推覆增熟、砂体控储、披覆控聚"的油气成藏模式,油气成藏过程可划分为沉积浅埋、构造圈闭形成、深埋油藏形成、气藏形成和晚期改造定型5个演化阶段;④尼泊尔低喜马拉雅推覆有利于Gondwana群、Surkhet群深埋增温、持续快速生烃和晚期成藏,对比邻区巴基斯坦的含油气盆地,尼泊尔低喜马拉雅推覆带及相邻类似地区具备良好的油气成藏条件.